1533 Mitchell Ln · Perryman, MD 21001

$208,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1949 0.40 ac lot $149/sqft · 31% below area Est $304k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located In Harford County Public School District near the Cranberry Run on a secluded 0.35 ac level lot. Incredible opportunity to earn sweat equity quickly. Detached Rancher with 1400 SqFt of finished living area. Home Features an Extra Large Living Room, Dining Room, Eat In Kitchen, 3 Bedrooms, and 2 Full Baths. Plenty of Off Street Parking In the circular driveway, and More. This one won’t last long! Seller will make no repairs nor will the buyer be allowed to perform any before closing. Buyer acknowledges that property is sold in current condition with no repairs, warranties, disclosures or inspections provided by seller. EMD must be cashiers check. Buyer pays all transfer costs.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• 6 parking spots
• Built 1949

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Circular crushed-stone driveway; Six driveway parking spaces (total parking for 6)
• Utilities: No public sewer (no sewer system); Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story entry level with main-level living and bedrooms; Rural location, outside city limits; Home faces a driveway set back from the road
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Crawl space foundation; Double-pane vinyl-clad windows; Building winterized; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Open rear yard in a rural setting; Water view (overlooks Cranberry Run); Water access to a creek

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s) for heating and cooling; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water; Circuit breaker electrical
• Interior features: Open floor plan with recessed lighting; Living and dining areas with a formal separate dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Attic; Walk-in closet(s); Tub shower and walk-in shower; Drywall walls and ceilings; Not furnished
• Laundry & utility: Main-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $208k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $656 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $208k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.7% in Perryman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#293 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, commute D+, schools F.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $208k implies a 619% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,245 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.49%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,285
• List price: $208,500
• Delta: -31.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 Teake Ln	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,352 (-3%)	1mo	$330,000	$244	79
1518 Mitchell Ln	0.11mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,374 (-2%)	20mo	$289,000	$210	70
1412 Willshire Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,352 (-3%)	14mo	$265,000	$196	67
1406 Willshire Dr	0.34mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,323 (-6%)	14mo	$285,000	$215	56
15 Spesutia Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,225 (-12%)	15mo	$340,000	$278	54
1536 Perryman Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,466 (+5%)	1mo	$329,000	$224	52
1427 Perrywood Dr	0.31mi	3/3.0	1,578 (+13%)	7mo	$324,000	$205	51
1406 Cranberry Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	23mo	$300,000	$198	36
1534 Perryman Rd	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,560 (+11%)	24mo	$310,000	$199	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,337
• Equity at exit: $31,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $29,049
• Equity at exit: $18,027

Cash invested: $58,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21001

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,487 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,093
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,543/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,657

Max offer price $208,500

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,125
• Closing costs: $6,255
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4927 Bristle Cone Cir Aberdeen, MD	3.0	2.5	1620	$2,200	$1.36	3d	1	0.97mi
5068 Bristle Cone Cir Aberdeen, MD	3.0	2.5	1636	$2,700	$1.65	44d	1	1.04mi
5054 Bristle Cone Cir Aberdeen, MD	3.0	2.5	1815	$2,695	$1.48	44d	1	1.07mi
1347 Spindrift Rd Aberdeen, MD	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,749	$1.66	44d	1	1.08mi
4719 Witchhazel Way Aberdeen, MD	3.0	2.5	1860	$2,400	$1.29	15d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-19
   price $208,500 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $219,900 Active 1529-char remark
16. 2020-10-22
    historical
17. 2020-04-22
    listed $83,000 Active
18. 2019-09-30
    historical
19. 2019-04-21
    price $90,000
20. 2019-03-26
    listed $105,000 Active
21. 2017-03-16
    historical
22. 2017-03-16
    historical Withdrawn
23. 2017-03-16
    historical Withdrawn
24. 2017-03-16
    historical
25. 2017-01-19
    price
26. 2017-01-19
    listed Active
27. 2017-01-19
    listed $90,000
28. 2017-01-13
    listed Active
29. 2017-01-13
    listed $90,000
30. 2016-12-02
    historical Expired
31. 2016-12-02
    historical
32. 2016-09-23
    price
33. 2016-06-13
    listed Active
34. 2016-06-13
    listed $99,000
35. 1990-01-26
    soldstatus $29,000
36. 1989-11-30
    soldstatus $29,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,543 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,908 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$365/yr (+$30/mo · 23.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 29% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,850
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,679
• − Property taxes: −$1,543
• − Insurance: −$1,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,388
• − Management: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$6,065
• Taxable income: $4,743
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,138
• After-tax cash flow: $6,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Perryman

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #15253

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Perryman, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 75
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 27,168
• Household income: $83,238
• Rent vs Own: 36.7% rent · 63.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 736.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.65%
• Current HPI: 247.668
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+658.3% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $219,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-10-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-04-22 Listed $83,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-09-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-21 Price Changed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-03-26 Listed $105,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-03-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-03-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-03-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-03-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-01-19 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2017-01-19 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-01-19 Listed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-01-13 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-01-13 Listed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-12-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-12-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-09-23 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2016-06-13 Listed — MRIS
• 2016-06-13 Listed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 1989-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,543 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.