Claremont Plan · St. John Fisher College, NY 14625

$126,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured · 14 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Claremont Plan, Rochester, NY 14625; Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $126,900

Exterior

• Home design: Claremont plan; New construction plan
• Exterior features: 1232 finished living area (plan)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan-design kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open, single-level living space

🏗️ New construction. The $126,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $89,936.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $127k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $127k).
• Cap rate 24.3% vs local median 16.6% in St. John Fisher College — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Penfield Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #67 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $126,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.20%
• DSCR: 3.86
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,936
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8 Harway Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-5%)	7mo	$73,500	$63	84
26 Fondiller Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-3%)	5mo	$71,000	$59	79
2 Beatrice	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,143 (-7%)	9mo	$90,000	$79	71
6 Patio Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,177 (-4%)	18mo	$86,000	$73	68
11 Bittersweet Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-7%)	11mo	$77,000	$67	63
9 Oakside Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-14%)	2mo	$72,000	$68	63
2 Penview Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+14%)	9mo	$155,000	$110	61
1 Beatrice Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,387 (+13%)	13mo	$132,000	$95	60
27 Glazer Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-11%)	9mo	$65,000	$59	60
34 Ewald Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,387 (+13%)	11mo	$130,000	$94	60
36 Sebastian Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,387 (+13%)	10mo	$130,000	$94	55
23 Clove Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-12%)	16mo	$74,900	$69	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $71,273
• Equity at exit: $13,410

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.86×
• Total profit: $172,708
• Equity at exit: $7,776

Cash invested: $25,182 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14625

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,492 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,349/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $1,347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $89,936

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,409	-5% $1,378	+0% $1,347	+5% $1,316	+10% $1,285
Rent	-10% $1,150	-5% $1,249	+0% $1,347	+5% $1,446	+10% $1,544
Rate	-1.0pp $1,393	-0.5pp $1,370	base $1,347	+0.5pp $1,324	+1.0pp $1,300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,484
• Closing costs: $2,698
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3540 East Ave Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1261	$4,123	$3.27	3d	10	0.50mi
278 Penn Ln Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1184	$2,100	$1.77	4d	1	1.10mi
18 Brook Hill Ln Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,915	$2.28	3d	1	1.14mi
214 Magnolia Ave East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	24d	1	1.35mi
218 1/2 Magnolia Ave East Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,400	$1.17	44d	1	1.36mi
126 West Ave Unit UPPER East Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	820	$1,500	$1.83	20d	1	1.41mi
108 W Filbert St Unit 2 East Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,525	$1.39	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $126,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $126,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $126,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $126,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $126,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $126,900 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $126,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $126,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $126,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,038
• − Property taxes: −$1,349
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,392
• − Management: −$2,392
• − Depreciation: −$2,616
• Taxable income: $15,668
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,760
• After-tax cash flow: $12,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates to its exterior and interior, including new siding and flooring. These improvements will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — The satellite image shows the home's exterior siding in poor condition.
• Major interior flooring — The listing photo shows carpet and linoleum flooring, which may need replacement or repair.

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and replace exterior siding — A new exterior siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both repair and replace interior flooring — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · The satellite image shows the home's exterior siding in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior flooring · The listing photo shows carpet and linoleum flooring, which may need replacement or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and replace exterior siding — A new exterior siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both repair and replace interior flooring — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622710
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $74,802
• Composite: 68.37/100
• National rank: #347
• State rank: #67 of 590 in NY

Livability — St. John Fisher College

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,667

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.69%
• Current HPI: 275.9721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B