2014 Fern Dr · Dothan, AL 36301

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,925 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 2003 0.41 ac lot $103/sqft · 8% below area Est $224k · 34% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated in the desirable Park Glen subdivision, this beautifully maintained 4BR/2BA brick home spans over 2,000 sq. ft. and offers a functional split-bedroom floor plan with a completely carpet-free interior. Durable tile and laminate flooring run throughout the entire home for easy maintenance. The spacious primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a double vanity, jetted tub, separate shower, and a large walk-in closet. A versatile 4th bedroom provides the perfect footprint for a home office, gym, or guest space. At the heart of the home, you'll find an open living area anchored by a cozy gas fireplace and a large kitchen with a walk-in pantry. Enjoy outdoor living in the private, vinyl-fenced backyard complete with a wood deck—ideal for entertaining. Additional highlights include an attached two-car carport, extra paved parking, and a detached shop with electricity for hobbies or storage. Conveniently located near local amenities and zoned for Selma Street Elementary, this home is move-in ready and full of Southern charm!

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Separate shower
• Carpet-free interior

Tags

• CARPET-FREE INTERIOR
• TILE AND LAMINATE FLOORING
• DOUBLE VANITY
• JETTED TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-606 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (35.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (51.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (51.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• Dothan City (urban): math 19% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #73 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $179k; list at $300k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,245 (51.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.66%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 17.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,660
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: 34.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
205 Carla Lynn Ct	0.28mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,934 (+0%)	5mo	$259,000	$88	73
306 Moore Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,700 (-8%)	1mo	$315,500	$117	64
103 Foxfire Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,800 (-4%)	1mo	$225,000	$80	59
200 Hidden Creek Cir	0.36mi	3/3.0	2,651 (-9%)	24mo	$343,500	$130	44
105 Needle Pine Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,612 (-11%)	22mo	$318,000	$122	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-87,374
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-126,486
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36301

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 17.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $766/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $-606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,230

Max offer price $192,814

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-436	-5% $-521	+0% $-606	+5% $-691	+10% $-776
Rent	-10% $-722	-5% $-664	+0% $-606	+5% $-548	+10% $-491
Rate	-1.0pp $-455	-0.5pp $-530	base $-606	+0.5pp $-684	+1.0pp $-763

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $299,900 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,900 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $299,900 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,900 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,900 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    price $299,900 1048-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1048 chars)

    Situated in the desirable Park Glen subdivision, this beautifully maintained 4BR/2BA brick home spans over 2,000 sq. ft. and offers a functional split-bedroom floor plan with a completely carpet-free interior. Durable tile and laminate flooring run throughout the entire home for easy maintenance. The spacious primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a double vanity, jetted tub, separate shower, and a large walk-in closet. A versatile 4th bedroom provides the perfect footprint for a home office, gym, or guest space. At the heart of the home, you'll find an open living area anchored by a cozy gas fireplace and a large kitchen with a walk-in pantry. Enjoy outdoor living in the private, vinyl-fenced backyard complete with a wood deck—ideal for entertaining. Additional highlights include an attached two-car carport, extra paved parking, and a detached shop with electricity for hobbies or storage. Conveniently located near local amenities and zoned for Selma Street Elementary, this home is move-in ready and full of Southern charm!

18. 2026-03-24
    price $309,900 1048-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1048 chars)

    Situated in the desirable Park Glen subdivision, this beautifully maintained 4BR/2BA brick home spans over 2,000 sq. ft. and offers a functional split-bedroom floor plan with a completely carpet-free interior. Durable tile and laminate flooring run throughout the entire home for easy maintenance. The spacious primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a double vanity, jetted tub, separate shower, and a large walk-in closet. A versatile 4th bedroom provides the perfect footprint for a home office, gym, or guest space. At the heart of the home, you'll find an open living area anchored by a cozy gas fireplace and a large kitchen with a walk-in pantry. Enjoy outdoor living in the private, vinyl-fenced backyard complete with a wood deck—ideal for entertaining. Additional highlights include an attached two-car carport, extra paved parking, and a detached shop with electricity for hobbies or storage. Conveniently located near local amenities and zoned for Selma Street Elementary, this home is move-in ready and full of Southern charm!

19. 2026-03-13
    listed $315,000 Active 1048-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1048 chars)

    Situated in the desirable Park Glen subdivision, this beautifully maintained 4BR/2BA brick home spans over 2,000 sq. ft. and offers a functional split-bedroom floor plan with a completely carpet-free interior. Durable tile and laminate flooring run throughout the entire home for easy maintenance. The spacious primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a double vanity, jetted tub, separate shower, and a large walk-in closet. A versatile 4th bedroom provides the perfect footprint for a home office, gym, or guest space. At the heart of the home, you'll find an open living area anchored by a cozy gas fireplace and a large kitchen with a walk-in pantry. Enjoy outdoor living in the private, vinyl-fenced backyard complete with a wood deck—ideal for entertaining. Additional highlights include an attached two-car carport, extra paved parking, and a detached shop with electricity for hobbies or storage. Conveniently located near local amenities and zoned for Selma Street Elementary, this home is move-in ready and full of Southern charm!

20. 2015-06-23
    soldstatus $178,800
21. 2015-06-19
    soldstatus $178,500 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Very nice home with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths. 4th bedroom could be used as an office, exercise room, craft room, etc. Split bedroom arrangement. Large MBR. Master bath has jetted tub/separate shower, double vanities, walk-in closet. Spacious kitchen with pantry. Tile and laminate flooring throughout home. Living area with gas fireplace. Attached two-car carport, extra paving for parking, shop w/ electricity. Large backyard, fenced with vinyl fencing--plenty of room to have a pool. Wood deck.

22. 2015-04-25
    listed $189,000 491-char remark

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Very nice home with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths. 4th bedroom could be used as an office, exercise room, craft room, etc. Split bedroom arrangement. Large MBR. Master bath has jetted tub/separate shower, double vanities, walk-in closet. Spacious kitchen with pantry. Tile and laminate flooring throughout home. Living area with gas fireplace. Attached two-car carport, extra paving for parking, shop w/ electricity. Large backyard, fenced with vinyl fencing--plenty of room to have a pool. Wood deck.

23. 2015-04-23
    listed $189,000
24. 2015-04-23
    listed $189,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $766 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$463/yr (+$39/mo · 60.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$766
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,404
• − Management: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$13,048
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,131
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dothan City
• NCES district ID: 0101230
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,279
• Composite: 24.56/100
• National rank: #7640
• State rank: #73 of 129 in AL

Livability — Dothan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #13662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dothan, AL
• City population: 47,783
• Population (ZIP): 38,627

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,280 people
• By 2030: 112,668 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 116,149 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 117,805 · +6.8%
• By 2075: 118,577 · +7.5%
• By 2100: 110,940 · +0.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.7% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.46%
• Current HPI: 161.1212
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+58.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $299,900 SAMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $309,900 SAMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $315,000 SAMLS
• 2015-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $178,800 Public Records
• 2015-06-19 Sold (MLS) $178,500 SAMLS
• 2015-04-25 Listed $189,000 SAMLS
• 2015-04-23 Listed $189,000 MAAR
• 2015-04-23 Listed $189,000 WBR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $766 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.