649 Carnathan Ct · Wright, FL 32547

$159,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · Townhouse public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1981 4,356 sqft lot Est $174k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move- IN Ready - END UNIT, 2/2 Vinyl Townhome with Private Yard and 4 Parking Spaces! Open Floor plan - Large Living room/Dining that open to the Kitchen. Great Location - close to Beaches, Bases and Shopping! NEST Programmable Thermostat! All Tile Flooring (NO CARPET!) Fresh Paint, Lighting and Fixtures Throughout! Kitchen has a Large Breakfast Bar and newer appliances including Refrigerator with Ice Maker, a Dishwasher and a Glass top Range with Self-Cleaning Oven! There is a Built in Microwave which leaves plenty of extra countertop space. Each Bedroom has a Double Closet and a Private, Full Bath. Both Baths have been nicely updated. Outside, there is a Screened Porch, Laundry room with storage and a Large, fenced Back Yard. There is No Homeowners Association.

Key facts

• End unit
• Large breakfast bar
• Private yard

Tags

• END UNIT
• PRIVATE YARD
• LARGE BREAKFAST BAR
• SCREENED PORCH
• LAUNDRY ROOM WITH STORAGE
• LARGE FENCED BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in the Pine Run subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: 2 driveway spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electric service; Public water; Public sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Townhome; Single-story; Entry on first floor
• Construction: Built in 1981; Frame construction with vinyl siding and vinyl trim; Composite shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Chain-link fencing; Screened porch; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric water heater; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (master on the first floor)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; Master bathroom with tile
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Ceiling fan(s); High-efficiency AC; Heat pump (air-to-air)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Newly painted; Pantry; Woodwork painted; Double-pane windows; Window treatments; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.2% in Wright — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#117 in FL, #1,790 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Longwood Elementary School (math 30% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,841 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 548 students, 74% FRL); Choctawhatchee Senior High School (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D-, #220 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,677 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 36% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 60% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Okaloosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.28%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $173,784
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
710 Doyce Dr Unit C	0.09mi	2/1.5	1,207 (+8%)	1mo	$188,000	$156	79
537 Schneider Dr Unit C	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,190 (+7%)	18mo	$160,000	$134	68
1325 Greendale Ave #17	0.13mi	2/1.5	968 (-13%)	3mo	$84,250	$87	68
1325 Greendale Ave #25	0.13mi	2/1.5	968 (-13%)	7mo	$125,000	$129	64
1801 Whispering Oaks Ln	0.11mi	2/1.5	1,231 (+10%)	18mo	$175,000	$142	60
1329 Green Acres Blvd	0.17mi	2/1.5	1,214 (+9%)	19mo	$180,000	$148	60
1325 Greendale Ave #33	0.13mi	2/1.5	984 (-12%)	17mo	$190,000	$193	58
1810 Whispering Oaks Ln	0.14mi	2/1.5	1,243 (+12%)	18mo	$192,500	$155	58
593 Emerald Ln	0.67mi	2/1.5	1,048 (-6%)	7mo	$204,000	$195	51
1503 Greenacres Blvd Unit E	0.16mi	2/2.0	948 (-15%)	19mo	$233,000	$246	48
1010 Pineview Blvd Unit A	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,172 (+5%)	20mo	$229,000	$195	43
646 Emerald Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,246 (+12%)	3mo	$272,900	$219	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,614
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,826
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32547

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,740 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,029/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,254

