7918 W Golf Course Dr · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$499,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1990 6,098 sqft lot $316/sqft · 9% below area Est $551k · 9% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the gated Sea Links community at Birch Bay, this home offers privacy with open space behind the property and convenient access to nearby beaches, trails, parks, and local dining. The layout provides multiple living areas and flexible spaces that can accommodate remote work, hobbies, guests, or additional living needs. Recent improvements include a newer furnace, a roof approximately three years old, updated wood-style flooring throughout, fresh interior paint and trim, and an updated half bath on the lower level. These updates provide a refreshed interior and added peace of mind for future owners. Outdoor spaces allow for relaxing or entertaining while enjoying the natural settin

Key facts

• Flexible spaces
• Newer furnace
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• GATED SEA LINKS COMMUNITY
• OPEN SPACE BEHIND THE PROPERTY
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• FLEXIBLE SPACES
• NEWER FURNACE
• UPDATED WOOD-STYLE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (37.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (46.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (46.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $50k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$86k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $270,079 (46.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.97%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $550,923
• List price: $499,900
• Delta: -9.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7965 W Golf Course Dr	0.15mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,612 (+2%)	9mo	$668,000	$414	75
4808 Cedar Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+1%)	1mo	$609,000	$380	74
7921 W Golf Course Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-7%)	22mo	$625,000	$425	66
7985 Sawgrass Way	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,693 (+7%)	19mo	$599,995	$354	65
4754 N Golf Course Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,616 (+2%)	23mo	$615,000	$381	65
7970 W Golf Course Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-11%)	14mo	$695,000	$492	62
7930 W Golf Course Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-15%)	16mo	$445,000	$330	59
7935 E Golf Course Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-12%)	19mo	$560,000	$400	53
4955 Henley St	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,471 (-7%)	6mo	$489,000	$332	48
4924 Henley St	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (-12%)	23mo	$439,900	$317	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $205,787
• Equity at exit: $450,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $658,694
• Equity at exit: $971,196

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,701 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,693/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-1,046

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,025

Max offer price $315,133

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-763	-5% $-904	+0% $-1,046	+5% $-1,187	+10% $-1,329
Rent	-10% $-1,259	-5% $-1,153	+0% $-1,046	+5% $-939	+10% $-833
Rate	-1.0pp $-794	-0.5pp $-919	base $-1,046	+0.5pp $-1,175	+1.0pp $-1,307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   price $499,900
3. 2026-03-05
   listed $515,000 Active
4. 2022-09-07
   soldstatus $485,000 Closed
5. 2022-08-10
   status Pending
6. 2022-08-05
   status Active
7. 2022-07-12
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2022-07-02
   listed $495,000 Active
9. 2007-10-12
   price $339,000 Sold
10. 2007-10-12
    soldstatus $305,000 Sold
11. 2007-10-12
    soldstatus $305,000
12. 2007-01-10
    historical
13. 2006-10-02
    listed $359,000
14. 2004-04-28
    soldstatus $200,000
15. 1996-07-16
    soldstatus $142,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,693 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,899 · $408/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,206/yr (+$101/mo · 32.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,693
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,593
• − Management: −$2,593
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable loss: −$22,017
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,284
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+252.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $499,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listed $515,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-07 Sold (MLS) $485,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-10 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-05 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-12 Contingent — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-02 Listed $495,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $305,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-12 Sold (MLS) $305,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-12 Price Changed $339,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-10 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-02 Listed $359,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $142,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,693 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.