27631 W Lake Shore Dr · Fox Lake, IL 60081

$529,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,734 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1950 0.39 ac lot Est $366k · 45% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * ATTENTION BUILDERS AND REMODELERS! * * * READY TO COMPLETE A LAKEFRONT HOME ON CHAIN O'LAKES!!! PLANS AND PERMIT NEED TO BE TRANSFERRED TO THE NEW OWNER. Possible 4 bed/3 bath , open floor plan, height ceilings. The pier is included. Enjoy panoramic lake views from every room of the house. A large deck by the pier built in 2025. Free (for residents) boat launch is just around the corner. Chain O'Lakes is right outside your door. Wonderful location, amazing sunsets, eagles & wildlife. Enjoy swimming, boating, kayaking, fishing, and all of the attractions, restaurants, and bars that the Chain O'Lakes has to offer. Plat of Survey is attached. * * * BUILDING IS BEING SOLD &q

Key facts

• Large deck
• Open floor plan
• Boat launch

Tags

• LAKEFRONT HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PANORAMIC LAKE VIEWS
• LARGE DECK
• BOAT LAUNCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is in an unincorporated area (Antioch township); Directions provided for access
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (owned) with 2 garage spaces and 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Two-story layout; Fee simple ownership; School bus service available
• Construction: Built before 1978; Other construction materials listed
• Exterior features: Waterfront property

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (including master and three additional bedrooms); Master bedroom located on the second floor; Additional bedrooms located on the main and second floors
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Full unfinished basement with walk-out access
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $529k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $529k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 6.0% in Fox Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#247 in IL, #4,462 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety F.
• Grant Chsd 124 (suburban): math 23% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #296 of 620 in IL (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Grant Community High School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #247 of 693 statewide, top 36%, 1,837 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $405k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $529,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.09%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $365,874
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27673 W Lake Shore Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,872 (+8%)	12mo	$810,000	$433	66
38433 N 5th Ave	0.40mi	4/2.5	1,848 (+7%)	7mo	$202,000	$109	59
38332 N 8th St	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,750 (+1%)	22mo	$370,000	$211	49
27753 W Lake Shore Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-14%)	15mo	$317,000	$211	49
27884 W Lake Shore Dr	0.27mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,500 (-14%)	13mo	$275,100	$183	47
38480 N 3rd Ave N	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,617 (-7%)	17mo	$309,000	$191	46
27509 W Ashland Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-11%)	20mo	$365,000	$237	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-14,102
• Equity at exit: $78,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $80,465
• Equity at exit: $45,738

Cash invested: $148,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60081

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,243 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,774
• Tax from tax record: −$816 /mo · $9,789/yr
• Insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,311
• Net cashflow: $1,122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,823

Max offer price $529,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,421	-5% $1,271	+0% $1,122	+5% $972	+10% $822
Rent	-10% $628	-5% $875	+0% $1,122	+5% $1,368	+10% $1,615
Rate	-1.0pp $1,388	-0.5pp $1,256	base $1,122	+0.5pp $984	+1.0pp $845

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,250
• Closing costs: $15,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28 Glen Ave Fox Lake, IL	3.0	1.0	1212	$2,300	$1.90	8d	1	1.35mi
28977 Westlane Ave Unit 1514521P Spring Grove, IL	4.0	2.0	1991	$9,576	$4.81	23d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $529,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 695-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $529,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,789 · $816/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,899 · $908/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,109/yr (+$92/mo · 11.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $74,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,632
• − Property taxes: −$9,789
• − Insurance: −$2,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,993
• − Management: −$5,993
• − Depreciation: −$15,389
• Taxable income: $5,472
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,313
• After-tax cash flow: $12,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grant Chsd 124
• NCES district ID: 1717340
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,450
• Composite: 22.95/100
• National rank: #7989
• State rank: #296 of 620 in IL

Livability — Fox Lake

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #247
• US rank: #4462

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,846
• Population (ZIP): 9,117

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 700,217 people
• By 2030: 693,290 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 673,588 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 643,556 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 562,792 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 457,715 · -34.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.8) · D 59.7% · R 38.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: 19.6pp · 2024: 20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.8 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.40%
• Current HPI: 239.9614
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+655.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $529,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $405,000 Public Records
• 1986-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $9,789 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.