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $474	-5% $429	+0% $384	+5% $338	+10% $293
Rent	-10% $246	-5% $315	+0% $384	+5% $452	+10% $521
Rate	-1.0pp $464	-0.5pp $424	base $384	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
632 Carnathan Ct Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,695	$2.12	15d	1	0.02mi
537 Schneider Dr Unit A Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1250	$1,650	$1.32	23d	1	0.08mi
702 Terrance Ct Unit A Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1009	$1,700	$1.68	15d	1	0.12mi
512 Landview St Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,250	$1.54	45d	1	0.13mi
1319 Greendale Ave Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	23d	1	0.15mi
713 N Park Blvd Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,950	$1.43	45d	1	0.16mi
507 Landview St Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,300	$1.44	23d	1	0.16mi
1917 Heartland Dr Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$2,200	$1.85	23d	1	0.23mi
1128 Sweetbriar Station Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,850	$1.61	23d	1	0.29mi
1825 Hunters Path Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1192	$1,825	$1.53	45d	1	0.33mi
1867 Heartland Dr Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,095	$1.61	23d	1	0.33mi
1916 Squirrel Path Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,795	$1.70	45d	1	0.34mi
1112 Green Tree Ct Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1181	$1,900	$1.61	45d	1	0.38mi
1705 Conservation Trl Unit 104 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,900	$1.60	23d	1	0.39mi
2113 Wilderness Path Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1253	$2,095	$1.67	45d	1	0.46mi
2113 Wilderness Path Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1253	$2,095	$1.67	15d	1	0.46mi
2132 Wilderness Path Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,675	$1.34	45d	1	0.48mi
1839 Sod Dr Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1425	$1,925	$1.35	23d	1	0.53mi
1008 Pineview Blvd Unit D Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	23d	1	0.58mi
2720 Willow Grove Ln Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1075	$1,800	$1.67	45d	1	0.58mi
2817 Old Carriage Ln Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	921	$1,950	$2.12	45d	1	0.62mi
913 Landry St #5 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	884	$1,200	$1.36	23d	1	0.63mi
216 Cloverdale Blvd Unit C Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1224	$1,700	$1.39	45d	1	0.74mi
984 Scenic Oak Ln Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1248	$1,650	$1.32	15d	1	0.77mi
976 Scenic Oak Ln Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1248	$1,675	$1.34	45d	1	0.78mi
977 Scenic Oak Ln Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1248	$1,650	$1.32	45d	1	0.79mi
954 Scenic Oak Ln Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1248	$1,700	$1.36	23d	1	0.83mi
905 Piedmont Pl Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,695	$1.30	45d	1	0.84mi
1500 Lewis Turner Blvd Fort Walton Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	718	$1,695	$2.36	45d	1	0.91mi
2800 Bradford Pl NW Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	15d	5	0.91mi
2809 Bradford Pl NW Unit 4 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	928	$1,250	$1.35	45d	1	0.97mi
2809 Bradford Pl NW Unit 3 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	928	$1,300	$1.40	15d	1	0.97mi
2812 Bradford Pl NW Unit 4 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	928	$1,250	$1.35	23d	1	0.99mi
2813 Bradford Pl NW Unit 2 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	928	$1,300	$1.40	15d	1	1.00mi
964 Southern Oaks Ct Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1315	$2,000	$1.52	45d	1	1.00mi
2814 Bradford Pl NW Unit 3 Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	928	$1,250	$1.35	23d	1	1.00mi
915 Emily Cir Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1358	$2,195	$1.62	15d	1	1.01mi
1504 E Ponderosa Rd Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	23d	1	1.08mi
806 Fairview Dr Fort Walton Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	901	$1,350	$1.50	45d	1	1.16mi
940 Central Ave #16 Fort Walton Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,800	$1.36	15d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $159,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,029 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,327 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$298/yr (+$25/mo · 29.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,029
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,670
• − Management: −$1,670
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $2,103
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$505
• After-tax cash flow: $4,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wright

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #1790

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wright, FL
• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 35,522
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,527
• Household income: $70,711
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1203.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.28%
• Current HPI: 268.6497
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.13%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+386.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $159,900 ECAR
• 2020-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $149,700 Public Records
• 2020-09-30 Sold (MLS) $149,700 NAMLS
• 2020-09-30 Sold (MLS) $149,700 ECAR
• 2020-09-11 Pending — ECAR
• 2020-09-07 Listed $149,700 ECAR
• 2020-09-07 Listed $149,700 NAMLS
• 2010-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 1997-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $35,300 Public Records
• 1997-05-10 Sold (MLS) $35,300 ECAR
• 1997-02-01 Listed $42,500 ECAR
• 1981-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,029 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.