199 Jeff Peay Rd · Mathiston, MS 39750

$30,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1962 1.73 ac lot ↓ 54% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special on 1.73 Acres! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,290 square feet of opportunity, sitting on a spacious 1.73-acre lot just outside of Maben. The structure will require a full rehab or teardown, but the value is in the land and location. With utilities in place and plenty of space to build, renovate, or develop, this property is a great canvas for your next flip, rental, or custom home project. Being sold as-is. No repairs will be made.

Key facts

• Utilities in place
• Spacious lot
• 1.73 acres

Tags

• 1.73 ACRES
• SPACIOUS LOT
• UTILITIES IN PLACE
• CANVAS FOR DEVELOPMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $813 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#37 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Oktibbeha County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Oktibbeha County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 116.19%
• DSCR: 6.17
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.07×
• Total profit: $59,417
• Equity at exit: $17,697

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.03×
• Total profit: $134,637
• Equity at exit: $31,136

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39750

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,347 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $969/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $813

Break-even live

Break-even rent $317

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $830	-5% $822	+0% $813	+5% $805	+10% $796
Rent	-10% $707	-5% $760	+0% $813	+5% $867	+10% $920
Rate	-1.0pp $828	-0.5pp $821	base $813	+0.5pp $806	+1.0pp $798

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-10-18
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-30
   price $30,000
3. 2025-09-09
   price $39,900
4. 2025-08-22
   price $49,000
5. 2025-08-18
   price $55,000
6. 2025-08-15
   price $60,000
7. 2025-08-07
   listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $969 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 44% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$969
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,293
• − Management: −$1,293
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $9,903
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,377
• After-tax cash flow: $7,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Mathiston

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #7197

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,932

Population outlook (Oktibbeha County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,451 people
• By 2030: 59,182 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 66,259 · +19.5%
• By 2050: 73,899 · +33.3%
• By 2075: 96,183 · +73.5%
• By 2100: 111,630 · +101.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 28% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oktibbeha

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 49.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.3pp no change · 2008: 0.0pp · 2024: -0.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.3 2020: D+6.5 2016: D+1.1 2012: D+1.9 2008: D+0.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Current HPI: 194.8557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-53.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-18 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $30,000 MLSU
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $39,900 MLSU
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $49,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $55,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $60,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-07 Listed $65,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $969 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.