3201 Velma Ln · Melissa, TX 75454

$379,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,054 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 2021 6,098 sqft lot $185/sqft · 19% below area Est $469k · 19% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Motivated seller ! LENDER PAID BUYDOWN! This pristine, east-facing UnionMain Home is situated on a corner lot with great curb appeal and is within walking distance to Melissa High School and the new $35 million stadium! Upon entry, you’re welcomed by an abundance of natural light, tray ceilings in the foyer, an elegant formal dining room, and hardwood floors throughout the main areas. Natural light streams through the open, airy family room, dining area, and kitchen—creating an ideal layout for both everyday living and entertaining. The gourmet kitchen shows like a model home and comes equipped with chef-grade stainless steel appliances and a vent hood, a gas burner cooktop, a walk-in pantry, a large center island with captivating lighting, and gorgeous granite countertops. The split primary bedroom offers privacy and features an ensuite bathroom with granite countertops, a large walk-in closet, a walk-in shower, and a soaking tub to unwind after a long day. The fourth bedroom is also split from the other bedrooms, making it perfect for a home office or extended-stay guests. The spacious backyard offers an expansive covered patio that will certainly be the setting for many future gatherings. Enjoy fabulous community amenities, quick access to major routes, and an array of entertainment and dining options. Bring All Offers!

Key facts

• Vent hood
• Large center island
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• VENT HOOD
• GAS BURNER COOKTOP
• WALK IN PANTRY
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $379k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-830 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (38.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (29.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.9% in Melissa — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#477 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Melissa ISD (suburban): math 65% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #24 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Harry Mckillop El (math 74% / reading 68%, grade A-, #128 of 4,322 statewide, top 3%, 955 students, 18% FRL); Melissa Middle (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B+, #128 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 1,232 students, 0% FRL); Melissa H S (math 69% / reading 76%, grade B+, #94 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 1,485 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 6% FRL vs 24% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 17135% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,293 (38.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.39%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $469,322
• List price: $379,000
• Delta: -19.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3110 Willow Place Dr	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,008 (-2%)	5mo	$410,000	$204	69
3519 Laurel Valley Ln	0.43mi	4/2.0	2,245 (+9%)	1mo	$434,900	$194	64
3003 Pinyon Pl	0.62mi	4/3.0	1,894 (-8%)	0mo	$355,000	$187	54
3615 White Summit Ln	0.40mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,272 (+11%)	3mo	$352,900	$155	52
2645 Bryant St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-7%)	4mo	$280,000	$147	50
3619 Wolf Creek Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,757 (-14%)	1mo	$349,900	$199	48
3034 Whispering Pine Blvd	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,832 (-11%)	6mo	$345,000	$188	48
3420 Running Stream Way	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,333 (+14%)	8mo	$524,455	$225	44
3804 White Summit Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (-15%)	2mo	$319,900	$182	43
3010 Campbell Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,317 (+13%)	3mo	$498,500	$215	41
3803 Spring Run Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,757 (-14%)	7mo	$280,000	$159	39
3007 Milton Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,342 (+14%)	8mo	$490,000	$209	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-121,896
• Equity at exit: $56,510

10-year hold

• IRR: -79.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.92×
• Total profit: $-203,531
• Equity at exit: $32,769

Cash invested: $106,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75454

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,670 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,988
• Tax from tax record: −$695 /mo · $8,334/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-830

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,721

Max offer price $232,293

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-616	-5% $-723	+0% $-830	+5% $-938	+10% $-1,045
Rent	-10% $-1,041	-5% $-936	+0% $-830	+5% $-725	+10% $-620
Rate	-1.0pp $-640	-0.5pp $-734	base $-830	+0.5pp $-929	+1.0pp $-1,029

