11 B Ln · Herrin, IL 62948

$22,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 961 sqft · Other · 57 Days on market

Built 1940

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this classic 3 bedroom, 1 bath single-family home built in 1940, nestled in the established Egyptian Heights Subdivision in Herrin, Illinois (Williamson County). This charming 2-story residence sits on a compact corner lot of about 0.0594 acres (roughly 2,586 sq ft or 1/2 lot per the legal description: Egyptian Heights Sub Div 1/2 Lot, Lot 51), offering a prime location in a quiet, family-friendly neighborhood known for its affordable homes and convenient access to local amenities. With solid bones and timeless appeal, the property features original hardwood flooring and beautiful woodwork that whisper of its historic character—perfect for restoration enthusiasts. Recent upda

Key facts

• Newer windows
• Newer metal roof
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• NEWER METAL ROOF
• NEWER WINDOWS
• VINYL SIDING EXTERIOR
• WELCOMING PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $689 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 43.0% vs local median 8.5% in Herrin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#667 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Herrin CUSD 4 (suburban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #364 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $156 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $675 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $21,825 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 131.14%
• DSCR: 6.84
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.38×
• Total profit: $40,221
• Equity at exit: $3,355

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.53×
• Total profit: $91,555
• Equity at exit: $1,945

Cash invested: $6,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62948

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,068 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$118
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$28 /mo · $338/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $689

Break-even live

Break-even rent $197

Max offer price $22,500

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $704	-5% $696	+0% $689	+5% $681	+10% $673
Rent	-10% $604	-5% $646	+0% $689	+5% $731	+10% $773
Rate	-1.0pp $700	-0.5pp $694	base $689	+0.5pp $683	+1.0pp $677

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,625
• Closing costs: $675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Ct D Herrin, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	44d	1	0.11mi
6 Court C Herrin, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	44d	1	0.13mi
715 N 35th St Unit D Herrin, IL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,200	$1.41	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-22
   soldstatus Closed
2. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-30
   price $22,500
4. 2026-03-02
   price $32,500
5. 2026-02-22
   price $42,500
6. 2026-02-03
   listed $52,500 Active
7. 2024-01-26
   soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,260
• − Property taxes: −$338
• − Insurance: −$112
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,026
• − Management: −$1,026
• − Depreciation: −$655
• Taxable income: $8,404
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,017
• After-tax cash flow: $6,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herrin CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1718810
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $38,824
• Composite: 20.56/100
• National rank: #8558
• State rank: #364 of 620 in IL

Livability — Herrin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #667
• US rank: #13670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herrin, IL
• City population: 12,728
• Population (ZIP): 12,728

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.82%
• Current HPI: 131.1617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-77.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $22,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $32,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $42,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Listed $52,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,146 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.