Plan 1243 Plan · New Caney, TX 77357

$178,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Extra storage space * Kitchen nook * Open floor plan * Tankless water heater * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Planned park * Planned splash pad * Close to popular restaurants * Close to family friendly parks

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Walk-in closet
• Dual-sink vanity

Tags

• DUAL-SINK VANITY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• KITCHEN NOOK
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $178,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $214,502.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-182/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in New Caney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,515 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,502
• List price: $178,995
• Delta: -16.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27798 Susie Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+0%)	22mo	$89,900	$72	58
26990 Royal Coach Ln	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,363 (+10%)	10mo	$150,000	$110	44
27619 Royal Coach	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,090 (-12%)	13mo	$129,900	$119	44
27245 Royal Coach	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	20mo	$184,900	$168	43
20616 Mcgager Dr	0.65mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,190 (-4%)	16mo	$220,000	$185	42
28140 Seven Sisters Rd	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,100 (-12%)	6mo	$250,000	$227	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-40,769
• Equity at exit: $31,983

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-56,314
• Equity at exit: $18,546

Cash invested: $60,061 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $177,495 ($136/sqft)
• Median days on market: 87 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,857 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,125
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$268 /mo · $3,218/yr
• Insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,876

Max offer price $212,308

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $59	+0% $-15	+5% $-89	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-89	+0% $-15	+5% $58	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $39	base $-15	+0.5pp $-71	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,626
• Closing costs: $6,435
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $184,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Plan 1243)Located at 20115 Sunlit Timber Trl, New Caney, TX 77357
• Exterior features: Property is a new-construction home

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Plan 1243)Living area approximately 1243

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $178,995 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $178,995 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $178,995 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $178,995 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $178,995 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $178,995 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $178,995 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $178,995 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $178,995 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $178,995 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $178,995 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $178,995 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $178,995 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $178,995 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $178,995 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $178,995 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $178,995 Active 99 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $178,995 Active 98 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $178,995 Active 97 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $178,995 Active 96 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $178,995 Active 95 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $178,995 Active 94 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $175,995 Active 93 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $175,995 Active 92 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $175,995 Active 90 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $175,995 Active 89 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $175,995 Active 88 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $175,995 Active 87 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $175,995 Active 86 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $175,995 Active 85 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $175,995 Active 84 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $175,995 Active 83 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $175,995 Active 82 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $175,995 Active 81 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $175,995 Active 80 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $175,995 Active 79 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $184,995 Active 77 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $184,995 Active 75 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $184,995 Active 74 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $184,995 Active 71 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $184,995 Active 70 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $184,995 Active 69 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $184,995 Active 68 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $184,995 Active 66 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $184,995 Active 62 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $184,995 Active 61 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,995 Active 60 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $184,995 Active 57 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,995 Active 56 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,995 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,015
• − Property taxes: −$3,218
• − Insurance: −$1,073
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − Depreciation: −$6,240
• Taxable loss: −$3,825
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$918
• After-tax cash flow: $736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,215–$18,645 screening

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home integration — Enhances both resale and rental appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Smart security system — Improves safety and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $184,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Plan 1243)Located at 20115 Sunlit Timber Trl, New Caney, TX 77357
• Exterior features: Property is a new-construction home

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Plan 1243)Living area approximately 1243