3318 Timberlane Dr · Tyler, TX 75701

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1958 Est $261k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1958
• Listed 15 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime D+.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.63%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,800
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3212 Timberlane Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+5%)	3mo	$274,000	$160	82
3021 Williamsburg Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+2%)	1mo	$225,000	$135	76
2216 Crestwood Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,565 (-4%)	14mo	$260,000	$166	62
3814 Pine Manor Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,734 (+6%)	14mo	$265,000	$153	61
3014 Brentwood Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,872 (+15%)	1mo	$234,990	$126	58
2911 Meadow Brook Trl	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,610 (-1%)	11mo	$299,000	$186	53
2939 Meadow Brook Trl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-10%)	8mo	$260,000	$178	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-13,720
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $7,173
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75701

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,694 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,122/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,475

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3207 Timberlane Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$1,750	$0.98	43d	1	0.19mi
3629 McDonald Rd Tyler, TX	2.0	2.0	1287	$1,325	$1.03	21d	1	0.22mi
2310 Haverhill Dr Tyler, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,615	$1.35	21d	1	0.40mi
2531 Westminster Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,425	$1.01	21d	1	0.40mi
2725 Tanglewood Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$1,675	$0.86	13d	1	0.68mi
9149 County Road 273 Tyler, TX	2.0	2.0	1597	$1,595	$1.00	21d	1	0.77mi
3127 Andy Ln Tyler, TX	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,100	$1.21	43d	1	0.91mi
3113 Greg Ln Tyler, TX	3.0	1.5	1157	$1,300	$1.12	13d	1	0.93mi
2725 Amy Ln Tyler, TX	2.0	1.5	1146	$1,520	$1.33	13d	1	0.99mi
3032 Santa Elena Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,485	$1.69	43d	1	1.04mi
3038 Santa Elena Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,485	$1.90	13d	1	1.05mi
2319 Hunter St Tyler, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,225	$1.02	43d	1	1.11mi
2401 Airline Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	2.5	1512	$1,325	$0.88	43d	1	1.18mi
2020 S Tipton Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1914	$2,100	$1.10	13d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $159,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $169,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    listing id $169,900 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    listed $169,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,122 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,122 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$3,122
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,626
• − Management: −$1,626
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$110
• After-tax cash flow: $2,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tyler ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,090
• Composite: 32.69/100
• National rank: #5650
• State rank: #449 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tyler

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #4181

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tyler, TX
• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 127,842
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,344
• Household income: $66,401
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1116.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.78%
• Current HPI: 207.238
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,122 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.