Is Plan 1605 Modeled Plan in Uhland, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.8% cap rate and $-360/mo modeled cash flow at a $235,995 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Plan 1605 Modeled Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,037/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 30.21

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +7.5/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +2.7/5.0
Rent growth +2.4/5.0
Schools +2.4/10.0
1% rule +2.1/10.0
DSCR +1.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$235,995

Plan 1605 Modeled Plan · Uhland, TX 78640

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,605 sqft · SingleFamily · 252 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

* Granite kitchen countertops * Covered back patio * Dedicated laundry room * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Kitchen island * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Open floor plan * Den * Kitchen USB charging port * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Walking paths * Close to family friendly parks * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to golf courses * Near beautiful lakes

Key facts

Covered back patio
Kitchen island
Gas range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $236k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-360 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (1.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (13.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $204k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 577 students, 71% FRL); D J Red Simon Middle (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 733 students, 78% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 43% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hays CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2407 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 81d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,744 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.71% ✗
Cap rate: 4.78%
Cash-on-cash: -5.42%
DSCR: 0.76
GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $285,028
List price: $235,995
Delta: -17.20%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Sandringham Loop	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,615 (+1%)	7mo	$275,990	$171	83
162 Sandringham Loop	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,615 (+1%)	6mo	$264,990	$164	82
449 Frogmore Loop	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,608 (+0%)	8mo	$270,990	$169	77
519 Sandringham Loop	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,521 (-5%)	3mo	$225,900	$149	77
345 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-4%)	9mo	$279,990	$182	74
277 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,696 (+6%)	8mo	$279,990	$165	74
332 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,696 (+6%)	7mo	$277,990	$164	74
317 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,696 (+6%)	6mo	$284,530	$168	73
381 Ebbsfleet Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-11%)	3mo	$239,990	$167	68
464 Sandringham Loop	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,470 (-8%)	4mo	$239,570	$163	67
472 Sandringham Loop	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-11%)	4mo	$239,990	$167	65
441 Sandringham Loop	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-11%)	6mo	$239,990	$167	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -28.9%
Equity multiple: 0.06×
Total profit: $-75,068
Equity at exit: $42,499

10-year hold

IRR: -46.6%
Equity multiple: -0.48×
Total profit: $-117,857
Equity at exit: $24,644

Cash invested: $79,808 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 19 active · 11 under contract
Months of supply: 14.2 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $279,990 ($178/sqft)
Median days on market: 238 d
This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -0.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

Home prices YoY: -33.8%
Rents YoY: -0.3%
Active inventory: 2407
Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,037 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
Insurance: −$119
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
Net cashflow: $-360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,493

Max offer price $232,908

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-163	-5% $-262	+0% $-360	+5% $-459	+10% $-557
Rent	-10% $-521	-5% $-441	+0% $-360	+5% $-280	+10% $-199
Rate	-1.0pp $-217	-0.5pp $-288	base $-360	+0.5pp $-434	+1.0pp $-509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $71,257
Closing costs: $8,551
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
456 Sandringham Loop Kyle, TX	5.0	2.5	1892	$2,250	$1.19	78d	1	0.17mi
176 Gerasa Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2064	$2,100	$1.02	94d	1	0.19mi
408 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,695	$1.11	88d	1	0.32mi
133 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,800	$1.17	29d	1	0.38mi
191 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$1,899	$0.92	139d	1	0.38mi
235 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2034	$1,990	$0.98	24d	1	0.39mi
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1512	$1,399	$0.93	3d	1	1.08mi
151 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	119d	1	1.27mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	119d	1	1.27mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	139d	1	1.27mi
300 Wilhem Way Uhland, TX	3.0	2.5	1886	$2,500	$1.33	9d	1	1.31mi
785 Whoopers Loop Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,698	$1.05	29d	1	1.35mi
785 Whoopers Loop Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,698	$1.05	9d	1	1.35mi
263 Speckled Belly Bnd Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,600	$1.00	80d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $235,995 Active 252 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $235,995 Active 251 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $235,995 Active 250 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $235,995 Active 249 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $235,995 Active 248 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $235,995 Active 247 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $235,995 Active 246 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $235,995 Active 245 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $235,995 Active 244 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $235,995 Active 243 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $235,995 Active 242 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $235,995 Active 241 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $235,995 Active 240 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $235,995 Active 239 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $235,995 Active 233 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $235,995 Active 232 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $235,995 Active 231 DOM
2026-08-31

pricedays on market $235,995 Active 228 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $233,995 Active 227 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $233,995 Active 226 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $233,995 Active 225 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $233,995 Active 224 DOM
2026-08-25

pricedays on market $233,995 Active 222 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $230,995 Active 221 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $230,995 Active 220 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $230,995 Active 219 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $230,995 Active 218 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $230,995 Active 217 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $230,995 Active 216 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $230,995 Active 215 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $230,995 Active 214 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $230,995 Active 213 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $230,995 Active 212 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $230,995 Active 211 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $230,995 Active 210 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $230,995 Active 208 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $230,995 Active 207 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $230,995 Active 206 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $230,995 Active 205 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $230,995 Active 203 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $230,995 Active 202 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $230,995 Active 201 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $230,995 Active 200 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $230,995 Active 197 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $230,995 Active 195 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $230,995 Active 194 DOM
2026-07-26

pricedays on market $230,995 Active 192 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $233,995 Active 190 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $233,995 Active 189 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $233,995 Active 188 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $24,449
− Mortgage interest: −$15,966
− Property taxes: −$4,275
− Insurance: −$1,425
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,956
− Management: −$1,956
− Depreciation: −$8,292
Taxable loss: −$9,421

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,261
After-tax cash flow: $-2,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It is located in a family-friendly area with playgrounds and walking paths, making it ideal for families and outdoor enthusiasts.

Value-add opportunities

Both Playground — Attracts families and enhances community appeal ↑
Both Walking paths — Improves accessibility and outdoor recreation ↑
Both Outdoor recreation nearby — Enhances property's appeal for families and outdoor enthusiasts ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hemphill El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle D J Red Simon Middle F TX #1,466/1,662 Nat'l #11,948/14,009 High Lehman H S F TX #1,234/1,632 Nat'l #12,251/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Hays CISD
NCES district ID: 4800010
Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $70,570
Composite: 34.78/100
National rank: #5118
State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Uhland

Score: 54/100
State rank: #1385
US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Hays County · 286,948 people
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP): 77,531
Household income: $90,075
Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 286,948 people
By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
Current HPI: 181.7969
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-7.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-05-08 Price Changed $239,995 Zillow
2026-04-17 Price Changed $243,995 Zillow
2026-02-19 Price Changed $248,995 Zillow
2026-01-15 Listed $258,995 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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