3231 Vineyard Ave #21 · Pleasanton, CA 94566

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured · 175 Days on market

Manufactured home Fair condition $109/sqft · 47% below area Est $235k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.8

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained home in the very desirable Hacienda MH Park

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Listed 174 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 1.4% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in CA, #655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Pleasanton Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #43 of 1,400 in CA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Vintage Hills Elementary (538 students, 5% FRL); Pleasanton Middle (1,050 students, 12% FRL); Amador Valley High (2,665 students, 7% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 251 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($191k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $125k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.68%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,406
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -46.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3231 Vineyard Ave #141 #141	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+3%)	6mo	$236,000	$200	86
3231 Vineyard Ave #24	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-2%)	24mo	$175,000	$156	77
3231 Vineyard Ave #132	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,250 (+9%)	10mo	$159,000	$127	76
3263 Vineyard Ave #89	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,250 (+9%)	6mo	$280,000	$224	74
3231 Vineyard #33 #33	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	5mo	$159,000	$153	74
3231 Vineyard Ave #121	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	14mo	$225,000	$180	74
3263 Vineyard #132	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	8mo	$185,000	$148	70
3263 Vineyard Ave., #97 #97	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+14%)	2mo	$216,000	$166	70
3231 Vineyard #37	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+13%)	13mo	$270,000	$208	67
3263 Vineyard Ave #84 Spc 84	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+14%)	0mo	$250,000	$192	65
3263 Vineyard #68	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+14%)	5mo	$275,000	$212	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $61,567
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $183,919
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.1 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $250,000 ($202/sqft)
• Median days on market: 97 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +2.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 94566

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,559 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $1,157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,244	-5% $1,201	+0% $1,157	+5% $1,114	+10% $1,071
Rent	-10% $955	-5% $1,056	+0% $1,157	+5% $1,259	+10% $1,360
Rate	-1.0pp $1,220	-0.5pp $1,189	base $1,157	+0.5pp $1,125	+1.0pp $1,092

