Boston Plan · Palmetto, FL 34221

$366,590

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,217 sqft · SingleFamily · 152 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious two-story home boasts five bedrooms with room to spare. The first floor contains a breezy living room, dining room and kitchen in an open design. The spacious owner's suite is tucked away on the second floor, along with all the secondary bedrooms, just off the versatile loft space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 152 days

🏗️ New construction. The $366,590 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $480,148.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $367k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-904 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1580 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 120d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,141/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($323k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,053 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.47%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $480,148
• List price: $366,590
• Delta: -23.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11220 Fieldstone Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (+2%)	10mo	$381,000	$169	49
12747 Dockyard Trl	0.72mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,394 (+8%)	0mo	$513,499	$214	46
11548 69th Pl E	0.60mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+11%)	3mo	$452,490	$184	44
12825 Dockyard Trl	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,394 (+8%)	2mo	$471,502	$197	44
12727 Dockyard Trl	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,394 (+8%)	2mo	$493,824	$206	44
12763 Dockyard Trl	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,394 (+8%)	6mo	$453,079	$189	42
7144 119th Ct E	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,480 (+12%)	8mo	$384,340	$155	35
6917 E 116th Ct	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+11%)	12mo	$472,290	$193	32
6838 E 115th St	0.70mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+11%)	15mo	$429,500	$175	30
6841 E 115th St	0.70mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+11%)	16mo	$472,900	$193	29
6912 E 115th St	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+11%)	20mo	$474,900	$194	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-144,473
• Equity at exit: $71,592

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-235,123
• Equity at exit: $41,514

Cash invested: $134,441 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 79 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 47.4 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $365,200 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 26 d
• This list price: 52% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +30.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1580
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,518
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$600 /mo · $7,202/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $-904

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,284

Max offer price $349,391

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-572	-5% $-738	+0% $-904	+5% $-1,070	+10% $-1,235
Rent	-10% $-1,152	-5% $-1,028	+0% $-904	+5% $-780	+10% $-656
Rate	-1.0pp $-662	-0.5pp $-782	base $-904	+0.5pp $-1,028	+1.0pp $-1,155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $120,037
• Closing costs: $14,404
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6431 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,695	$1.19	119d	1	0.81mi
6316 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,800	$1.23	119d	1	0.87mi
6305 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,749	$1.21	119d	1	0.90mi
6321 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	5.0	3.5	2470	$3,000	$1.21	6d	1	0.90mi
6321 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	5.0	3.5	2505	$3,000	$1.20	8d	1	0.90mi
6219 Springmont Loop Palmetto, FL	5.0	3.5	2574	$3,023	$1.17	80d	1	1.22mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveVirtual tour available
• Financial info: List price listed (price available)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Boston plan (new construction plan)Single-family plan model
• Construction: New construction (Plan)Built 2026 (model year referenced)
• Exterior features: Located at 12515 Oak Pick Ter, Palmetto FL 34221Living area approximately 2217

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes a kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan model)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not specified)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $366,590 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $366,590 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $366,590 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $366,590 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $366,590 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $366,590 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   pricedays on market $366,590 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $360,090 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $360,090 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $360,090 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $360,090 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $360,090 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $359,590 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $359,590 Active 134 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $359,590 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $359,590 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $359,090 Active 129 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    price $359,090 Active 128 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $358,590 Active 128 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $358,590 Active 127 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $358,590 Active 126 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $358,590 Active 125 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $358,590 Active 124 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $358,590 Active 123 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $358,590 Active 122 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    pricedays on market $358,590 Active 121 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $358,090 Active 120 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $358,090 Active 119 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $358,090 Active 118 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $358,090 Active 117 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $358,090 Active 116 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $358,090 Active 115 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $358,090 Active 114 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $358,090 Active 113 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $358,090 Active 112 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $358,090 Active 111 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $358,090 Active 110 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $358,090 Active 109 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    pricedays on market $358,090 Active 108 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $357,590 Active 107 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $357,590 Active 106 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $357,590 Active 105 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $357,590 Active 104 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    pricedays on market $357,590 Active 103 DOM
45. 2026-08-01
    price $356,390 Active 99 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    pricedays on market $356,290 Active 99 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    pricedays on market $356,190 Active 97 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $354,190 Active 96 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $354,190 Active 92 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $354,190 Active 91 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,896
• − Property taxes: −$7,202
• − Insurance: −$3,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,015
• − Management: −$3,015
• − Depreciation: −$13,968
• Taxable loss: −$19,608
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,706
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This spacious two-story home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 56,208
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveVirtual tour available
• Financial info: List price listed (price available)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Boston plan (new construction plan)Single-family plan model
• Construction: New construction (Plan)Built 2026 (model year referenced)
• Exterior features: Located at 12515 Oak Pick Ter, Palmetto FL 34221Living area approximately 2217

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes a kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan model)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not specified)