5870 SE 158th Ct · Silver Springs Shores East, FL 32179

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,198 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2006 0.27 ac lot Est $219k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2006 Homes needs love to make your dream home. Walk into the living room then to dining area with a door to outside. Home has three bedroom split plan, Master has a large walk in closet. This home is located near the Moss Bluff Loack and a block away from the Woods and Lakes Air Park. Must see if you want peace and quiet. BUyer needs to verify room measurments.

Key facts

• Living room
• Dining area
• Walk in closet

Tags

• LIVING ROOM
• DINING AREA
• WALK IN CLOSET
• WOODS AND LAKES AIR PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 5.2% in Silver Springs Shores East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Marion Elementary School (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,773 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 620 students, 79% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 431 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $150k implies a 512% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.07%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,234
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6465 SE 159 Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	23mo	$222,000	$183	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-8,465
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $13,241
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32179

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Active inventory: 431
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,239/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,416

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $332	-5% $290	+0% $248	+5% $205	+10% $163
Rent	-10% $111	-5% $179	+0% $248	+5% $316	+10% $384
Rate	-1.0pp $323	-0.5pp $286	base $248	+0.5pp $209	+1.0pp $169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17200 SE 56th St Ocklawaha, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,500	$1.18	22d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-31
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 2025-03-09
   status Pending
4. 2025-03-09
   historical
5. 2025-02-25
   price $159,900
6. 2025-02-01
   price $169,900
7. 2025-01-21
   listed $179,900 Active
8. 2022-10-07
   status Pending
9. 2022-10-06
   historical
10. 2022-08-15
    listed $195,000 Active
11. 2005-07-01
    soldstatus $24,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,239 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,239 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,239
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $682
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$164
• After-tax cash flow: $2,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores East

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,318
• Household income: $46,512
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.21%
• Current HPI: 242.0408
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+512.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-31 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-25 Price Changed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-21 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-15 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,239 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.