10066 Sampson Ave · Lake City, PA 16423

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,357 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1900 10,816 sqft lot $81/sqft · 22% below area Est $185k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Centrally located in Lake City near school. Large covered patio. Quite street with generous lot. First Floor laundry. 3rd bedroom is captive. This sale is contingent upon Bankruptcy Court Approval - Sold As Is.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• First floor laundry
• Centrally located

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• GENEROUS LOT
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories; Residential property; R-1 zoning
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Fenced yard; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partial basement; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#313 in PA, #2,785 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Girard SD (suburban): math 48% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #113 of 539 in PA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.37%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,797
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -40.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2318 Elk St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,334 (-2%)	12mo	$185,000	$139	77
10082 Sampson Ave	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,212 (-11%)	12mo	$130,550	$108	70
10320 Hall Ave	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,328 (-2%)	7mo	$215,000	$162	69
9938 Martin Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,319 (-3%)	20mo	$180,000	$136	64
9978 Pine St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-12%)	8mo	$245,000	$204	60
2429 Rice Ave	0.34mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,256 (-7%)	9mo	$177,500	$141	59
1228 Cherry St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,416 (+4%)	4mo	$225,000	$159	54
10347 Clifton Dr	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,380 (+2%)	23mo	$220,000	$159	52
9945 Holly Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-13%)	15mo	$230,000	$196	50
2651 Acorn Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,200 (-12%)	23mo	$228,500	$190	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $68,741
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.35×
• Total profit: $195,655
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16423

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,486/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 210-char remark
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $110,000 Active 210-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,486 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,486 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$2,486
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$52
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13
• After-tax cash flow: $1,665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Girard SD
• NCES district ID: 4210740
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $47,089
• Composite: 47.42/100
• National rank: #2283
• State rank: #113 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #2785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, PA
• City population: 3,880
• Population (ZIP): 3,880

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.16%
• Current HPI: 252.0669
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-24 Listed $110,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,486 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.