4290 Cedar Valley Ln · Conley, GA 30288

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,689 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1969 0.43 ac lot $142/sqft · 18% below area Est $292k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful spacious brick ranch home, on an unfinished basement, in a peaceful established and well-maintained community. Minutes from downtown Atlanta. Private fenced in backyard, with a detached two car garage. Also, a carport. perfect home for a first-time homeowner, a family or an empty nester, looking to downsize. A must see! "Sold As Is". Use Showing Time to schedule a tour/showing. Property is vacant and move in ready. On Supra Lockbox.

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Brick ranch home
• 0.43 acre lot

Tags

• BRICK RANCH HOME
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN ATLANTA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#299 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #873 of 1,228 statewide, top 71%, 565 students, 100% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #433 of 470 statewide, top 93%, 777 students, 100% FRL); Cedar Grove High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #336 of 424 statewide, top 80%, 1,123 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,026/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 213% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $240k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,585 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.19%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,625
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -17.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2150 Cedar Valley Way	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-5%)	21mo	$255,000	$159	65
2009 Redwood Trce	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,548 (-8%)	1mo	$250,000	$161	61
4169 Cedar Valley Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,516 (-10%)	13mo	$265,000	$175	60
4216 Connor Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+6%)	12mo	$70,000	$39	59
2000 Redwood Trce	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,548 (-8%)	12mo	$215,000	$139	53
4252 Loveless Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,898 (+12%)	18mo	$315,000	$166	46
2177 Pineview Trl	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,460 (-14%)	14mo	$270,000	$185	44
1983 Smithfield Ave	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,933 (+14%)	3mo	$288,000	$149	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-46,622
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-50,359
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30288

• Home prices YoY: -12.9%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$364 /mo · $4,372/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,181

Max offer price $218,361

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-55	+0% $-122	+5% $-190	+10% $-258
Rent	-10% $-283	-5% $-203	+0% $-122	+5% $-42	+10% $38
Rate	-1.0pp $-2	-0.5pp $-61	base $-122	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4265 Loveless Pl Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,715	$1.20	24d	1	0.08mi
2274 Silver Maple Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,000	$1.20	26d	1	0.27mi
2141 Silva Ct Conley, GA	4.0	2.5	2097	$2,180	$1.04	26d	1	0.33mi
4197 Grant Forest Cir Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	2208	$2,300	$1.04	46d	1	0.42mi
2010 Redwood Trce Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	2036	$2,079	$1.02	24d	1	0.43mi
4149 Connor Dr Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	1288	$2,000	$1.55	46d	1	0.50mi
3679 Bouldercrest Rd Ellenwood, GA	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	46d	1	0.55mi
3691 Connor Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	46d	1	0.57mi
1793 Cedar Walk Ln Conley, GA	3.0	2.0	2143	$1,950	$0.91	46d	1	0.70mi
3912 Old Ivy Ct Ellenwood, GA	3.0	1.5	1718	$2,000	$1.16	46d	1	0.71mi
2503 Brookgate Way Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,215	$1.15	23d	1	0.74mi
2340 Brookgate Way Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,024	$1.05	23d	1	0.80mi
3128 Bouldercrest Rd Ellenwood, GA	4.0	1.5	1200	$1,728	$1.44	15d	1	1.08mi
2327 Tolliver Pl Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	1688	$2,111	$1.25	46d	1	1.09mi
3981 Ivy Trace Ln Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,184	$1.36	26d	1	1.11mi
4007 Moore Creek Dr Conley, GA	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	21d	1	1.15mi
4136 Moore Rd Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,981	$1.05	46d	1	1.19mi
4153 Ward Lake Trl Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,930	$1.32	46d	1	1.25mi
2616 Micah Dr Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	2011	$1,985	$0.99	46d	1	1.30mi
2882 Ward Lake Way Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	1685	$1,676	$0.99	46d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 202 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 201 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 200 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $240,000 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-03-31
   status Active 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   Beautiful spacious brick ranch home, on an unfinished basement, in a peaceful established and well-maintained community. Minutes from downtown Atlanta. Private fenced in backyard, with a detached two car garage. Also, a carport. perfect home for a first-time homeowner, a family or an empty nester, looking to downsize. A must see! "Sold As Is". Use Showing Time to schedule a tour/showing. Property is vacant and move in ready. On Supra Lockbox.

9. 2026-03-01
   price $240,000 458-char remark

   Show marketing remark (458 chars)

   Beautiful spacious brick ranch home, on an unfinished basement, in a peaceful established and well-maintained community. Minutes from downtown Atlanta. Private fenced in backyard, with a detached two car garage. Also, a carport. perfect home for a first-time homeowner, a family or an empty nester, looking to downsize. A must see! "Sold As Is". Use Showing Time to schedule a tour/showing. Property is vacant and move in ready. On Supra Lockbox.

10. 2026-02-25
    price $240,000 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Beautiful spacious brick ranch home, on an unfinished basement, in a peaceful established and well-maintained community. Minutes from downtown Atlanta. Private fenced in backyard, with a detached two car garage. Also, a carport. perfect home for a first-time homeowner, a family or an empty nester, looking to downsize. A must see! "Sold As Is". Use Showing Time to schedule a tour/showing. Property is vacant and move in ready. On Supra Lockbox.

11. 2025-11-12
    listed $255,000 Active 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Beautiful spacious brick ranch home, on an unfinished basement, in a peaceful established and well-maintained community. Minutes from downtown Atlanta. Private fenced in backyard, with a detached two car garage. Also, a carport. perfect home for a first-time homeowner, a family or an empty nester, looking to downsize. A must see! "Sold As Is". Use Showing Time to schedule a tour/showing. Property is vacant and move in ready. On Supra Lockbox.

12. 2025-11-12
    listed $255,000 New 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    Beautiful spacious brick ranch home, on an unfinished basement, in a peaceful established and well-maintained community. Minutes from downtown Atlanta. Private fenced in backyard, with a detached two car garage. Also, a carport. perfect home for a first-time homeowner, a family or an empty nester, looking to downsize. A must see! "Sold As Is". Use Showing Time to schedule a tour/showing. Property is vacant and move in ready. On Supra Lockbox.

13. 1994-01-24
    soldstatus $77,500
14. 1987-02-27
    soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,372 · $364/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,372 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$4,372
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$5,577
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,338
• After-tax cash flow: $-131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb County
• NCES district ID: 1301740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,448
• Composite: 20.92/100
• National rank: #8482
• State rank: #125 of 174 in GA

Livability — Conley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #16248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Dekalb County · 782,738 people
• City population: 8,116
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 8,116
• Household income: $51,511
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 213.0

Population outlook (DeKalb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 839,977 people
• By 2030: 891,768 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 988,894 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 1,074,583 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 1,245,026 · +48.2%
• By 2100: 1,303,135 · +55.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% Hispanic / Latino 13% White 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 12% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeKalb

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 81.9% · R 17.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.1pp toward D · 2008: 58.6pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+67.4 2016: D+64.8 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.96%
• Current HPI: 222.5766
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+252.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Relisted — FMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $240,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $240,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $255,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $255,000 FMLS
• 1994-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records
• 1987-02-27 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,372 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.