81821 Virginia Rd · Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,074 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 607 Days on market

Built 1958 17 ac lot $140/sqft · 27% below area Est $206k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Imagine, 17 beautiful Mojave Acres! This charming, two-bedroom, one bath home sits on a wide spread of beautiful land that will give you all the privacy and solitude you could ever ask for. This rustic beauty could use some updating and attention but with the spectacular views and gorgeous surroundings, it will be well worth the effort. On the east side of the property there is a slab foundation and a 2nd power pole. The property would be perfect for an investor or someone seeking to create their desert getaway. Bring your tools and come see something very special today!

Key facts

• Slab foundation
• Wide spread of land
• 2nd power pole

Tags

• WIDE SPREAD OF LAND
• SPECTACULAR VIEWS
• SLAB FOUNDATION
• 2ND POWER POLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.1% in Twentynine Palms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment D-, health & safety F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Twentynine Palms Elementary (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,335 of 1,571 statewide, top 85%, 548 students, 47% FRL); Twentynine Palms Junior High (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #236 of 498 statewide, top 48%, 413 students, 63% FRL); Twentynine Palms High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 729 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 754 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 607 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $150k implies a 1150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 607 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.36%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,180
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -27.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
81320 Brown Rd	0.65mi	2/1.0	964 (-10%)	3mo	$268,000	$278	50
81833 Panorama Dr	0.47mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,192 (+11%)	5mo	$67,000	$56	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,607
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $25,913
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92277

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 754
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,555 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,462/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,229

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $343	-5% $300	+0% $258	+5% $215	+10% $173
Rent	-10% $135	-5% $196	+0% $258	+5% $319	+10% $381
Rate	-1.0pp $333	-0.5pp $296	base $258	+0.5pp $219	+1.0pp $179

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $150,000 Active 607 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 606 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 603 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 602 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 601 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 600 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 598 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 597 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 594 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 593 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 592 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 589 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 588 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 587 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 586 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 585 DOM
17. 2025-09-04
    price $150,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Imagine, 17 beautiful Mojave Acres! This charming, two-bedroom, one bath home sits on a wide spread of beautiful land that will give you all the privacy and solitude you could ever ask for. This rustic beauty could use some updating and attention but with the spectacular views and gorgeous surroundings, it will be well worth the effort. On the east side of the property there is a slab foundation and a 2nd power pole. The property would be perfect for an investor or someone seeking to create their desert getaway. Bring your tools and come see something very special today!

18. 2025-04-11
    price $160,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Imagine, 17 beautiful Mojave Acres! This charming, two-bedroom, one bath home sits on a wide spread of beautiful land that will give you all the privacy and solitude you could ever ask for. This rustic beauty could use some updating and attention but with the spectacular views and gorgeous surroundings, it will be well worth the effort. On the east side of the property there is a slab foundation and a 2nd power pole. The property would be perfect for an investor or someone seeking to create their desert getaway. Bring your tools and come see something very special today!

19. 2024-11-24
    price $175,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Imagine, 17 beautiful Mojave Acres! This charming, two-bedroom, one bath home sits on a wide spread of beautiful land that will give you all the privacy and solitude you could ever ask for. This rustic beauty could use some updating and attention but with the spectacular views and gorgeous surroundings, it will be well worth the effort. On the east side of the property there is a slab foundation and a 2nd power pole. The property would be perfect for an investor or someone seeking to create their desert getaway. Bring your tools and come see something very special today!

20. 2024-10-23
    listed $199,000 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Imagine, 17 beautiful Mojave Acres! This charming, two-bedroom, one bath home sits on a wide spread of beautiful land that will give you all the privacy and solitude you could ever ask for. This rustic beauty could use some updating and attention but with the spectacular views and gorgeous surroundings, it will be well worth the effort. On the east side of the property there is a slab foundation and a 2nd power pole. The property would be perfect for an investor or someone seeking to create their desert getaway. Bring your tools and come see something very special today!

21. 2024-07-01
    historical
22. 2024-01-06
    listed $199,900 Active
23. 1997-06-16
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,663
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,462
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,493
• − Management: −$1,493
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $699
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$168
• After-tax cash flow: $2,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Twentynine Palms

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #19731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 26,277
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,277
• Household income: $60,901
• Rent vs Own: 56.7% rent · 43.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 9% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.15%
• Current HPI: 380.5083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1150.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $150,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $160,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-24 Price Changed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2024-10-23 Listed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2024-07-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-01-06 Listed $199,900 CRMLS
• 1997-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,462 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.