9580 Lodi Center Rd · Lodi, NY 14860

$164,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 176 Days on market

Built 1950 1.60 ac lot $162/sqft · 9% below area Est $181k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

First time this family home has ever been on the market! This quaint country home boasts a bright kitchen, large living room, 2 bedrooms and a full bath. There are two smaller rooms that have been used as bedrooms but either would make a great office or den! There are washer/dryer hookups, wall AC, efficient wood pellet stove with a freestanding propane vented heater being the primary source of heat. Outdoors there is a nice covered deck and 1.6 pretty acres with lots of greenspace in the backyard to enjoy. The roof is only 6 years old, the windows have been replaced, newer siding and hot water heater. .. decent little place for a first home or those looking for one floor living! Sellers intended to tear down the old garage this Spring - the floor is concrete, providing a great start for a new garage! Property is centrally located, any way you go the drive is scenic - enjoy your ride to Watkins Glen, Ithaca, Geneva or any Finger Lakes destination! Please do not enter the garage, the kitchen stove will need to be replaced.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Covered deck
• 1.6 acres

Tags

• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• COVERED DECK
• 1.6 ACRES
• EFFICIENT WOOD PELLET STOVE
• NEWER SIDING
• HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-167 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,082 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• South Seneca Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #552 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Seneca County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Seneca County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $165k implies a 1549% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $116,997 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.35%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,523
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: -8.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $79,137
• Equity at exit: $148,555

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $241,404
• Equity at exit: $320,364

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14860

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,898/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $-167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $135,332

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-121	+0% $-167	+5% $-214	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-214	+0% $-167	+5% $-121	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-84	-0.5pp $-125	base $-167	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 175 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 170 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,900 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,900 Active 158 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 157 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 156 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 155 DOM
17. 2026-04-01
    price $164,900 1037-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1037 chars)

    First time this family home has ever been on the market! This quaint country home boasts a bright kitchen, large living room, 2 bedrooms and a full bath. There are two smaller rooms that have been used as bedrooms but either would make a great office or den! There are washer/dryer hookups, wall AC, efficient wood pellet stove with a freestanding propane vented heater being the primary source of heat. Outdoors there is a nice covered deck and 1.6 pretty acres with lots of greenspace in the backyard to enjoy. The roof is only 6 years old, the windows have been replaced, newer siding and hot water heater. .. decent little place for a first home or those looking for one floor living! Sellers intended to tear down the old garage this Spring - the floor is concrete, providing a great start for a new garage! Property is centrally located, any way you go the drive is scenic - enjoy your ride to Watkins Glen, Ithaca, Geneva or any Finger Lakes destination! Please do not enter the garage, the kitchen stove will need to be replaced.

18. 2025-12-27
    listed $170,000 Active 1037-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1037 chars)

    First time this family home has ever been on the market! This quaint country home boasts a bright kitchen, large living room, 2 bedrooms and a full bath. There are two smaller rooms that have been used as bedrooms but either would make a great office or den! There are washer/dryer hookups, wall AC, efficient wood pellet stove with a freestanding propane vented heater being the primary source of heat. Outdoors there is a nice covered deck and 1.6 pretty acres with lots of greenspace in the backyard to enjoy. The roof is only 6 years old, the windows have been replaced, newer siding and hot water heater. .. decent little place for a first home or those looking for one floor living! Sellers intended to tear down the old garage this Spring - the floor is concrete, providing a great start for a new garage! Property is centrally located, any way you go the drive is scenic - enjoy your ride to Watkins Glen, Ithaca, Geneva or any Finger Lakes destination! Please do not enter the garage, the kitchen stove will need to be replaced.

19. 2000-10-30
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,898 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,343 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$444/yr (+$37/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,898
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,123
• − Management: −$1,123
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$4,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $-817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Seneca Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622140
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,533
• Composite: 30.71/100
• National rank: #6170
• State rank: #552 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lodi

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1082
• US rank: #21852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,079

Population outlook (Seneca County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,457 people
• By 2030: 32,540 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 30,680 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 28,875 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 24,757 · -26.0%
• By 2100: 19,591 · -41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Polish 7% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · German/W. Germanic 12% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Seneca

• 2024 margin: R (+11.8) · D 44.1% · R 55.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -11.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.8 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+12.1 2012: D+9.2 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.07%
• Current HPI: 347.8693
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1549.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $164,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-27 Listed $170,000 UNYREIS
• 2000-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,898 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.