3231 Vineyard Ave #21 · Pleasanton, CA 94566

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured · 102 Days on market

$109/sqft · 46% below area Est $232k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained home in the very desirable Hacienda MH Park

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Listed 102 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.0% vs local median 1.3% in Pleasanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in CA, #655 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Pleasanton Unified (urban): math 75% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #43 of 1,400 in CA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $125k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.08%
• DSCR: 3.50
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,240
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -46.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3231 Vineyard Ave #141 #141	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+3%)	3mo	$236,000	$200	88
3231 Vineyard Ave #24	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-2%)	21mo	$175,000	$156	79
3231 Vineyard Ave #132	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,250 (+9%)	7mo	$159,000	$127	79
3263 Vineyard Ave #89	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,250 (+9%)	3mo	$280,000	$224	77
3231 Vineyard #33 #33	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	2mo	$159,000	$153	77
3231 Vineyard Ave #121	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	10mo	$225,000	$180	76
3263 Vineyard #132	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	5mo	$185,000	$148	73
3231 Vineyard #37	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+13%)	10mo	$270,000	$208	70
3231 Vineyard Ave. #20 #20	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-9%)	22mo	$195,000	$188	64
3263 Vineyard #68	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+14%)	2mo	$275,000	$212	64
3263 Vineyard Ave #192	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,050 (-8%)	23mo	$160,000	$152	60
3263 Vineyard #85	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (+14%)	23mo	$285,000	$218	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $93,947
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.42×
• Total profit: $259,711
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94566

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,164 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $1,636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
749 Palomino Dr Unit C Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1130	$3,250	$2.88	43d	1	0.58mi
835 Palomino Dr Unit 2 Pleasanton, CA	2.0	1.5	1080	$2,850	$2.64	20d	1	0.60mi
3819 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	863	$2,940	$3.40	1d	14	0.70mi
3847 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,700	$3.00	16d	1	0.74mi
242 Birch Creek Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.5	1221	$3,100	$2.54	43d	1	0.75mi
3955 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	829	$3,436	$4.14	1d	5	0.86mi
4059 Vineyard Ave Pleasanton, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,850	$2.96	24d	1	0.93mi
1539 Trimingham Dr Pleasanton, CA	2.0	2.0	1369	$3,600	$2.63	2d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-03-08
    listed $125,000 Active 59-char remark

    Show marketing remark (59 chars)

    Well-maintained home in the very desirable Hacienda MH Park

16. 1996-12-17
    soldstatus $50,000 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL/CHECK YOUR COMPS/NEW CARPET CLEAR TERMITE REPORT/INCLUDES REFRIG- WASHER-DRYER/NO NEED TO PREVIEW

17. 1996-12-17
    soldstatus $50,000

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL/CHECK YOUR COMPS/NEW CARPET CLEAR TERMITE REPORT/INCLUDES REFRIG- WASHER-DRYER/NO NEED TO PREVIEW

18. 1996-11-08
    historical 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL/CHECK YOUR COMPS/NEW CARPET CLEAR TERMITE REPORT/INCLUDES REFRIG- WASHER-DRYER/NO NEED TO PREVIEW

19. 1996-09-25
    listed $55,000 112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL/CHECK YOUR COMPS/NEW CARPET CLEAR TERMITE REPORT/INCLUDES REFRIG- WASHER-DRYER/NO NEED TO PREVIEW

20. 1996-09-25
    listed $55,000

    Show marketing remark (112 chars)

    PRICED TO SELL/CHECK YOUR COMPS/NEW CARPET CLEAR TERMITE REPORT/INCLUDES REFRIG- WASHER-DRYER/NO NEED TO PREVIEW

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,037
• − Management: −$3,037
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $18,755
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,501
• After-tax cash flow: $15,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasanton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $123,770
• Composite: 73.12/100
• National rank: #351
• State rank: #43 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pleasanton

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #655

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pleasanton, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 78,550
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,222
• Household income: $191,155
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 38% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Russian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 33% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Chinese 10% Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -841.68%
• Current HPI: 308.8324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.04%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+127.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Listed $125,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1996-12-17 Sold (MLS) $50,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1996-12-17 Sold (MLS) $50,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1996-11-08 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1996-09-25 Listed $55,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1996-09-25 Listed $55,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR