153 Primrose Ln · Winding Cypress, FL 34114

$73,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1975

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A wonderful vintage home. Cozy without being so updated. A beautiful Florida room was added on after purchase. With a carport on one side and a beautiful patio right off of the living room for outdoor cooking and relaxing! The bathroom has dual sinks for ease getting ready in the morning, and is right next to the main bedroom that has two closets and a spacious built in dresser in between them. There is a utility room to the back of the Florida room for storage and laundry. The home is being sold furnished.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Utility room
• Florida room

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• CARPORT
• PATIO
• DUAL SINKS
• UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 672
• Financial info: Financial details not provided
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Utilities details not provided
• Home design: Built in 1975; Single-family property (exact stories/entry level not specified)
• Construction: Exterior construction details not provided
• Exterior features: Located in the South Naples subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not provided
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: Bathrooms information not provided
• Heating & cooling: Heating and cooling details not provided
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry and utility details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $917 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $505 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.88%
• DSCR: 4.51
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $52,078
• Equity at exit: $15,951

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.26×
• Total profit: $127,955
• Equity at exit: $15,366

Cash invested: $20,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34114

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 900
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $410/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $917

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,106

Max offer price $73,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $958	-5% $938	+0% $917	+5% $896	+10% $876
Rent	-10% $738	-5% $827	+0% $917	+5% $1,007	+10% $1,096
Rate	-1.0pp $954	-0.5pp $936	base $917	+0.5pp $898	+1.0pp $879

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,250
• Closing costs: $2,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2000 Rookery Bay Dr Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,772	$1.91	24d	9	0.69mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $73,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $73,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $73,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $73,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   remarks 512-char remark
6. 2026-06-10
   listed $73,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $410 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $606 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: +$196/yr (+$16/mo · 47.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,089
• − Property taxes: −$410
• − Insurance: −$5,484
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,176
• − Management: −$2,176
• − Depreciation: −$2,124
• Taxable income: $10,745
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,579
• After-tax cash flow: $8,425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winding Cypress

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,559
• Household income: $89,334
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 550.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 266.5545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $73,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $410 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.