Boston Plan · Ruskin, FL 34221

$333,940

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,217 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious two-story home boasts five bedrooms with room to spare. The first floor contains a breezy living room, dining room and kitchen in an open design. The spacious owner's suite is tucked away on the second floor, along with all the secondary bedrooms, just off the versatile loft space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 59 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 12515 Oak Pick Ter, Palmetto FL 34221; Listing status: Active; Last modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Boston); New construction — inventory type: Plan
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,217 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Plan named Boston (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $333,940 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $419,013.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $334k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-478 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $306k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $306k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,061/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $306,060 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.89%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $419,013
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11220 Fieldstone Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (+2%)	6mo	$381,000	$169	52
11548 69th Pl E	0.60mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+11%)	0mo	$452,490	$184	47
12763 Dockyard Trl	0.71mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,394 (+8%)	3mo	$453,079	$189	44
7144 119th Ct E	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,480 (+12%)	5mo	$384,340	$155	37
6917 E 116th Ct	0.73mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+11%)	9mo	$472,290	$193	34
6838 E 115th St	0.70mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+11%)	12mo	$429,500	$175	33
6841 E 115th St	0.70mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+11%)	13mo	$472,900	$193	32
6912 E 115th St	0.74mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (+11%)	17mo	$474,900	$194	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-107,255
• Equity at exit: $62,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-167,059
• Equity at exit: $36,229

Cash invested: $117,324 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,061 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$524 /mo · $6,285/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$643
• Net cashflow: $-478

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,665

Max offer price $349,870

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-188	-5% $-333	+0% $-478	+5% $-623	+10% $-767
Rent	-10% $-720	-5% $-599	+0% $-478	+5% $-357	+10% $-236
Rate	-1.0pp $-267	-0.5pp $-371	base $-478	+0.5pp $-586	+1.0pp $-697

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,753
• Closing costs: $12,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6431 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,695	$1.19	25d	1	0.81mi
6316 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,800	$1.23	25d	1	0.87mi
6305 Milestone Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2271	$2,749	$1.21	25d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $333,940 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $333,940 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $333,940 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $333,940 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $333,940 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $333,940 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $332,940 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $332,840 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $332,740 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $332,740 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $329,640 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,240 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $329,240 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $351,040 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $351,040 Active 38 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,727
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,471
• − Property taxes: −$6,285
• − Insurance: −$2,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,938
• − Management: −$2,938
• − Depreciation: −$12,189
• Taxable loss: −$13,190
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,166
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This spacious two-story home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B