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2859 El Capitan Dr Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1229	$3,750	$3.05	38d	1	0.23mi
50 Vintage Cir Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1115	$3,775	$3.38	0d	23	0.32mi
3499 Norton Way Unit 13 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,285	$2.54	84d	1	0.48mi
691 Palomino Dr Unit B Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1198	$3,650	$3.05	7d	1	0.56mi
749 Palomino Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,888	$1.67	44d	1	0.58mi
749 Palomino Dr Unit C Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1130	$3,250	$2.88	139d	1	0.58mi
835 Palomino Dr Unit 2 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$2,850	$2.64	116d	1	0.60mi
3819 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	863	$2,697	$3.12	0d	6	0.70mi
3847 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,700	$3.00	112d	1	0.74mi
242 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.5	1221	$3,100	$2.54	139d	1	0.75mi
3955 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$3,443	$3.61	0d	12	0.86mi
3916 Promenade Way Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1458	$4,500	$3.09	32d	1	0.86mi
3956 Promenade Way Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1103	$3,800	$3.45	77d	1	0.90mi
4059 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,850	$2.96	120d	1	0.93mi
271 Kottinger Dr Pleasanton, CA	3.0	1.0	1026	$3,900	$3.80	2d	1	1.06mi
4141 Stanley Blvd Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.5	1456	$3,850	$2.64	74d	1	1.11mi
1539 Trimingham Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1369	$3,600	$2.63	97d	1	1.20mi
4120 Cristobal Way Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$4,750	$3.38	10d	1	1.22mi
4368 Railroad Ave Unit 9 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	839	$2,995	$3.57	34d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-30
   days on market $125,000 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-08-29
   days on market $125,000 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-08-28
   days on market $125,000 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-08-27
   days on market $125,000 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-08-26
   days on market $125,000 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-08-25
   days on market $125,000 Active 170 DOM
7. 2026-08-24
   days on market $125,000 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-08-23
   days on market $125,000 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-08-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-08-21
    days on market $125,000 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-08-20
    days on market $125,000 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-08-19
    days on market $125,000 Active 164 DOM
13. 2026-08-18
    days on market $125,000 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-08-17
    days on market $125,000 Active 162 DOM
15. 2026-08-16
    days on market $125,000 Active 161 DOM
16. 2026-08-15
    days on market $125,000 Active 160 DOM
17. 2026-08-14
    days on market $125,000 Active 159 DOM
18. 2026-08-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 158 DOM
19. 2026-08-12
    days on market $125,000 Active 157 DOM
20. 2026-08-11
    days on market $125,000 Active 156 DOM
21. 2026-08-10
    days on market $125,000 Active 155 DOM
22. 2026-08-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 154 DOM
23. 2026-08-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 153 DOM
24. 2026-08-06
    days on market $125,000 Active 151 DOM
25. 2026-08-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 150 DOM
26. 2026-08-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 149 DOM
27. 2026-08-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 148 DOM
28. 2026-07-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 145 DOM
29. 2026-07-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 144 DOM
30. 2026-07-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 143 DOM
31. 2026-07-28
    days on market $125,000 Active 142 DOM
32. 2026-07-26
    days on market $125,000 Active 140 DOM
33. 2026-07-24
    days on market $125,000 Active 138 DOM
34. 2026-07-23
    days on market $125,000 Active 137 DOM
35. 2026-07-22
    days on market $125,000 Active 136 DOM
36. 2026-07-21
    days on market $125,000 Active 135 DOM
37. 2026-07-20
    days on market $125,000 Active 134 DOM
38. 2026-07-18
    days on market $125,000 Active 132 DOM
39. 2026-07-18
    days on market $125,000 Active 131 DOM
40. 2026-07-16
    days on market $125,000 Active 130 DOM
41. 2026-07-15
    days on market $125,000 Active 129 DOM
42. 2026-07-14
    days on market $125,000 Active 128 DOM
43. 2026-07-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 127 DOM
44. 2026-07-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 126 DOM
45. 2026-07-11
    days on market $125,000 Active 125 DOM
46. 2026-07-10
    days on market $125,000 Active 124 DOM
47. 2026-07-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 123 DOM
48. 2026-07-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 121 DOM
49. 2026-07-06
    days on market $125,000 Active 120 DOM
50. 2026-07-06
    days on market $125,000 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,456
• − Management: −$2,456
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $12,653
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,037
• After-tax cash flow: $10,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $28,600–$51,480 screening

The home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, and replace the carpet. Landscaping improvements will also enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are outdated and in poor condition.
• Major Kitchen countertops — The countertops are outdated and in poor condition.
• Major Kitchen appliances — The appliances are outdated and in poor condition.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — The fixtures are outdated and in poor condition.
• Major Bathroom tiles — The tiles are possibly outdated or damaged.
• Major Carpet — The carpet is worn and may need replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen cabinets, countertops, and appliances — Updating the kitchen will significantly improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale New bathroom fixtures and possibly new tiles — Updating the bathroom will improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale New flooring — Replacing the carpet with a more modern and durable flooring option will improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements will enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Vintage Hills Elementary Middle Pleasanton Middle High Amador Valley High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasanton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $123,770
• Composite: 73.12/100
• National rank: #351
• State rank: #43 of 1400 in CA

A Composite livability gradescore 84/100

Livability — Pleasanton

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #655

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pleasanton, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,928,884 people
• City population: 78,550
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,222
• Household income: $191,155
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 38% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Chinese 10% Spanish 8%

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Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -841.68%
• Current HPI: 308.8324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.04%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+127.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Listed $125,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1996-12-17 Sold (MLS) $50,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1996-12-17 Sold (MLS) $50,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1996-11-08 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1996-09-25 Listed $55,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1996-09-25 Listed $55,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR