Plan 1605 Modeled Plan · Uhland, TX 78640

$237,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,605 sqft · SingleFamily · 297 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Granite kitchen countertops * Covered back patio * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Open floor plan * Den * Kitchen USB charging port * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Walking paths * Close to family friendly parks * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to golf courses * Near beautiful lakes

Key facts

• Covered back patio
• Kitchen island
• Gas range

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• GAS RANGE

🏗️ New construction. The $237,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $284,708.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-394 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 577 students, 71% FRL); D J Red Simon Middle (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 733 students, 78% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 43% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hays CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2701 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,170 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.93%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,708
• List price: $237,995
• Delta: -16.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Sandringham Loop	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,615 (+1%)	9mo	$275,990	$171	82
162 Sandringham Loop	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,615 (+1%)	8mo	$264,990	$164	80
519 Sandringham Loop	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,521 (-5%)	4mo	$225,900	$149	76
218 Salkeld Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+12%)	1mo	$322,490	$180	74
277 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,696 (+6%)	9mo	$279,990	$165	73
332 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,696 (+6%)	8mo	$277,990	$164	72
317 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,696 (+6%)	7mo	$284,530	$168	72
390 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-11%)	1mo	$235,214	$164	70
381 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-11%)	5mo	$239,990	$167	67
464 Sandringham Loop	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,470 (-8%)	6mo	$239,570	$163	65
472 Sandringham Loop	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-11%)	6mo	$239,990	$167	64
441 Sandringham Loop	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-11%)	7mo	$239,990	$167	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-77,043
• Equity at exit: $42,451

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-121,845
• Equity at exit: $24,616

Cash invested: $79,718 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.2 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,990 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 283 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2701
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,493
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,271/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,491

Max offer price $227,680

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-197	-5% $-296	+0% $-394	+5% $-492	+10% $-591
Rent	-10% $-551	-5% $-473	+0% $-394	+5% $-315	+10% $-237
Rate	-1.0pp $-251	-0.5pp $-322	base $-394	+0.5pp $-468	+1.0pp $-543

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,177
• Closing costs: $8,541
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
456 Sandringham Loop Kyle, TX	5.0	2.5	1892	$2,250	$1.19	123d	1	0.17mi
408 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,695	$1.11	134d	1	0.32mi
133 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,800	$1.17	74d	1	0.38mi
191 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$1,899	$0.92	184d	1	0.38mi
235 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2034	$1,990	$0.98	69d	1	0.39mi
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1525	$1,329	$0.87	10d	1	1.08mi
151 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	164d	1	1.27mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	164d	1	1.27mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	184d	1	1.27mi
142 Pink Footed Pass Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,675	$1.19	10d	1	1.30mi
142 Pink Footed Pass Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,675	$1.19	29d	1	1.30mi
300 Wilhem Way Uhland, TX	3.0	2.5	1886	$2,300	$1.22	10d	1	1.31mi
785 Whoopers Loop Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,698	$1.05	74d	1	1.35mi
785 Whoopers Loop Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,698	$1.05	55d	1	1.35mi
263 Speckled Belly Bnd Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,600	$1.00	125d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $237,995 Active 297 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $237,995 Active 296 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $237,995 Active 295 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $237,995 Active 294 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $237,995 Active 293 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   price $237,995 Active 291 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $235,995 Active 291 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $235,995 Active 290 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $235,995 Active 289 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $235,995 Active 288 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $235,995 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $235,995 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $235,995 Active 285 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $235,995 Active 284 DOM
15. 2026-10-25
    days on market $235,995 Active 283 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $235,995 Active 282 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $235,995 Active 281 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $235,995 Active 280 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $235,995 Active 279 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $235,995 Active 278 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $235,995 Active 277 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $235,995 Active 276 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $235,995 Active 275 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $235,995 Active 274 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $235,995 Active 273 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $235,995 Active 272 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $235,995 Active 271 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $235,995 Active 270 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $235,995 Active 269 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $235,995 Active 268 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $235,995 Active 267 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $235,995 Active 266 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $235,995 Active 265 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $235,995 Active 264 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $235,995 Active 263 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $235,995 Active 262 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $235,995 Active 261 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $235,995 Active 260 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $235,995 Active 259 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $235,995 Active 258 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $235,995 Active 257 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $235,995 Active 256 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $235,995 Active 255 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $235,995 Active 253 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $235,995 Active 252 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $235,995 Active 251 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $235,995 Active 250 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $235,995 Active 249 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $235,995 Active 248 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $235,995 Active 247 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,948
• − Property taxes: −$4,271
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,912
• − Management: −$1,912
• − Depreciation: −$8,282
• Taxable loss: −$9,848
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,364
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,366/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It is located in a family-friendly area with playgrounds and walking paths, making it ideal for families and outdoor enthusiasts.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Playground — Attracts families and enhances community appeal ↑
• Both Walking paths — Improves accessibility and outdoor recreation ↑
• Both Outdoor recreation nearby — Enhances property's appeal for families and outdoor enthusiasts ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hemphill El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle D J Red Simon Middle F TX #1,466/1,662 Nat'l #11,948/14,009 High Lehman H S F TX #1,234/1,632 Nat'l #12,251/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Uhland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1385
• US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $239,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $243,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $248,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-15 Listed $258,995 Zillow