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,750
• Closing costs: $11,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3509 Clara Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.5	2055	$2,700	$1.31	6d	1	0.06mi
3511 Clara Dr Melissa, TX	5.0	3.0	2771	$3,050	$1.10	14d	1	0.07mi
3217 Willena Rd Melissa, TX	4.0	3.0	2213	$2,680	$1.21	7d	1	0.24mi
3216 Creekhaven Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2338	$2,795	$1.20	12d	1	0.27mi
3600 White Summit Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,350	$1.16	20d	1	0.30mi
3411 Kodiak Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,700	$1.12	45d	1	0.33mi
3621 Spring Run Ln Melissa, TX	5.0	4.0	2760	$2,829	$1.02	45d	1	0.43mi
3101 Spanish Oak Trl Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	2360	$2,195	$0.93	26d	1	0.47mi
3020 Whispering Pine Blvd Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1918	$2,290	$1.19	45d	1	0.51mi
3100 Whispering Pine Blvd Melissa, TX	4.0	2.5	2473	$2,550	$1.03	45d	1	0.53mi
3105 Whispering Pine Blvd Melissa, TX	3.0	3.0	2353	$2,450	$1.04	45d	1	0.56mi
3814 Spring Run Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1882	$2,150	$1.14	0d	1	0.60mi
3007 Hickory Rdg Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1948	$2,150	$1.10	18d	1	0.65mi
2510 Lovegrass Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1990	$2,450	$1.23	20d	1	0.69mi
2595 Bryant St Melissa, TX	4.0	3.0	2432	$2,350	$0.97	45d	1	0.71mi
3513 Sunflower St Melissa, TX	3.0	2.5	2140	$2,400	$1.12	0d	1	0.73mi
3810 Honeycomb Holw Melissa, TX	5.0	3.5	2777	$2,850	$1.03	26d	1	0.80mi
4009 Mockingbird Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	3.0	1766	$2,195	$1.24	26d	1	0.84mi
2221 Grassland Ave Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,500	$1.21	45d	1	0.86mi
3410 Taas DR Melissa, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5	1653	$2,758	$1.67	0d	17	0.87mi
4008 Gray Wolf Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1743	$2,145	$1.23	14d	1	0.88mi
4009 Gray Wolf Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1960	$2,350	$1.20	20d	1	0.88mi
3404 Herron Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2445	$2,450	$1.00	8d	1	0.89mi
2215 Grassland Ave Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	2562	$2,800	$1.09	5d	1	0.90mi
2211 Grassland Ave Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	2503	$2,600	$1.04	45d	1	0.92mi
2614 Fritz St Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,500	$1.19	14d	1	0.92mi
2613 Patriot Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	3.5	2756	$2,850	$1.03	45d	1	0.92mi
4006 Cottontail Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	2266	$2,600	$1.15	20d	1	0.97mi
2030 Milrany Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	3.0	1939	$2,400	$1.24	45d	1	0.98mi
3324 Celestial Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	2.5	2055	$2,300	$1.12	45d	1	0.98mi
2011 Winecup Dr Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1593	$2,095	$1.32	45d	1	0.99mi
2203 Poppy Valley Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1871	$2,395	$1.28	45d	1	1.00mi
2203 Poppy Valley Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1871	$2,395	$1.28	46d	1	1.00mi
3315 Celestial Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1792	$2,150	$1.20	45d	1	1.02mi
3315 Celestial Ln Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1792	$2,150	$1.20	14d	1	1.02mi
3308 Dahlia Dr Melissa, TX	3.0	2.0	1468	$3,000	$2.04	45d	1	1.04mi
2903 Diamondback Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1956	$2,400	$1.23	26d	1	1.06mi
4303 Crossvine Ln Melissa, TX	4.0	3.5	2314	$2,800	$1.21	0d	1	1.06mi
2818 Diamondback Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	2.0	1960	$2,445	$1.25	45d	1	1.07mi
1905 Winecup Dr Melissa, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$2,450	$1.06	45d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,000 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,000 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $379,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,000 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $379,000 1356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1356 chars)

