4451 W Moncrief Rd · Jacksonville, FL 32209

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,102 sqft · Townhouse public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1962 1,742 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3/1 townhome updated in 2021 with NEW 2021 ROOF, LVP flooring, and fresh exterior paint. Needs some TLC to make it shine! Large front yard and private backyard. Close to everything--shopping, highways, and bus stop. Easy flip or great rental opportunity. May qualify for Conventional and FHA financing on case by case basis. Great opportunity at this price point! * * * One or more photos have been artificially enhanced (AI GENERATED) to show property potential. No appliances or window treatments included. Buyers and agents must sign a Hold Harmless Agreement prior to showing--see Docs Tab. Buyer to perform all due diligence and verify all information independently. Seller makes no re

Key facts

• Large front yard
• Private backyard
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• LVP FLOORING
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• LARGE FRONT YARD
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax information available (tax year 2025)
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking available
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Property is attached; Currently used as residential multi-family
• Exterior features: No private pool

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliances specified
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No built-in appliances listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 399 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,272/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 2921% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $85k implies a 305% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.64%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $12,068
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $39,725
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32209

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,272 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,134/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $729

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $477	-5% $453	+0% $429	+5% $405	+10% $381
Rent	-10% $329	-5% $379	+0% $429	+5% $479	+10% $530
Rate	-1.0pp $472	-0.5pp $451	base $429	+0.5pp $407	+1.0pp $385

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4543 Moncrief Rd W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	8d	1	0.09mi
4253 Moncrief Rd W Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$975	$1.16	24d	1	0.12mi
4177 Lorenzo Ct Unit 4 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$945	$1.12	3d	1	0.17mi
4440 Ken Knight Dr N Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	716	$650	$0.91	15d	1	0.18mi
4211 Moncrief Rd W Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$995	$1.18	24d	1	0.21mi
3997 Leonnie Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$950	$1.13	8d	1	0.24mi
4236 Homer Rd N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	888	$1,250	$1.41	12d	1	0.26mi
6601 Cleveland Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	896	$1,400	$1.56	24d	1	0.40mi
4910 Rhode Island Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,696	$1.30	24d	1	0.43mi
8509 Addison Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,675	$1.12	24d	1	0.50mi
8534 Addison Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1410	$1,995	$1.41	24d	1	0.54mi
8516 Bermuda Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,625	$1.09	21d	1	0.61mi
8645 Samona Dr W Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	1196	$1,250	$1.05	24d	1	0.66mi
4144 Katanga Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,095	$0.98	24d	1	0.66mi
4294 Katanga Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	24d	1	0.70mi
6731 W Virginia Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1188	$1,225	$1.03	22d	1	0.76mi
4895 Churchill Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	0.78mi
6188 Pettiford Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,850	$1.23	13d	1	0.85mi
5838 Abelia Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1135	$1,150	$1.01	24d	1	0.95mi
5814 Begonia Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,655	$1.10	24d	1	1.02mi
5821 Begonia Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,155	$0.94	5d	1	1.03mi
2818 Palmdale St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1484	$1,900	$1.28	24d	1	1.05mi
2904 Lippia Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	24d	1	1.06mi
3848 Soutel Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,541	$1.25	8d	1	1.06mi
6412 New Kings Rd Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	18d	1	1.09mi
6412 New Kings Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	18d	1	1.09mi
6114 Strawflower Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,200	$1.17	24d	1	1.13mi
4643 Williamsburg Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,496	$1.24	4d	1	1.14mi
6705 Gaspar Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,254	$1.12	18d	1	1.19mi
2534 Aubrey Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	759	$1,250	$1.65	24d	1	1.26mi
6718 Gaspar Cir W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,305	$1.22	24d	1	1.28mi
9206 Greenleaf Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	888	$1,400	$1.58	18d	1	1.31mi
4737 Portsmouth Ave Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1396	$1,148	$0.82	24d	1	1.33mi
4935 Portsmouth Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	894	$1,163	$1.30	11d	1	1.34mi
5565 Minosa Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1227	$1,400	$1.14	5d	1	1.34mi
3344 Soutel Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1142	$1,325	$1.16	24d	1	1.35mi
8367 Tubman Ct Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.5	1398	$1,790	$1.28	18d	1	1.36mi
9348 Culpeper Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	882	$1,195	$1.35	24d	1	1.39mi
5531 Agra Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	15d	1	1.41mi
2312 Palmdale St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	972	$1,231	$1.27	24d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    listed $85,000 Active
16. 1993-06-09
    soldstatus $21,000
17. 1993-06-09
    soldstatus $21,000
18. 1982-07-01
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,134 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,134 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,134
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,221
• − Management: −$1,221
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $4,028
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$967
• After-tax cash flow: $4,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,657
• Household income: $30,514
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2921.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.92%
• Current HPI: 189.5977
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Listed $85,000 realMLS
• 1993-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 1993-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 1982-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,134 · +25.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.