423 Exchange St · Houston, TX 77020

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,070 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1955 5,458 sqft lot $154/sqft · at area comps Est $170k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming single-story home presenting a great location and opportunity for buyers and investors looking to customize or add value. This three-bedroom one bath home has a spacious carport and large backyard for entertaining or other outdoor ideas. Conveniently located in an established neighborhood with easy access to local amenities. Located just minutes away from downtown and easy access to major highway: 610, I-10 and 59. Property is being sold AS-IS Condition offers great opportunity.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Spacious carport
• 5,458 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS CARPORT
• LARGE BACKYARD
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES
• MINUTES AWAY FROM DOWNTOWN
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with additional parking (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1955; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 11x12, 12x12, 11x12)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Seller disclosure available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Scroggins El (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 335 students, 98% FRL); Mcreynolds Middle (math 10% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,602 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 398 students, 98% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.85%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,863
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -2.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
439 Terminal St	0.06mi	3/2.0	984 (-8%)	4mo	$130,000	$132	77
426 Meters St	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,114 (+4%)	16mo	$220,000	$197	76
434 Exchange St	0.04mi	3/1.0	944 (-12%)	14mo	$147,000	$156	67
6921 Hershe St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-4%)	5mo	$108,000	$105	60
7316 Victoria St	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+12%)	1mo	$225,000	$188	58
6907 Waxahachie St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,128 (+5%)	1mo	$175,000	$155	54
6723 Corpus Christi	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+1%)	13mo	$180,000	$167	52
7216 Brownwood St	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-1%)	19mo	$123,500	$117	51
7402 Amarillo St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	952 (-11%)	1mo	$130,000	$137	48
7224 Greenville St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	992 (-7%)	16mo	$99,500	$100	46
7438 Market St	0.64mi	2/0.5 (-1)	1,200 (+12%)	9mo	$275,000	$229	35
7023 Bonham St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-12%)	12mo	$95,000	$101	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $119,963
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.31×
• Total profit: $337,828
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,108 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,839/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $522	-5% $475	+0% $428	+5% $382	+10% $335
Rent	-10% $262	-5% $345	+0% $428	+5% $512	+10% $595
Rate	-1.0pp $511	-0.5pp $470	base $428	+0.5pp $386	+1.0pp $342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6715 Victoria St Unit B Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	790	$1,150	$1.46	45d	1	0.77mi
1023 Hahlo St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	6d	1	1.38mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	45d	1	1.47mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,376	$3.10	0d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-04-25
    listed $165,000 Active 492-char remark
14. 2026-03-25
    historical
15. 2026-03-04
    price $165,000
16. 2026-02-09
    listed $179,000 Active
17. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,839 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$180/yr (+$15/mo · 6.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,839
• − Insurance: −$1,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,024
• − Management: −$2,024
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $2,746
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$659
• After-tax cash flow: $4,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,839 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.