3852 Sherwood Rd · Moravia, NY 13118

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2001 5.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Your private 5.6-acre retreat is ready for its next chapter. Built in 2001, this 1,568-square-foot ranch-style home offers a straightforward, functional layout designed for easy, single-level living. The interior features gorgeous hardwood floors throughout the main living areas and the comfort of central air conditioning. The property is defined by its expansive acreage and gorgeous views that overlook the surrounding landscape. Outside, a blacktop driveway leads to the residence, which includes a covered entry —ideal for enjoying the outdoors regardless of the weather. For those with a green thumb or a need for extra storage, two garden sheds provide plenty of space for tools and eq

Key facts

• Expansive acreage
• Blacktop driveway
• 5.6 acre retreat

Tags

• 5.6 ACRE RETREAT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• EXPANSIVE ACREAGE
• BLACKTOP DRIVEWAY
• COVERED ENTRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Double wide mobile home; Single-story (1 story); Existing property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Crawl space
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Owned propane tank; Shed(s) and storage; Irregular lot; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, both on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; Propane water heater
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Pantry; Bedroom on main level; Primary bedroom with private bath; Main level primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.8% in Moravia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#357 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Southern Cayuga Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #214 of 590 in NY (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southern Cayuga Elementary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 361 students, 52% FRL); Southern Cayuga 7-12 Secondary School (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #851 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 295 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $246,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.69%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $157,215
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.38×
• Total profit: $446,296
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13118

• Home prices YoY: 29.3%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,475 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,508/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,055

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $473	-5% $403	+0% $332	+5% $261	+10% $190
Rent	-10% $136	-5% $234	+0% $332	+5% $430	+10% $527
Rate	-1.0pp $458	-0.5pp $395	base $332	+0.5pp $267	+1.0pp $201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   historical Active Under Contract 832-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $249,900 Active 832-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,366 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: +$858/yr (+$71/mo · 34.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,508
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,376
• − Management: −$2,376
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$74
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$18
• After-tax cash flow: $4,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Cayuga Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3627570
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $61,177
• Composite: 52.98/100
• National rank: #1524
• State rank: #214 of 590 in NY

Livability — Moravia

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #6025

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,514

Population outlook (Cayuga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 74,820 people
• By 2030: 72,402 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 66,917 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 61,007 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 48,047 · -35.8%
• By 2100: 34,512 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cayuga

• 2024 margin: R (+13.0) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.5pp · 2024: -13.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.0 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.2 2012: D+10.8 2008: D+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 82.97%
• Current HPI: 366.5746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $249,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,508 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.