45 N Walnut St · Winchester, IL 62694

$59,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

8,100 sqft lot Est $72k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this 1 1/2 story, three bedroom home on a large lot in Winchester. This 1,555 square foot home has potential written all over it. The main floor includes a kitchen, dining room, bedroom, full bathroom, living room with French and pocket doors, and a family room. Upstairs (unoccupied for several years) has two more bedrooms and a possible office/game room. You’ll love the wrap around front porch and unattached one car garage. Lot size is approximately 135’x60'. Residence selling “As Is” with inspections welcome.

Key facts

• Large lot
• 8,100 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• WRAP AROUND FRONT PORCH
• FRENCH AND POCKET DOORS
• POSSIBLE OFFICE GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Shingle roof
• Construction: Building area reported as 1555; Not new construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 135 x 60

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (bedroom sizes: 13 x 11.9; 14.6 x 11; 13.6 x 7.1); Bedrooms have egress windows
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring in several rooms; Carpet in some rooms; Laminate flooring in kitchen area; Vinyl flooring in additional room
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Partial basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#474 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Winchester CUSD 1 (rural): math 26% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #281 of 620 in IL (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Winchester High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #528 of 693 statewide, top 82%, 165 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 36% district-wide (36 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 28% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Winchester CUSD 1 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Scott County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $50k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $59,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.25%
• DSCR: 2.44
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,276
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 N Maple St	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,392 (+10%)	2mo	$35,000	$25	79
55 N Commercial St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,376 (+8%)	1mo	$50,000	$36	68
11 N Commercial St	0.38mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,343 (+6%)	6mo	$60,000	$45	63
240 E Cross St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,433 (+13%)	8mo	$82,000	$57	59
163 S Mechanic St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,128 (-11%)	8mo	$75,000	$66	53
158 S Mechanic St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,455 (+15%)	9mo	$100,000	$69	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $35,594
• Equity at exit: $26,752

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $86,826
• Equity at exit: $41,402

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62694

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $541/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $480

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $59,000 Active
3. 2017-11-30
   soldstatus $50,500
4. 2003-11-26
   soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $940 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$399/yr (+$33/mo · 73.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$541
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,000
• − Management: −$1,000
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $4,645
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,115
• After-tax cash flow: $4,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winchester CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1742660
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $47,710
• Composite: 23.9/100
• National rank: #7792
• State rank: #281 of 620 in IL

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #9790

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, IL
• Population (ZIP): 2,944

Population outlook (Scott County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,701 people
• By 2030: 4,451 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 3,970 · -15.5%
• By 2050: 3,445 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 2,371 · -49.6%
• By 2100: 1,506 · -68.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Scott

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.2) · D 18.9% · R 80.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.1pp toward R · 2008: -14.0pp · 2024: -61.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.2 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+26.5 2008: R+14.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.07%
• Current HPI: 71.3116
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+68.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $59,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $50,500 Public Records
• 2003-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $541 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.