49116 Hibiscus · Morongo Valley, CA 92256

$314,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1963 0.41 ac lot $279/sqft · 8% below area Est $343k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute home with a large fenced in lot. This home is in need of some TLC and updating. It has a two car detached garage with workshop and separate bathroom that buyer should verify if permitted. Fannie Mae has limited the resale of this property for up to one year to buyers who intend on being owner occupants. Great potential. This home is sold as is and is a superb real estate value!

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1963

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Access via paved country road; Lot characterized as 0-1 unit/acre; Living area source: Assessor's data; Parcel number on file
• Financial info: Subject to special assessments
• HOA & community: Rural, foothills community

Exterior

• Parking: Two garage spaces; Side-entry two-door garage with workshop area; Two total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water (district); Water connected; Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: Single-family house; Single-story property; Front entry; Has a view; No accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Year built source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Covered patio; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Formal dining area and dining space in the kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms with shower and shower-in-tub options
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: One-story home with front entry; All bedrooms on the main level; Covered patio
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $314k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-293 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (36.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.1% in Morongo Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#505 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $41k; list at $314k implies a 669% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000 (36.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.99%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,786
• List price: $314,500
• Delta: -8.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
49126 Park Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,118 (-1%)	1mo	$335,000	$300	85
11051 Pinon Ave	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,238 (+10%)	11mo	$485,000	$392	67
49167 Hibiscus Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,035 (-8%)	18mo	$330,000	$319	59
49261 Buena Vista Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-8%)	19mo	$335,000	$322	58
49432 Canyon House Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,136 (+1%)	15mo	$338,000	$298	44
49247 Matzene Dr	0.53mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,227 (+9%)	14mo	$240,000	$196	44
49323 Matzene Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,231 (+9%)	9mo	$340,000	$276	42
49290 Park Ave	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+15%)	23mo	$325,000	$251	41
11010 Knobb Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	982 (-13%)	15mo	$232,000	$236	40
49466 Mojave Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (+13%)	11mo	$330,000	$259	40
49535 Park Ave	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,286 (+14%)	17mo	$300,000	$233	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $64,671
• Equity at exit: $189,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $206,643
• Equity at exit: $337,911

Cash invested: $88,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92256

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,649
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,113/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,371

Max offer price $262,722

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,625
• Closing costs: $9,435
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11010 Knobb Ave Morongo Valley, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	22d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,500 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,500 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,500 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,500 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,500 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,500 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $314,500 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $314,500 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $314,500 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $314,500 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $314,500 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $314,500 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $314,500 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $314,500 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    listed $314,500 Active 929-char remark
16. 2026-05-15
    historical $314,500 929-char remark
17. 2011-09-23
    historical 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Cute home with a large fenced in lot. This home is in need of some TLC and updating. It has a two car detached garage with workshop and separate bathroom that buyer should verify if permitted. Fannie Mae has limited the resale of this property for up to one year to buyers who intend on being owner occupants. Great potential. This home is sold as is and is a superb real estate value!

18. 2011-09-23
    soldstatus $40,900 Closed 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Cute home with a large fenced in lot. This home is in need of some TLC and updating. It has a two car detached garage with workshop and separate bathroom that buyer should verify if permitted. Fannie Mae has limited the resale of this property for up to one year to buyers who intend on being owner occupants. Great potential. This home is sold as is and is a superb real estate value!

19. 2011-09-13
    historical Contingent 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Cute home with a large fenced in lot. This home is in need of some TLC and updating. It has a two car detached garage with workshop and separate bathroom that buyer should verify if permitted. Fannie Mae has limited the resale of this property for up to one year to buyers who intend on being owner occupants. Great potential. This home is sold as is and is a superb real estate value!

20. 2011-09-01
    listed $40,900 Active 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Cute home with a large fenced in lot. This home is in need of some TLC and updating. It has a two car detached garage with workshop and separate bathroom that buyer should verify if permitted. Fannie Mae has limited the resale of this property for up to one year to buyers who intend on being owner occupants. Great potential. This home is sold as is and is a superb real estate value!

21. 2011-07-21
    historical
22. 2011-04-29
    listed $55,900
23. 2004-12-02
    soldstatus $150,000
24. 1978-07-01
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,113 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,390 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,277/yr (+$106/mo · 114.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥102°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,617
• − Property taxes: −$1,113
• − Insurance: −$1,572
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$9,149
• Taxable loss: −$9,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,230
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Morongo Valley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #17106

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living C- Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morongo Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,907

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.61%
• Current HPI: 526.1914
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+798.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $314,500 CRMLS
• 2026-05-15 Coming Soon $314,500 CRMLS
• 2011-09-23 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2011-09-23 Sold (MLS) $40,900 GPSMLS
• 2011-09-13 Contingent — GPSMLS
• 2011-09-01 Listed $40,900 GPSMLS
• 2011-07-21 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2011-04-29 Listed $55,900 CRMLS
• 2004-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 1978-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,113 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.