1203 Penick Rd · Waller, TX 77484

$160,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,126 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1924 0.30 ac lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks

PRICED TO SELL! Lovely 4 bedroom, 3 full bath home in the City of Waller. Home was originally built in 1924 and added onto in 1968. Original portion has been rewired and newer portion has had insulation added. Home sits on two unrestricted corner lots and includes Living room, formal dining room, den, breakfast room, utility room, 4 cedar closets, 6 ceiling fans, large pantry and 4 lazy susan's. Flexible floor plan ideal for mother-in-law quarters or home office/business. Home is wheelchair accessible. This property also has commercial potential for a small business. Needs a little TLC.

Key facts

• Cedar closets
• Ceiling fans
• Large pantry

Tags

• CORNER LOTS
• CEDAR CLOSETS
• CEILING FANS
• LARGE PANTRY
• WHEELCHAIR ACCESSIBLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt road access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Corner lot; Lot cleared
• Construction: Built in 1924; Wood siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Fully fenced yard; Private yard; Storage shed(s); Handicap accessible exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 9 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Wheelchair accessible
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.0% in Waller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,003 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1183 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.83%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $342,286
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2215 Penick Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,174 (+2%)	8mo	$349,000	$161	54
2710 Dewey St	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,808 (-15%)	19mo	$305,000	$169	41
2506 Myrtle St	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,438 (+15%)	12mo	$365,000	$150	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-6,030
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,308
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1183
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,486/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,514

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
510 Alliance St Waller, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,900	$1.06	44d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $160,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 594-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $160,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,486 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,486 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,486
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $2,518
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$604
• After-tax cash flow: $4,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waller

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1003
• US rank: #17792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waller, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-05-01 Listed $186,000 HARMLS
• 2006-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,486 · +12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.