119 Greenhurst Village Dr · Lakewood, NY 14701

$42,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 79 Days on market

Built 2015 Good condition $43/sqft · 150% above area ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don’t miss this beautifully maintained 2015 mobile home in the quiet Greenhurst Village Park—one of the newer and more desirable homes in the park! Featuring tan vinyl siding, vinyl windows, and stylish fixtures throughout, this home is move-in ready with stainless steel kitchen appliances included. Enjoy two decks (including a covered deck), a double parking pad, and a large side yard—perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Cash only sale unless you can find financing for a single wide mobile home. Buyer must complete and be approved through the park application process. Lot rent is $462 and includes garbage, water, sewer and property taxes. Co-op owned park; owners care!

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Vinyl windows
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• VINYL SIDING
• VINYL WINDOWS
• COVERED DECK
• DOUBLE PARKING PAD
• LARGE SIDE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $42k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $833 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.8% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#398 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $294 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $39,950 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.04%
• DSCR: 4.74
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $17,000
• List price: $42,500
• Delta: 150.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
136 7th Greenhurst Village Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	980 (0%)	2mo	$33,000	$34	96
131 Greenhurst Village Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0	952 (-3%)	0mo	$17,000	$18	92
143 Greenhurst Village Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+3%)	1mo	$16,500	$16	86
103 Palmer Greenhurst Village Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	980 (0%)	13mo	$29,000	$30	82
142 Greenhurst Vlg	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,036 (+6%)	2mo	$30,000	$29	81
130 7th St. Greenhurst Village Dr	0.04mi	2/1.5	980 (0%)	19mo	$23,700	$24	80
116 Greenhurst Village Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (0%)	11mo	$10,800	$11	79
139 7th Greenhurst Village Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	980 (0%)	23mo	$35,000	$36	79
155 8th Greenhurst Village Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+3%)	14mo	$39,500	$39	75
108 Circle Greenhurst Village Dr	0.06mi	2/1.0	896 (-9%)	16mo	$35,000	$39	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 84.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.88×
• Total profit: $46,213
• Equity at exit: $6,337

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.13×
• Total profit: $108,677
• Equity at exit: $3,675

Cash invested: $11,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14701

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 313
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$223
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$53 /mo · $638/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $833

Break-even live

Break-even rent $372

Max offer price $42,500

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $863	-5% $848	+0% $833	+5% $819	+10% $804
Rent	-10% $721	-5% $777	+0% $833	+5% $890	+10% $946
Rate	-1.0pp $855	-0.5pp $844	base $833	+0.5pp $822	+1.0pp $811

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,625
• Closing costs: $1,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2887 Fluvanna Townline Rd Jamestown, NY	1.0	1.0	820	$1,750	$2.13	44d	1	0.40mi
3779 Heineman Rd Bemus Point, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	44d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $42,500 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,500 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,500 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,500 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,500 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $42,500 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $42,500 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,500 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $42,500 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,500 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $42,500 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $42,500 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,500 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $42,500 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $42,500 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $47,500 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    price $47,500 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Don’t miss this beautifully maintained 2015 mobile home in the quiet Greenhurst Village Park—one of the newer and more desirable homes in the park! Featuring tan vinyl siding, vinyl windows, and stylish fixtures throughout, this home is move-in ready with stainless steel kitchen appliances included. Enjoy two decks (including a covered deck), a double parking pad, and a large side yard—perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Cash only sale unless you can find financing for a single wide mobile home. Buyer must complete and be approved through the park application process. Lot rent is $462 and includes garbage, water, sewer and property taxes. Co-op owned park; owners care!

18. 2026-04-01
    listed $50,000 Active 690-char remark

    Show marketing remark (690 chars)

    Don’t miss this beautifully maintained 2015 mobile home in the quiet Greenhurst Village Park—one of the newer and more desirable homes in the park! Featuring tan vinyl siding, vinyl windows, and stylish fixtures throughout, this home is move-in ready with stainless steel kitchen appliances included. Enjoy two decks (including a covered deck), a double parking pad, and a large side yard—perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Cash only sale unless you can find financing for a single wide mobile home. Buyer must complete and be approved through the park application process. Lot rent is $462 and includes garbage, water, sewer and property taxes. Co-op owned park; owners care!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,381
• − Property taxes: −$638
• − Insurance: −$212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$1,236
• Taxable income: $9,914
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,379
• After-tax cash flow: $7,621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2015 mobile home in Greenhurst Village Park is move-in ready with stainless steel appliances and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and energy-efficient upgrades would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace windows with energy-efficient ones — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace windows with energy-efficient ones — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemus Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604530
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,968
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #2753
• State rank: #238 of 755 in NY

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #6904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chautauqua County · 38,461 people
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,461
• Household income: $49,685
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1838.0

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.93%
• Current HPI: 259.402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $47,500 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $50,000 UNYREIS