    Motivated seller ! LENDER PAID BUYDOWN! This pristine, east-facing UnionMain Home is situated on a corner lot with great curb appeal and is within walking distance to Melissa High School and the new $35 million stadium! Upon entry, you’re welcomed by an abundance of natural light, tray ceilings in the foyer, an elegant formal dining room, and hardwood floors throughout the main areas. Natural light streams through the open, airy family room, dining area, and kitchen—creating an ideal layout for both everyday living and entertaining. The gourmet kitchen shows like a model home and comes equipped with chef-grade stainless steel appliances and a vent hood, a gas burner cooktop, a walk-in pantry, a large center island with captivating lighting, and gorgeous granite countertops. The split primary bedroom offers privacy and features an ensuite bathroom with granite countertops, a large walk-in closet, a walk-in shower, and a soaking tub to unwind after a long day. The fourth bedroom is also split from the other bedrooms, making it perfect for a home office or extended-stay guests. The spacious backyard offers an expansive covered patio that will certainly be the setting for many future gatherings. Enjoy fabulous community amenities, quick access to major routes, and an array of entertainment and dining options. Bring All Offers!

17. 2026-02-14
    historical $2,199
18. 2026-01-29
    listed $2,199
19. 2026-01-27
    listed $399,000 Active 1356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1356 chars)

    Motivated seller ! LENDER PAID BUYDOWN! This pristine, east-facing UnionMain Home is situated on a corner lot with great curb appeal and is within walking distance to Melissa High School and the new $35 million stadium! Upon entry, you’re welcomed by an abundance of natural light, tray ceilings in the foyer, an elegant formal dining room, and hardwood floors throughout the main areas. Natural light streams through the open, airy family room, dining area, and kitchen—creating an ideal layout for both everyday living and entertaining. The gourmet kitchen shows like a model home and comes equipped with chef-grade stainless steel appliances and a vent hood, a gas burner cooktop, a walk-in pantry, a large center island with captivating lighting, and gorgeous granite countertops. The split primary bedroom offers privacy and features an ensuite bathroom with granite countertops, a large walk-in closet, a walk-in shower, and a soaking tub to unwind after a long day. The fourth bedroom is also split from the other bedrooms, making it perfect for a home office or extended-stay guests. The spacious backyard offers an expansive covered patio that will certainly be the setting for many future gatherings. Enjoy fabulous community amenities, quick access to major routes, and an array of entertainment and dining options. Bring All Offers!

20. 2025-09-09
    historical
21. 2025-07-01
    listed $460,000 Active
22. 2022-03-31
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2022-03-18
    status Pending
24. 2022-02-02
    price $568,940
25. 2021-12-21
    price $529,190
26. 2021-12-02
    price $509,190
27. 2021-11-19
    price $499,190
28. 2021-11-15
    listed $474,190 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,334 · $695/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,334 · $695/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,230
• − Property taxes: −$8,334
• − Insurance: −$1,895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,563
• − Management: −$2,563
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$11,025
• Taxable loss: −$16,769
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,024
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Melissa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830120
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $82,500
• Composite: 58.34/100
• National rank: #1012
• State rank: #24 of 826 in TX

Livability — Melissa

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #9595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Melissa, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 22,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,990
• Household income: $138,827
• Rent vs Own: 11.4% rent · 88.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 246.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.66%
• Current HPI: 235.2508
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $379,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-14 Rental Removed $2,199 NTREIS
• 2026-01-29 Listed for Rent $2,199 NTREIS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $399,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $460,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-31 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-03-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-02-02 Price Changed $568,940 NTREIS
• 2021-12-21 Price Changed $529,190 NTREIS
• 2021-12-02 Price Changed $509,190 NTREIS
• 2021-11-19 Price Changed $499,190 NTREIS
• 2021-11-15 Listed $474,190 NTREIS

Property tax history

+27.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,334 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.