206 Goose Creek Loop Rd · Bogue, NC 28570

$948,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,614 sqft · Other public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1954 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Exquisite waterfront living awaits along the tranquil shores of Goose Creek, where refined craftsmanship meets breathtaking coastal beauty. This fully reimagined 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence was taken down to the studs and completely renovated in 2023, then thoughtfully elevated above the flood plain--offering both elevated design and lasting peace of mind. Every detail of this home has been carefully curated with premium finishes and exceptional attention to detail. Improvements include a new foundation and subflooring, a new roof, all-new electrical systems (including panels, wiring, outlets, and switches), and completely updated plumbing throughout. Inside, you'll find seamless waterproof

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 70 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; On-site parking
• Utilities: Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Entry level: 1; Residential zoning
• Construction: Fiber cement and frame construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Front porch; Rear porch; Shed(s); Shingle roof; Paved road frontage (city street and state road); Waterfront access; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Accessible full bath
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Ceiling fan(s); Partially furnished; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $948k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $948k).
• Recommended offer: $891k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#311 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Carteret County Public Schools (rural): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #31 of 178 in NC (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: White Oak Elementary (math 76% / reading 65%, grade A-, #88 of 1,410 statewide, top 6%, 772 students, 100% FRL); Broad Creek Middle (math 63% / reading 68%, grade A-, #28 of 475 statewide, top 6%, 710 students, 100% FRL); Croatan High (math 82% / reading 78%, grade A, #73 of 535 statewide, top 13%, 974 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 39% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 72% at this address vs 60% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Carteret County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 935 units permitted in Carteret County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $10,231/mo this rent would consume 175% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 461% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carteret County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($891k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $280k; list at $948k implies a 239% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $891,120 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.92%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-82,865
• Equity at exit: $141,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $20,103
• Equity at exit: $81,966

Cash invested: $265,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28570

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,971
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,185 /mo · $14,220/yr
• Insurance: −$395
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,148
• Net cashflow: $1,104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,833

Max offer price $948,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,000
• Closing costs: $28,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $948,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $948,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $948,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $948,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $948,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $948,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $948,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $948,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-04-15
   price $948,000
10. 2026-03-29
    listed $998,000 Active
11. 2025-02-18
    historical
12. 2025-01-23
    listed $815,000 Active
13. 2023-12-18
    historical
14. 2023-10-27
    price $720,000
15. 2023-10-11
    price $740,000
16. 2023-09-25
    price $745,000
17. 2023-09-06
    price $755,000
18. 2023-08-21
    price $770,000
19. 2023-07-13
    listed $780,000 Active
20. 2021-11-18
    soldstatus $280,000
21. 2021-11-18
    soldstatus $280,000
22. 2021-08-30
    listed $279,900
23. 2009-12-30
    historical
24. 2009-03-17
    listed $499,000
25. 2008-11-30
    historical
26. 2008-02-17
    historical
27. 2008-02-12
    listed $499,900
28. 2007-05-17
    listed $549,000
29. 2005-09-01
    soldstatus $300,000
30. 2005-07-15
    historical
31. 2004-12-13
    listed $315,000
32. 2004-10-22
    soldstatus $178,500
33. 2004-04-29
    listed $200,000
34. 2003-05-06
    soldstatus $150,000
35. 2002-04-30
    listed $159,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $122,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,103
• − Property taxes: −$14,220
• − Insurance: −$9,858
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,822
• − Management: −$9,822
• − Depreciation: −$27,578
• Taxable loss: −$1,634
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$392
• After-tax cash flow: $13,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carteret County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700630
• Math proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,330
• Composite: 50.92/100
• National rank: #1786
• State rank: #31 of 178 in NC

Livability — Bogue

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #13024

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Carteret County · 52,389 people
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 22,197
• Household income: $70,229
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 461.0

Population outlook (Carteret County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 73,443 people
• By 2030: 75,344 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 78,142 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 80,091 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 86,120 · +17.3%
• By 2100: 89,408 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carteret

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.0% · R 71.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -34.7pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+42.0 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+34.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.54%
• Current HPI: 276.6589
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Morehead City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+492.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $948,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $998,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-02-18 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-01-23 Listed $815,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-12-18 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2023-10-27 Price Changed $720,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-10-11 Price Changed $740,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-09-25 Price Changed $745,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-09-06 Price Changed $755,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-08-21 Price Changed $770,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-07-13 Listed $780,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-18 Sold (MLS) $280,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-08-30 Listed $279,900 Hive MLS
• 2009-12-30 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2009-03-17 Listed $499,000 Hive MLS
• 2008-11-30 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2008-02-17 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2008-02-12 Listed $499,900 Hive MLS
• 2007-05-17 Listed $549,000 Hive MLS
• 2005-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2005-07-15 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2004-12-13 Listed $315,000 Hive MLS
• 2004-10-22 Sold (MLS) $178,500 Hive MLS
• 2004-04-29 Listed $200,000 Hive MLS
• 2003-05-06 Sold (MLS) $150,000 Hive MLS
• 2002-04-30 Listed $159,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,781 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.