2 Dogwood Ln · Oildale, CA 93308

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $49k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Riverdale Village mobile home has a new face on life with a recent renovation, new flooring, laminate flooring, all new fresh paint. remodeled bathroom and kitchen. This mobile home is clean, fresh and ready for new owners. Turn-key move in ready.

Key facts

• Built 1986
• Listed 3 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $634 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Cap rate 23.2% vs local median 3.9% in Oildale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#680 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, schools B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Beardsley Elementary (suburban): math 7% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #501 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $45k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.42%
• DSCR: 3.69
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $48,960
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77 Cinnamon Ln	0.10mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	2mo	$43,000	$64	83
324 Nita Ln	0.24mi	2/1.0	732 (+2%)	5mo	$50,000	$68	82
279 Teakwood Ln	0.20mi	2/1.5	720 (0%)	16mo	$75,000	$104	76
188 Kings Ln	0.20mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	20mo	$61,000	$85	74
287 Florence Ln	0.20mi	2/2.0	790 (+10%)	1mo	$17,500	$22	70
281 Teakwood Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0	764 (+6%)	9mo	$50,000	$65	68
166 Hickorywood Ln	0.26mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	24mo	$62,000	$86	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $32,218
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $76,456
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93308

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $160/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $634

Break-even live

Break-even rent $339

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
117 Harris Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	560	$1,300	$2.32	18d	1	0.23mi
502 Beardsley Ave Unit T Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	624	$950	$1.52	43d	1	0.49mi
313 Beardsley Ave Unit 315 B Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$850	$1.55	2d	1	0.71mi
214 Beardsley Ave Unit 11 Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$950	$1.46	2d	1	0.81mi
214 Beardsley Ave Unit 12 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	655	$1,095	$1.67	2d	1	0.81mi
214 Beardsley Ave Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	450	$850	$1.89	2d	1	0.81mi
611 Wilson Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,195	$1.59	43d	1	0.83mi
210 Beardsley Ave Unit 8 Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$895	$1.38	2d	1	0.83mi
1405 Yosemite Dr Unit 1405 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	712	$1,100	$1.54	43d	1	0.98mi
1319 Wilson Ave Apt E Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$850	$1.42	2d	1	1.03mi
611 Ann Arbor Dr Unit A Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,100	$1.69	43d	1	1.03mi
126 Wilson Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$850	$1.31	14d	1	1.20mi
701 Lilac St Unit 1/2 Bakersfield, CA	1.0	1.0	400	$895	$2.24	2d	1	1.27mi
1905 McCray St Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	736	$1,450	$1.97	2d	1	1.31mi
615 W China Grade Loop Bakersfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,850	$2.11	2d	6	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 197-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $45,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $160 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $342 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: +$182/yr (+$15/mo · 113.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$160
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,097
• − Management: −$1,097
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $7,301
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,752
• After-tax cash flow: $5,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beardsley Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0604260
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $28,808
• Composite: 9.63/100
• National rank: #9841
• State rank: #501 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oildale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #680
• US rank: #20848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oildale, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 55,078
• Household income: $62,445
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2931.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 825.65
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.22%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+136.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $45,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-08-01 Sold (MLS) $19,000 GEMLS
• 2018-05-16 Pending — GEMLS
• 2018-04-17 Listed $19,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $160 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.