415 Wilson Dr · McComb, MS 39648

$120,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,861 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1979 0.75 ac lot $64/sqft · 12% below area Est $190k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice large home in a great neighborhood. Three city lots provide a great backyard. Home warranty provided. Priced at only $35 sq/ft. Updated!! This is a deal!!!!!!

Key facts

• Spacious front yard
• Beautiful kitchen
• Stunning patio

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED
• BEAUTIFUL KITCHEN
• STUNNING PATIO
• CLOSED IN GARAGE
• SPACIOUS FRONT YARD
• SPACIOUS BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Near entertainment, park, and street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with direct access; Parking for 4 vehicles
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors; Security fence
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick construction; Metal roof; Chainwall foundation; Assessor-listed living area
• Exterior features: Rear brick porch; Private entrance; Rain gutters; Back yard fencing; Shed(s); Barn(s); Level, city lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Free-standing refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Built-in bookcases; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Storage; Sliding doors; Aluminum-framed windows with blinds; Gas log and wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located on lower level and inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($864/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#50 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mccomb School District (town): math 15% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #106 of 130 in MS (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.57%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,405
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -36.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
215 Shelly Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,927 (+4%)	11mo	$159,900	$83	69
1509 Park Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	1,881 (+1%)	12mo	$165,000	$88	66
1612 Pope Cir	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,896 (+2%)	10mo	$160,440	$85	61
1400 Stokes Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,813 (-3%)	15mo	$209,500	$116	58
209 Westview Cir	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,038 (+10%)	23mo	$199,000	$98	57
808 24th St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-4%)	16mo	$99,500	$56	56
813 Hart Rd Unit Ext	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,664 (-11%)	8mo	$165,900	$100	50
914 Pope Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,034 (+9%)	16mo	$160,000	$79	46
103 Shannon Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,623 (-13%)	19mo	$159,000	$98	44
1015 Prairie Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,093 (+12%)	11mo	$188,000	$90	44
1023 Virginia Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,768 (-5%)	22mo	$86,000	$49	38
1710 Pope Cir	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,598 (-14%)	21mo	$164,500	$103	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-14,778
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-6,635
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39648

• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $2,996/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,176

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
238 Westview Cir McComb, MS	3.0	2.0	1574	$1,300	$0.83	44d	1	0.10mi
1240 Parklane Rd McComb, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	994	$999	$1.01	44d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $120,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    listed $160,000 Active 847-char remark
17. 2013-02-06
    soldstatus
18. 2013-02-05
    soldstatus 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Nice large home in a great neighborhood. Three city lots provide a great backyard. Home warranty provided. Priced at only $35 sq/ft. Updated!! This is a deal!!!!!!

19. 2010-04-15
    listed $85,000 163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (163 chars)

    Nice large home in a great neighborhood. Three city lots provide a great backyard. Home warranty provided. Priced at only $35 sq/ft. Updated!! This is a deal!!!!!!

20. 2004-02-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,996 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,996 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,996
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,216
• − Management: −$1,216
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,037
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$249
• After-tax cash flow: $1,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mccomb School District
• NCES district ID: 2802880
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $29,855
• Composite: 12.26/100
• National rank: #9645
• State rank: #106 of 130 in MS

Livability — McComb

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #8347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McComb, MS
• Population (ZIP): 19,767

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,766 people
• By 2030: 37,874 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 35,743 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 33,276 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 26,799 · -30.9%
• By 2100: 18,562 · -52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 32% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 51.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: 3.5pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+0.7 2012: D+7.6 2008: D+3.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.61%
• Current HPI: 92.2495
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+41.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $120,000 MLSU
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $140,000 MLSU
• 2026-05-09 Listed $160,000 MLSU
• 2013-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-02-05 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2010-04-15 Listed $85,000 MLSU
• 2004-02-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,996 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.