3109 Lynmar Ln · Keller, TX 76179

$273,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,792 sqft lot $171/sqft · 38% below area Est $444k · 38% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lennar's Pinehollow Floor Plan

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing conditions; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee (includes full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, and management fees)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with two covered spaces; Garage faces rear; Garage approximately 20' wide by 18' deep
• Security: Burglar alarm; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Fire alarm; Prewired for security; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Concrete access; Power and utilities available; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; New construction (incomplete, year built 2026); Not attached to another property; Deed restrictions
• Construction: Brick and fiber cement exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Landscaped interior lot; Sidewalks and curbs

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and gas cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen with built-in cabinets; Natural stone/granite countertops; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on main level with dual sinks and linen closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Walk-in closets; Open floor plan with 2 living areas and 1 dining area; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility features not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $274k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($833/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.4% in Keller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#15 in TX, #1,130 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Keller ISD (urban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #91 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1050 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,789 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $444,319
• List price: $273,999
• Delta: -38.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
424 Brian Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,619 (+1%)	17mo	$449,000	$277	75
1101 Hillside Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (+3%)	0mo	$559,900	$341	67
420 Brian Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,733 (+8%)	23mo	$479,900	$277	58
721 Santa Cruz Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,809 (+13%)	10mo	$450,000	$249	33
715 Santa Cruz Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (+14%)	10mo	$449,900	$247	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-43,666
• Equity at exit: $40,854

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-47,003
• Equity at exit: $23,690

Cash invested: $76,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76179

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1050
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,538 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,110/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,450

Max offer price $273,999

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $164	+0% $69	+5% $-25	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-31	+0% $69	+5% $170	+10% $270
Rate	-1.0pp $207	-0.5pp $139	base $69	+0.5pp $-2	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,500
• Closing costs: $8,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12729 Northern Pine Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,600	$1.25	6d	1	0.80mi
12737 Northern Pine Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$2,050	$1.36	8d	1	0.81mi
4636 Mountain Oak St Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	2236	$2,375	$1.06	11d	1	0.99mi
12640 Shady Cedar Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	2105	$2,236	$1.06	0d	1	1.03mi
116 Johnson Rd Keller, TX	3.0	2.0	1581	$5,500	$3.48	44d	1	1.03mi
4541 Martingale View Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	2080	$2,150	$1.03	44d	1	1.13mi
12752 Pricklybranch Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,375	$1.36	14d	1	1.16mi
423 Marsha St Keller, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,950	$1.63	22d	1	1.20mi
11540 Lavonia Rd Keller, TX	4.0	2.0	1877	$2,998	$1.60	44d	1	1.20mi
13048 Palancar Dr Keller, TX	3.0	2.0	1830	$2,450	$1.34	44d	1	1.20mi
4721 Lazy Oaks St Keller, TX	4.0	2.0	2080	$2,595	$1.25	44d	1	1.21mi
4548 Fern Valley Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1975	$2,500	$1.27	19d	1	1.33mi
13117 Larks View Pt Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	2113	$2,840	$1.34	44d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 30-char remark
2. 2026-05-15
   price $273,999 30-char remark
3. 2026-05-12
   listed $278,999 Active 30-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,348
• − Property taxes: −$4,110
• − Insurance: −$1,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,436
• − Management: −$2,436
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,971
• Taxable loss: −$3,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$893
• After-tax cash flow: $1,726/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with minimal cosmetic updates needed. Painting and landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modernizes spaces and improves functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Modernizes spaces and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825260
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $92,106
• Composite: 48.46/100
• National rank: #2131
• State rank: #91 of 826 in TX

Livability — Keller

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #1130

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keller, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 40,936
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 80,090
• Household income: $107,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1494.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.12%
• Current HPI: 237.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.51%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $273,999 NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $278,999 NTREIS