404 Eva St · Irwin, IA 51446

$25,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 300 Days on market

Built 1905 8,250 sqft lot $17/sqft · 70% below area ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity with strong potential! This property features updated kitchen cabinets completed in recent years and a functional layout ready for the next owner’s vision. Furnace is approximately 10 years old. The home currently does not have working central air conditioning; however, an existing AC unit (approx. 15 years old) is in place and operational and would require ductwork installation. The property has a crawl space foundation, with the addition build/add on, on a slab. Much of the electrical system is older but remains functional and offers an opportunity for future upgrades. Once the roof is replaced, the primary remaining improvements include drywall and electrical updates. Property is being sold as-is and offers excellent potential for investors or buyers looking to build equity. All information obtained from seller and public records.

Key facts

• 8,250 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1905

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $839 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#346 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ikm-Manning Community School District (rural): math 75% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #58 of 289 in IA (top 20%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Irwin Elementary School (math 84% / reading 64%, grade A, #131 of 616 statewide, top 27%, 230 students, 39% FRL); Ikm-Manning Middle School (math 78% / reading 80%, grade A+, #42 of 246 statewide, top 17%, 284 students, 35% FRL); Ikm-Manning High School (math 67% / reading 82%, grade B+, #89 of 336 statewide, top 30%, 196 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $624 of equity ($173 loan paydown + $451 appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $22,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 143.75%
• DSCR: 7.40
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,024
• List price: $25,000
• Delta: -69.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.84×
• Total profit: $54,888
• Equity at exit: $9,598

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.51×
• Total profit: $122,583
• Equity at exit: $13,623

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51446

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $226/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $839

Break-even live

Break-even rent $203

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $853	-5% $846	+0% $839	+5% $831	+10% $824
Rent	-10% $739	-5% $789	+0% $839	+5% $889	+10% $938
Rate	-1.0pp $851	-0.5pp $845	base $839	+0.5pp $832	+1.0pp $826

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $25,000 Active 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $25,000 Active 299 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 297 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 296 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 294 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $25,000 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 288 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $25,000 Active 287 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $25,000 Active 286 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $25,000 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $25,000 Active 282 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 281 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 280 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 279 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 278 DOM
18. 2026-02-25
    price $25,000 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    Great investment opportunity with strong potential! This property features updated kitchen cabinets completed in recent years and a functional layout ready for the next owner’s vision. Furnace is approximately 10 years old. The home currently does not have working central air conditioning; however, an existing AC unit (approx. 15 years old) is in place and operational and would require ductwork installation. The property has a crawl space foundation, with the addition build/add on, on a slab. Much of the electrical system is older but remains functional and offers an opportunity for future upgrades. Once the roof is replaced, the primary remaining improvements include drywall and electrical updates. Property is being sold as-is and offers excellent potential for investors or buyers looking to build equity. All information obtained from seller and public records.

19. 2025-08-25
    listed $35,000 Active 880-char remark

    Show marketing remark (880 chars)

    Great investment opportunity with strong potential! This property features updated kitchen cabinets completed in recent years and a functional layout ready for the next owner’s vision. Furnace is approximately 10 years old. The home currently does not have working central air conditioning; however, an existing AC unit (approx. 15 years old) is in place and operational and would require ductwork installation. The property has a crawl space foundation, with the addition build/add on, on a slab. Much of the electrical system is older but remains functional and offers an opportunity for future upgrades. Once the roof is replaced, the primary remaining improvements include drywall and electrical updates. Property is being sold as-is and offers excellent potential for investors or buyers looking to build equity. All information obtained from seller and public records.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $226 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $309 · $26/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 36.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$226
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $10,267
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,464
• After-tax cash flow: $7,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ikm-Manning Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1914880
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,285
• Composite: 64.68/100
• National rank: #524
• State rank: #58 of 289 in IA

Livability — Irwin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Irwin, IA
• Population (ZIP): 437

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,637 people
• By 2030: 11,472 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 11,146 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 10,791 · -7.3%
• By 2075: 10,601 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 10,338 · -11.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Iranian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.0) · D 27.9% · R 70.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.3pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -43.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.0 2020: R+40.3 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.80%
• Current HPI: 181.0425
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $25,000 DMMLS
• 2025-08-25 Listed $35,000 DMMLS

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $226 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.