8200 Jantzen Rd #8 · Hughson, CA 95357

$160,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 29 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $118k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcoming this remodeled and updated 2 bed, 2 bath home located in a beautiful all-age park! Featuring a great open floor plan when you first walk in, this move-in ready home offers a warm and inviting feel throughout. The open laundry room offers lots of storage space for added convenience. Recent updates include a new roof installed in 2025, newer furnace, dual-pane windows, all new blinds, fresh landscaping, a new outdoor shed, and much more! Enjoy affordable living with low space rent and great community amenities including a soccer field and playground area for kids. This is a great park to call home come check it out, this one won't last long!

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Open floor plan
• Updated

Tags

• REMODELED
• UPDATED
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN LAUNDRY ROOM
• STORAGE SPACE
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Modesto, CA 95357 (use GPS for park directions)
• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts in kitchen
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Fleetwood make; Built in 1984; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Patio awning and covered patio; Carport awning; Covered porch/deck with railings; Shed(s); Automatic sprinkler front and rear

Interior

• Kitchen: Marble countertops; Free standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Free standing gas oven
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Open beam ceiling in the living area; Dual pane full windows; Porch steps and covered patio/deck with railings; Storage shed on property; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside (inside room/area); 220 volt electrical in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.4% in Hughson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#458 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Empire Union Elementary (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #398 of 517 in CA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.82%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,272
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8200 Jantzen Dr #225	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	7mo	$94,000	$69	91
8200 Jantzen Rd #32	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	5mo	$120,000	$88	88
8200 Jantzen Rd #3	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-3%)	7mo	$85,000	$65	83
8200 Jantzen Rd #224	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	21mo	$142,500	$104	80
8200 Jantzen #237	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+9%)	6mo	$109,900	$75	75
8200 Jantzen Rd #197	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	18mo	$130,000	$104	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $9,343
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $53,640
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95357

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7237 Yosemite Blvd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $160,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $4,351
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,044
• After-tax cash flow: $5,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Empire Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0612690
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,808
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8193
• State rank: #398 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hughson

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #458
• US rank: #15641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 225,261
• Population (ZIP): 14,283

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 37% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.94%
• Current HPI: 283.9315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B