6447 Holiday Valley Rd Unit 306/308-3 · Ellicottville, NY 14731

$69,500

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 848 sqft · Condo · 1396 Days on market

Built 2009 Poor condition $82/sqft · 37% below area Est $110k · 37% under $169/mo HOA · 20% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Third floor one bedroom deluxe Type "F" layout at the premier Tamarack Club. This is a fractional ownership giving you 10-11 weeks per year, or about 1 week per month. Your weeks do rotate so in a five year cycle you end up getting all 52 weeks. Weeks are all pre-assigned. This unit is located on our lobby level giving you easy access from the parking lot to your room. Ownership amenities include year 'round access to the heated indoor/outdoor pool, private locker room, private owner's lounge, valet parking, and underground parking while lodging overnight. This is Ellicottville living at a "fraction of the cost!"

Key facts

• $169 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 2009

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Tamarack Club HOA; Quarterly association fee; Association fee covers common area maintenance, common areas, electricity, heat, insurance, structure maintenance, reserve fund, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water; Association amenities include community kitchen, pool, sauna, security, and storage

Exterior

• Parking: No garage (see remarks)
• Security: Association provides security
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story property; Resale condition
• Construction: Stone and wood siding exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Barbecue; Pool (association, in-ground); On golf course; Ski-in / ski-out

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Built-in oven; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Dishwasher; Freezer; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Granite counters; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Great room; Kitchen/family room combo; Combined living and dining area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in common area; Upper-level laundry access; Gas water heater

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $69,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$110,422) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $70k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-531/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $63k (9.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($850 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 0.6% in Ellicottville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#422 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellicottville Central School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #179 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ellicottville Elementary School (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 245 students, 38% FRL); Ellicottville Middle School High School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 310 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1396 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1396 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.37%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,422
• List price: $69,500
• Delta: -37.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-13,921
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-15,108
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14731

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$169
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $906

Max offer price $63,102

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-20	+0% $-44	+5% $-68	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-111	-5% $-78	+0% $-44	+5% $-11	+10% $23
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-27	base $-44	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $169 · $2,028/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $69,500 Active 1396 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,500 Active 1395 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,500 Active 1394 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,500 Active 1392 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,500 Active 1391 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,500 Active 1390 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,500 Active 1389 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 1387 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,500 Active 1386 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $69,500 Active 1383 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,500 Active 1382 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,500 Active 1381 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,500 Active 1380 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,500 Active 1377 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,500 Active 1376 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,500 Active 1375 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,500 Active 1374 DOM
18. 2026-04-28
    price $69,500
19. 2023-09-22
    price $76,000
20. 2023-03-24
    price $78,900
21. 2022-08-26
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − HOA: −$2,028
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable loss: −$1,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$375
• After-tax cash flow: $-156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including roof, exterior, and landscaping work. Immediate action is needed to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage visible in the independent image.
• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear visible in the independent image.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.
• Major paint — Peeling paint visible in the independent image.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos provided, but the exterior suggests a lack of maintenance and potential issues with the HVAC system.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof repair — Fixing the roof would improve both the resale and rental value.
• Both exterior painting — Painting the exterior would improve both the resale and rental value.
• Both landscaping — Trimming and maintaining the landscaping would improve both the resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage visible in the independent image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear visible in the independent image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · Peeling paint visible in the independent image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos provided, but the exterior suggests a lack of maintenance and potential issues with the HVAC system.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof repair — Fixing the roof would improve both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both exterior painting — Painting the exterior would improve both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both landscaping — Trimming and maintaining the landscaping would improve both the resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellicottville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610530
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,528
• Composite: 55.33/100
• National rank: #1258
• State rank: #179 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ellicottville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #7378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,198

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.11%
• Current HPI: 280.7168
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $69,500 WNYREIS
• 2023-09-22 Price Changed $76,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-03-24 Price Changed $78,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-08-26 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS