31612 Angel Aura Dr · French Valley, CA 92596

$544,390

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,776 sqft · Condo · 20 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home is ready for modern lifestyles, complete with an inviting open-concept floorplan on the first level consisting of the kitchen, living and dining areas. A patio provides a space for outdoor leisure. Three bedrooms make up the second floor, including the owner's suite with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR LEISURE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $544k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (38.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (38.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Murrieta Valley Unified (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #255 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lisa J. Mails Elementary (1,019 students, 37% FRL); Dorothy Mcelhinney Middle (1,396 students, 44% FRL); Vista Murrieta High (3,493 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 23% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $58k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $54k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$94k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($536k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $337,728 (38.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.56%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $193,368
• Equity at exit: $490,430

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.11×
• Total profit: $625,805
• Equity at exit: $1,057,630

Cash invested: $152,429 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,377 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,855
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$680 /mo · $8,166/yr
• Insurance: −$227
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$374
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $-1,468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,236

Max offer price $331,953

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,092	-5% $-1,280	+0% $-1,468	+5% $-1,656	+10% $-1,844
Rent	-10% $-1,735	-5% $-1,602	+0% $-1,468	+5% $-1,335	+10% $-1,201
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,194	-0.5pp $-1,330	base $-1,468	+0.5pp $-1,609	+1.0pp $-1,753

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $136,098
• Closing costs: $16,332
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31629 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	3.0	1711	$3,099	$1.81	24d	1	0.03mi
31647 Angel Aura Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1711	$3,195	$1.87	18d	1	0.06mi
35350 Marabella Ct Unit 35350 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1925	$3,300	$1.71	0d	1	0.30mi
34715 Ribbon Grass Way Murrieta, CA	4.0	3.0	2319	$3,800	$1.64	0d	1	0.74mi
36026 Kiel Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	2366	$3,295	$1.39	0d	1	0.95mi
34495 Agave Dr Bldg 24 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,645	$1.89	26d	1	0.96mi
34495 Agave Dr #20106 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,050	$2.18	20d	1	0.96mi
34495 Agave Dr #1105 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1399	$3,250	$2.32	12d	1	0.96mi
36264 Capri Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1999	$3,300	$1.65	20d	1	1.17mi
36308 Cosimo Ln Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1550	$2,695	$1.74	22d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $544,390 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $544,390 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $544,390 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-05-13
   listed $544,390 Active 336-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,494
• − Property taxes: −$8,166
• − Insurance: −$2,722
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,242
• − Management: −$3,242
• − HOA: −$4,488
• − Depreciation: −$15,837
• Taxable loss: −$27,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,639
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,978/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murrieta Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600029
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,615
• Composite: 53.42/100
• National rank: #3152
• State rank: #255 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B