4 Cr 428 · Paris, MS 38655

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1963 0.79 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2238 sq ft for $199000 in Lafayette County? Come on now!! It's true, 3 bed 2 bath with 3 other separate areas to use as you wish. .79 acre surveyed (two tracts) . Needs a little TLC . 13 minutes to Oxford, Bruce or Water Valley ! Lets TAKE A LOOK ! Buyer to verify taxes and sq ft .

Key facts

• 0.79 acre lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 192 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lafayette County School District (town): math 47% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #29 of 130 in MS (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 855 active listings in the ZIP; 503 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.32%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,258
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $58,273
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38655

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 855
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,140 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,021/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,534

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 191 DOM
3. 2025-11-21
   listed $199,000 Active 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   2238 sq ft for $199000 in Lafayette County? Come on now!! It's true, 3 bed 2 bath with 3 other separate areas to use as you wish. .79 acre surveyed (two tracts) . Needs a little TLC . 13 minutes to Oxford, Bruce or Water Valley ! Lets TAKE A LOOK ! Buyer to verify taxes and sq ft .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,572 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$552/yr (+$46/mo · 54.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,021
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,054
• − Management: −$2,054
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $2,620
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$629
• After-tax cash flow: $5,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lafayette County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802370
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $46,476
• Composite: 37.09/100
• National rank: #4498
• State rank: #29 of 130 in MS

Livability — Paris

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, MS
• County: Lafayette County · 46,156 people
• Metro: Oxford, MS
• Population (ZIP): 46,156
• Household income: $68,235
• Rent vs Own: 39.6% rent · 60.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1892.0

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,984 people
• By 2030: 74,726 · +11.6%
• By 2040: 90,806 · +35.6%
• By 2050: 108,114 · +61.4%
• By 2075: 151,215 · +125.7%
• By 2100: 187,997 · +180.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.3% · R 60.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+12.3 2016: R+14.8 2012: R+15.6 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.86%
• Current HPI: 211.5486
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.85%
• Metro: Oxford, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-21 Listed $199,000 NCMBR

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,021 · +25.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.