518 Shepard St · Montgomery, AL 36104

$9,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1880 2,395 sqft lot $14/sqft · 80% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is. Cash preferred but will consider financed all offers. Seller is assisted by an Attorney in Fact. Do not knock on door or approach house without prior communication.

Key facts

• 2,395 sq ft lot
• Built 1880
• Listed 27 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $778 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $10k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 100.6% vs local median 6.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($34k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $68 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $297 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $9,751 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 100.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 336.68%
• DSCR: 15.98
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,704
• List price: $9,900
• Delta: -79.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.29×
• Total profit: $47,940
• Equity at exit: $1,476

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 39.09×
• Total profit: $105,573
• Equity at exit: $856

Cash invested: $2,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36104

• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,061 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax from tax record: −$4 /mo · $51/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $778

Break-even live

Break-even rent $76

Max offer price $9,900

Occupancy floor 22%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,475
• Closing costs: $297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
671 S Perry St Montgomery, AL	2.0	1.0–2.0	525	$1,725	$3.29	21d	1	0.62mi
1732 West St Unit 1732 A Montgomery, AL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,375	$1.92	44d	1	0.95mi
1530 Saint Charles Ave Unit B Montgomery, AL	1.0	1.0	725	$775	$1.07	44d	1	1.00mi
2166 College St Montgomery, AL	1.0	1.0	700	$775	$1.11	13d	1	1.00mi
207 Montgomery St Montgomery, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	890	$1,785	$2.01	13d	4	1.01mi
2300 Plum St Unit 2302 Montgomery, AL	1.0	1.0	656	$700	$1.07	13d	1	1.06mi
2302 Plum St Montgomery, AL	1.0	1.0	656	$700	$1.07	13d	1	1.06mi
116 N Lewis St Montgomery, AL	1.0	1.0	690	$875	$1.27	44d	1	1.08mi
1510 Yancey Ave Unit B Montgomery, AL	1.0	1.0	650	$725	$1.12	44d	1	1.09mi
215 N Court St Unit 06 Montgomery, AL	1.0	1.0	695	$1,315	$1.89	44d	1	1.10mi
2405 Palmetto St Unit B Montgomery, AL	1.0	1.0	550	$750	$1.36	13d	1	1.17mi
501 Clayton St Unit 501A Montgomery, AL	1.0	1.0	655	$725	$1.11	44d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-12
   price $9,900 309-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   price $19,900 309-char remark
3. 2026-04-29
   listed $24,900 Active 309-char remark
4. 2021-01-18
   listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $51 · $4/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $51 · $4/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$555
• − Property taxes: −$51
• − Insurance: −$50
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,018
• − Management: −$1,018
• − Depreciation: −$288
• Taxable income: $9,750
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,340
• After-tax cash flow: $6,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• County: Montgomery County · 190,016 people
• City population: 175,913
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 10,535
• Household income: $33,823
• Rent vs Own: 75.4% rent · 24.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 641.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 20% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Swedish 2% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 27.2384
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-60.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $9,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $19,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-01-18 Listed $25,000 MAAR

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $51 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.