14838 Lovelace St · Pilot Point, TX 76258

$324,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,902 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

Built 2026 $171/sqft · 24% below area Est $427k · 24% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is at the back of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet, while three secondary bedrooms are near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 14838 Lovelace St, Pilot Point TX 76258; Status: Active; Last updated: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $324,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home; Spec home (Walsh plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1902

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built new construction (Walsh plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-348 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.0% in Pilot Point — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 491 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $240,275 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.59%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $426,568
• List price: $324,999
• Delta: -23.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5715 Smiley Rd	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-3%)	2mo	$850,000	$459	74
14549 Flossie St	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,866 (-2%)	1mo	$389,990	$209	74
14498 Lovelace St	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,944 (+2%)	5mo	$359,990	$185	63
14437 Lovelace St	0.46mi	4/3.0	1,978 (+4%)	16mo	$398,905	$202	55
14474 Lovelace St	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,944 (+2%)	16mo	$437,060	$225	54
5917 Mayer Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,991 (+5%)	6mo	$334,990	$168	54
14550 Flossie St	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,140 (+12%)	2mo	$399,990	$187	51
14441 Mietner St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,991 (+5%)	5mo	$349,990	$176	50
14446 Mcclint St	0.68mi	4/3.0	1,944 (+2%)	14mo	$393,905	$203	49
14437 Mcclint St	0.70mi	4/3.0	1,944 (+2%)	15mo	$464,750	$239	47
5863 Anning Way	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,098 (+10%)	12mo	$445,000	$212	46
14426 Mcclint St	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,103 (+11%)	1mo	$398,000	$189	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-74,781
• Equity at exit: $48,458

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-93,496
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76258

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 491
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,403 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $274,669

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-123	-5% $-236	+0% $-348	+5% $-460	+10% $-572
Rent	-10% $-538	-5% $-443	+0% $-348	+5% $-253	+10% $-158
Rate	-1.0pp $-184	-0.5pp $-265	base $-348	+0.5pp $-432	+1.0pp $-518

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5928 Mustang Creek Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,395	$1.26	14d	1	1.09mi
16309 Garden Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,450	$1.36	45d	1	1.14mi
6108 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,700	$1.27	14d	1	1.18mi
6108 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2123	$2,650	$1.25	7d	1	1.18mi
6124 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2183	$2,595	$1.19	5d	1	1.19mi
14220 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1654	$2,099	$1.27	5d	1	1.20mi
16629 Freshwater Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2211	$2,600	$1.18	26d	1	1.20mi
14221 Donahue St Pilot Point, TX	5.0	3.0	2609	$2,499	$0.96	20d	1	1.20mi
6109 White Creek Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2168	$2,899	$1.34	4d	1	1.20mi
14216 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,195	$1.22	45d	1	1.20mi
14216 Aberavon Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,135	$1.19	14d	1	1.20mi
16625 Hidden Cove Dr Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	1962	$2,495	$1.27	26d	1	1.23mi
6246 Shasta Creek Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2182	$2,695	$1.24	0d	1	1.26mi
14184 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	2062	$2,400	$1.16	0d	1	1.28mi
6249 White Creek Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2168	$2,495	$1.15	13d	1	1.30mi
14122 Emeric St Pilot Point, TX	4.0	3.0	2247	$2,500	$1.11	26d	1	1.30mi
14115 Harden St Pilot Point, TX	5.0	3.5	2534	$2,790	$1.10	45d	1	1.31mi
6113 Tahoe Winds Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2174	$2,800	$1.29	26d	1	1.31mi
14153 Golden Bridge Dr Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,895	$1.25	18d	1	1.31mi
14114 Donahue St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,200	$1.47	19d	1	1.34mi
14174 Inglebert St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,850	$1.27	45d	1	1.34mi
14112 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,795	$1.18	9d	1	1.38mi
14112 Hammersmith St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,895	$1.25	20d	1	1.38mi
14149 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.5	2423	$2,395	$0.99	9d	1	1.38mi
14133 Calderwood St Pilot Point, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,280	$1.30	45d	1	1.39mi
3304 Lake Palestine Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2179	$2,650	$1.22	14d	1	1.42mi
14121 Danesdale Dr Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	45d	1	1.43mi
7108 Calshot Rd Pilot Point, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$1,995	$1.14	45d	1	1.46mi
5513 Deer Run Dr Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2009	$3,000	$1.49	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $324,999 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,999 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,999 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,999 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,999 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $324,999 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $324,999 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $324,999 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $324,999 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $324,999 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,999 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,999 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,999 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,999 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $324,999 Active 407-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,307
• − Management: −$2,307
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$9,940
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,386
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pilot Point

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11604

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pilot Point, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,042

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Lithuanian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.12%
• Current HPI: 303.4015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B