4668 Green Valley Rd · Lebanon, VA 24266

$169,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 358 Days on market

Built 1954 0.70 ac lot $130/sqft · 11% below area Est $191k · 11% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turns Out Buyers Like Water So the Seller Installed a Brand-New Well! This charming 1954 brick ranch is back on the market and better than ever. Since buyers understandably feel that water is a requirement when purchasing a home, the seller has had a brand-new well installed, making this property ready for its next chapter. Offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, this solid brick home features spacious rooms, a traditional ranch layout, and easy one-level living. It's the perfect opportunity for a buyer who wants a home with character and the ability to add their own updates and style. Situated just outside of town, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being only minutes from local schools, shopping, and everyday conveniences. Outside, the home features durable brick construction, a covered carport, and a nice yard ideal for gardening, relaxing evenings, or family gatherings. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking for a home with great bones, this one deserves a look. Now that the water situation is solved all it needs is its next owner!

Key facts

• Level yard
• Covered carport
• One-level living

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• COVERED CARPORT
• LEVEL YARD
• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• TRADITIONAL FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-668/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.7% in Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#115 in VA, #3,561 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Russell County Public School District (rural): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #44 of 131 in VA (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Russell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.7% local appreciation)).
• Russell County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 358 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,149 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 358 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,564
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -11.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4781 Green Valley Rd	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,202 (-7%)	20mo	$183,500	$153	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.71% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,517
• Equity at exit: $64,023

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $39,332
• Equity at exit: $90,211

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24266

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $444/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,342

Max offer price $159,167

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,000 Active 358 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 357 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 356 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 355 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 354 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 352 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 351 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 349 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 348 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 347 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 346 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 341 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 340 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 339 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,000 Active 338 DOM
16. 2026-03-10
    price $169,000 1082-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1082 chars)

    Turns Out Buyers Like Water So the Seller Installed a Brand-New Well! This charming 1954 brick ranch is back on the market and better than ever. Since buyers understandably feel that water is a requirement when purchasing a home, the seller has had a brand-new well installed, making this property ready for its next chapter. Offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, this solid brick home features spacious rooms, a traditional ranch layout, and easy one-level living. It's the perfect opportunity for a buyer who wants a home with character and the ability to add their own updates and style. Situated just outside of town, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being only minutes from local schools, shopping, and everyday conveniences. Outside, the home features durable brick construction, a covered carport, and a nice yard ideal for gardening, relaxing evenings, or family gatherings. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking for a home with great bones, this one deserves a look. Now that the water situation is solved all it needs is its next owner!

17. 2026-01-09
    status Active 1082-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1082 chars)

    Turns Out Buyers Like Water So the Seller Installed a Brand-New Well! This charming 1954 brick ranch is back on the market and better than ever. Since buyers understandably feel that water is a requirement when purchasing a home, the seller has had a brand-new well installed, making this property ready for its next chapter. Offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, this solid brick home features spacious rooms, a traditional ranch layout, and easy one-level living. It's the perfect opportunity for a buyer who wants a home with character and the ability to add their own updates and style. Situated just outside of town, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being only minutes from local schools, shopping, and everyday conveniences. Outside, the home features durable brick construction, a covered carport, and a nice yard ideal for gardening, relaxing evenings, or family gatherings. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking for a home with great bones, this one deserves a look. Now that the water situation is solved all it needs is its next owner!

18. 2026-01-01
    historical 1082-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1082 chars)

    Turns Out Buyers Like Water So the Seller Installed a Brand-New Well! This charming 1954 brick ranch is back on the market and better than ever. Since buyers understandably feel that water is a requirement when purchasing a home, the seller has had a brand-new well installed, making this property ready for its next chapter. Offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, this solid brick home features spacious rooms, a traditional ranch layout, and easy one-level living. It's the perfect opportunity for a buyer who wants a home with character and the ability to add their own updates and style. Situated just outside of town, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being only minutes from local schools, shopping, and everyday conveniences. Outside, the home features durable brick construction, a covered carport, and a nice yard ideal for gardening, relaxing evenings, or family gatherings. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking for a home with great bones, this one deserves a look. Now that the water situation is solved all it needs is its next owner!

19. 2025-09-02
    price $149,900 1082-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1082 chars)

    Turns Out Buyers Like Water So the Seller Installed a Brand-New Well! This charming 1954 brick ranch is back on the market and better than ever. Since buyers understandably feel that water is a requirement when purchasing a home, the seller has had a brand-new well installed, making this property ready for its next chapter. Offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, this solid brick home features spacious rooms, a traditional ranch layout, and easy one-level living. It's the perfect opportunity for a buyer who wants a home with character and the ability to add their own updates and style. Situated just outside of town, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being only minutes from local schools, shopping, and everyday conveniences. Outside, the home features durable brick construction, a covered carport, and a nice yard ideal for gardening, relaxing evenings, or family gatherings. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking for a home with great bones, this one deserves a look. Now that the water situation is solved all it needs is its next owner!

20. 2025-08-08
    price $165,000 1082-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1082 chars)

    Turns Out Buyers Like Water So the Seller Installed a Brand-New Well! This charming 1954 brick ranch is back on the market and better than ever. Since buyers understandably feel that water is a requirement when purchasing a home, the seller has had a brand-new well installed, making this property ready for its next chapter. Offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, this solid brick home features spacious rooms, a traditional ranch layout, and easy one-level living. It's the perfect opportunity for a buyer who wants a home with character and the ability to add their own updates and style. Situated just outside of town, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being only minutes from local schools, shopping, and everyday conveniences. Outside, the home features durable brick construction, a covered carport, and a nice yard ideal for gardening, relaxing evenings, or family gatherings. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking for a home with great bones, this one deserves a look. Now that the water situation is solved all it needs is its next owner!

21. 2025-06-18
    listed $175,000 Active 1082-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1082 chars)

    Turns Out Buyers Like Water So the Seller Installed a Brand-New Well! This charming 1954 brick ranch is back on the market and better than ever. Since buyers understandably feel that water is a requirement when purchasing a home, the seller has had a brand-new well installed, making this property ready for its next chapter. Offering 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, this solid brick home features spacious rooms, a traditional ranch layout, and easy one-level living. It's the perfect opportunity for a buyer who wants a home with character and the ability to add their own updates and style. Situated just outside of town, you'll enjoy a peaceful setting while still being only minutes from local schools, shopping, and everyday conveniences. Outside, the home features durable brick construction, a covered carport, and a nice yard ideal for gardening, relaxing evenings, or family gatherings. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or someone looking for a home with great bones, this one deserves a look. Now that the water situation is solved all it needs is its next owner!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $444 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,386 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$942/yr (+$78/mo · 212.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,258
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$444
• − Insurance: −$1,642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,221
• − Management: −$1,221
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$3,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$877
• After-tax cash flow: $209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Russell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103420
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $34,970
• Composite: 54.14/100
• National rank: #1384
• State rank: #44 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lebanon

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #3561

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing D- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,688

Population outlook (Russell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,787 people
• By 2030: 24,485 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 21,750 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 19,214 · -25.5%
• By 2075: 14,500 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 10,629 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Russell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.5) · D 16.1% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -54.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -67.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.5 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+58.9 2012: R+37.0 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.71%
• Current HPI: 184.8412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $169,000 SWVAR
• 2026-01-09 Relisted — SWVAR
• 2026-01-01 Delisted — SWVAR
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $149,900 SWVAR
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $165,000 SWVAR
• 2025-06-18 Listed $175,000 SWVAR

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $444 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.