1305 LA Estrellita Way · The Villages, FL 32162

$320,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 2000 8,250 sqft lot Est $440k · 27% under $205/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLER IS SERIOUS! Huge price reduction makes this home an incredible price for 1800+ sqft in The Villages! Nestled in the highly sought-after Village of Santiago, this charming home is perfectly situated on a quiet cul-de-sac, offering a harmonious blend of recreation and convenience. Just a short walk to the Santiago Recreation Center, you'll have access to pickleball, tennis, shuffleboard, and golf at El Diablo or El Santiago, as well as numerous other activities. Its prime central location ensures a quick golf cart ride to the vibrant entertainment of Spanish Springs, the Savannah Center, the tranquil beauty of Lake Sumter Landing, and the wealth of shopping, dining, banking, and medic

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Bond-paid
• Quiet cul-de-sac

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• CENTRAL LOCATION
• BOND-PAID
• MOVE-IN READY
• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $320k).
• Recommended offer: $310k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,335/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $310,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.69%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $439,714
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1305 LA Estrellita Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,817 (0%)	0mo	$290,000	$160	100
2450 Merida Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,851 (+2%)	3mo	$350,000	$189	86
1302 Fortaleza Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,798 (-1%)	3mo	$615,000	$342	81
2012 Enrique Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,842 (+1%)	2mo	$550,000	$299	64
1404 Valparaiso St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,892 (+4%)	2mo	$335,000	$177	63
1117 Saldivar Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,878 (+3%)	7mo	$485,000	$258	63
2630 Caribe Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-8%)	2mo	$320,000	$191	56
2012 Santo Domingo Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,924 (+6%)	7mo	$465,000	$242	55
2622 Caribe Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,647 (-9%)	4mo	$400,000	$243	50
1506 Canales Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	2,066 (+14%)	2mo	$450,000	$218	46
2705 LA Posada Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,647 (-9%)	7mo	$300,000	$182	42
2101 Barbosa Ct	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-15%)	4mo	$400,000	$258	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-21,630
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $29,232
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,317/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$205
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$700
• Net cashflow: $425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,797

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $606	-5% $515	+0% $425	+5% $334	+10% $244
Rent	-10% $161	-5% $293	+0% $425	+5% $557	+10% $688
Rate	-1.0pp $586	-0.5pp $506	base $425	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	23d	1	0.57mi
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	23d	1	0.58mi
2137 Gerardo Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$5,600	$2.89	23d	1	0.74mi
1505 Doria Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	2048	$3,500	$1.71	23d	1	0.81mi
2002 Salinas Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1642	$5,500	$3.35	23d	1	1.04mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	23d	1	1.07mi
3057 Saint Thomas Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2044	$2,850	$1.39	23d	1	1.11mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	23d	1	1.32mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	23d	1	1.34mi
17582 SE 96th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1652	$1,750	$1.06	23d	1	1.38mi
13904 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,550	$0.99	23d	1	1.38mi
6367 NE 118th Ave The Villages, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1645	$1,925	$1.17	23d	10	1.38mi
13957 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	23d	1	1.42mi
888 Radclife Berea Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,200	$3.26	23d	1	1.44mi
3301 Archer Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	2117	$5,000	$2.36	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $205 · $2,460/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-07
   price $320,000
3. 2026-02-20
   listed $349,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,317 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,656 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$339/yr (+$28/mo · 14.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$2,317
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,201
• − Management: −$3,201
• − HOA: −$2,460
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable income: $2
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1
• After-tax cash flow: $5,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $349,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,317 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.