7510 N Venita Ave · Shallowater, TX 79363

$152,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2016 0.34 ac lot ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a home that offers the space you need and the layout you'll love. This well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home features a thoughtfully designed floor plan with two separate living areas, giving you flexibility for everyday living, entertaining, or creating a dedicated office or media space. Inside, you'll notice big room sizes throughout and a layout that flows comfortably from one space to the next. The kitchen stands out with a huge pantry, offering the storage buyers are always looking for, while the laundry room adds character and functionality with unique sliding doors. Step outside and you'll find a true highlight of the property—a spacious covered patio p

Key facts

• Huge pantry
• Unique sliding doors
• Backyard setup

Tags

• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• HUGE PANTRY
• UNIQUE SLIDING DOORS
• SPACIOUS COVERED PATIO
• BACKYARD SETUP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Oversized parking; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Electricity available and connected; Water and sewer available and connected
• Home design: Manufactured residential home; Single-story; Composition roof; Lap and wood siding; Permanent foundation
• Construction: Built with lap siding and wood siding; Permanent foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Storm door(s); Storage shed(s); Fenced backyard with wood fencing; Landscaped, level lot with front and back yard; Asphalt city street frontage (publicly maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Range hood; Electric water heater; Pantry
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Double vanity; Open floor plan; Pantry; Soaking tub; Storage; Walk-in closets; Blinds and window coverings; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $152k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#207 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shallowater ISD (town): math 73% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #18 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shallowater Middle (math 75% / reading 64%, grade A, #63 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 500 students, 37% FRL); Shallowater H S (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 542 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,440 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.86%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $117,458
• Equity at exit: $136,934

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.49×
• Total profit: $318,781
• Equity at exit: $295,303

Cash invested: $42,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79363

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,068 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,252/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,380

Max offer price $152,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,000
• Closing costs: $4,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $152,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $152,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $152,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $152,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $152,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $152,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $152,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $152,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $152,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $152,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $152,000 Active 1034-char remark
18. 2024-07-05
    price $185,000
19. 2016-08-10
    soldstatus
20. 2015-10-13
    soldstatus
21. 2010-04-28
    soldstatus
22. 2007-05-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,252 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,782 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,530/yr (+$128/mo · 122.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,514
• − Property taxes: −$1,252
• − Insurance: −$2,262
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − Depreciation: −$4,422
• Taxable income: $4,392
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,054
• After-tax cash flow: $5,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shallowater ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839870
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,288
• Composite: 59.69/100
• National rank: #903
• State rank: #18 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shallowater

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #5236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,831

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.76%
• Current HPI: 289.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $152,000 LARMLS
• 2024-07-05 Price Changed $185,000 LARMLS
• 2016-08-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+18.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,252 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.