1415 Curlew Ln · Temple, TX 76502

$222,250

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,967 sqft lot Garage $145/sqft · 19% below area Est $275k · 19% under $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well maintained, three bedrooms, two bathrooms, popular split floor plan, open concept. All the bells and whistles. Wood look tile in all the high traffic areas, carpet in bedrooms only. Each bedroom has a ceiling fan on a separate switch. Finished out garage, post tension concrete slab. Covered porch with room for outdoor furniture. Neutral colors.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Wood look tile
• Ceiling fan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT
• WOOD LOOK TILE
• CEILING FAN
• FINISHED OUT GARAGE
• COVERED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-442 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (35.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (35.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#122 in TX, #3,814 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D+.
• Temple ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #590 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 1312 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,245 (35.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.51%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,647
• List price: $222,250
• Delta: -19.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3512 Oglala Trl	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,659 (+8%)	0mo	$259,000	$156	79
3722 Oglala Trl	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,683 (+10%)	2mo	$304,500	$181	70
1514 Black Kettle Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-14%)	2mo	$204,700	$155	70
1423 Flatland Trl	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-14%)	0mo	$265,000	$201	68
3816 Oglala Trl	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-14%)	3mo	$272,000	$207	65
2024 Filmore Cv	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,517 (-1%)	2mo	$236,900	$156	64
3002 Clevelander Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (+5%)	2mo	$246,000	$153	63
2705 Clarkson Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,501 (-2%)	1mo	$229,690	$153	61
705 Eaton Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,612 (+5%)	1mo	$246,635	$153	52
2714 Clarkson Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,612 (+5%)	1mo	$245,530	$152	52
2706 Clarkson Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-8%)	2mo	$218,970	$155	52
1912 Meridian Loop	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-12%)	2mo	$226,900	$168	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-69,140
• Equity at exit: $33,138

10-year hold

• IRR: -77.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.86×
• Total profit: $-115,708
• Equity at exit: $19,216

Cash invested: $62,230 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 68 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.2 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $263,050 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +9.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76502

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 1312
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,166
• Tax from tax record: −$571 /mo · $6,852/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-442

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,341

Max offer price $144,245

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-316	-5% $-379	+0% $-442	+5% $-504	+10% $-567
Rent	-10% $-582	-5% $-512	+0% $-442	+5% $-371	+10% $-301
Rate	-1.0pp $-330	-0.5pp $-385	base $-442	+0.5pp $-499	+1.0pp $-558

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,562
• Closing costs: $6,668
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1423 Curlew Ln Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,875	$1.17	93d	1	0.05mi
1423 Fiddle Wood Way Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1878	$1,950	$1.04	93d	1	0.10mi
1526 Black Kettle Trl Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,750	$1.24	93d	1	0.14mi
1503 Sideoats Ln Temple, TX	4.0	3.0	1830	$1,795	$0.98	72d	1	0.15mi
1614 Curlew Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,795	$1.17	63d	1	0.16mi
1607 Sideoats Ln Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,899	$1.24	93d	1	0.19mi
1619 Sideoats Ln Temple, TX	2.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	63d	1	0.22mi
3703 McCleland Creek Trl Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1621	$4,950	$3.05	72d	1	0.24mi
3703 McCleland Creek Trl Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1621	$4,950	$3.05	93d	1	0.24mi
1907 Delano Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,700	$1.34	70d	1	0.44mi
1622 Lummus Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.5	1518	$1,600	$1.05	93d	1	0.44mi
1551 Case Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,600	$1.22	93d	1	0.45mi
1909 Euclid Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$1,600	$0.99	72d	1	0.48mi
1515 Case Rd Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,600	$1.22	72d	1	0.49mi
2152 Meridian Loop Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,700	$1.25	63d	1	0.57mi
1418 Eaton Dr Temple, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1529	$1,675	$1.10	63d	13	0.63mi
2072 Dade Loop Unit DADE2072 Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,535	$1.22	63d	1	0.71mi
2509 Elk Creek St Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1740	$1,825	$1.05	72d	1	0.78mi
2420 Alterman Dr Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,325	$0.99	72d	1	0.81mi
4926 Bellfalls Ct Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$3,900	$2.95	93d	1	0.83mi
2412 Alterman Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,299	$0.97	72d	1	0.84mi
2408 Alterman Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1351	$1,600	$1.18	93d	1	0.85mi
2408 Alterman Dr Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1351	$1,575	$1.17	93d	1	0.85mi
2513 Rollett Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,800	$1.41	72d	1	0.85mi
2404 Alterman Dr Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,395	$1.07	93d	1	0.86mi
2320 Duntov Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,350	$1.03	70d	1	0.90mi
2316 Duntov Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,523	$1.14	93d	1	0.91mi
2306 Duntov Dr Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,395	$1.07	63d	1	0.92mi
2311 Duntov Dr Unit a Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,400	$0.95	93d	1	0.92mi
2306 Duntov Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,395	$1.07	70d	1	0.93mi
2307 Duntov Dr Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,350	$1.03	63d	1	0.94mi
1110 Zora Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,495	$1.17	93d	1	0.95mi
1114 Zora Dr Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,495	$1.17	93d	1	0.95mi
1018 Zora Dr Unit b Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,295	$0.99	93d	1	0.96mi
911 Ferrara Cir Unit A Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,350	$1.11	63d	1	1.07mi
507 Marlandwood Rd Temple, TX	2.0	2.0	1267	$1,699	$1.34	93d	1	1.10mi
3506 S 5th St Temple, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1054	$1,885	$1.79	63d	23	1.11mi
108 McFaddan Ln Temple, TX	4.0	2.0	1799	$1,795	$1.00	93d	1	1.17mi
4403 Brutus Ln Unit B Temple, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,400	$1.06	72d	1	1.21mi
623 Azalea Dr Temple, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1114	$1,899	$1.70	63d	13	1.21mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of the Prairie Ridge homeowners associationHOA fee $240 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-storyFaces northSlab foundation
• Construction: Built by Jerry Wright (year built per assessor)Fiber cement and masonry exteriorComposition / shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patioPorchCovered patio and porchBack yard privacy fenceAutomatic sprinklers with rain sensorOutside city limitsCity street frontageAsphalt road surfaceHeated spa

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveDisposalKitchen islandGranite countersPantryBreakfast barEat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Living room on main level
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: AtticCeiling fansCrown moldingEat-in kitchenGarden tub / Roman tubPantryPull-down attic stairsRecessed lightingSeparate showerWalk-in closetsWindow treatmentsBreakfast barGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen / dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry roomElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-07-08
   statusdays on market $222,250 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $222,250 Active Under Contract 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $222,250 Active Under Contract 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $222,250 Active Under Contract 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $222,250 Active Under Contract 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $222,250 Active Under Contract 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $222,250 Active Under Contract 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $222,250 Active Under Contract 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $222,250 Active Under Contract 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $222,250 Active Under Contract 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $222,250 Active Under Contract 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $222,250 Active Under Contract 49 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $222,250 Active Under Contract 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $222,250 Active Under Contract 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    historical Active Under Contract 352-char remark
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $222,250 Active 352-char remark
17. 2023-05-13
    status Pending
18. 2023-05-09
    status Active
19. 2023-04-01
    status Pending
20. 2023-03-28
    status Active
21. 2023-03-28
    price $261,000
22. 2022-08-27
    status Pending
23. 2022-08-26
    listed $260,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,852 · $571/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,852 · $571/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,449
• − Property taxes: −$6,852
• − Insurance: −$1,111
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$6,465
• Taxable loss: −$9,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,198
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,665–$22,995 screening

This well-maintained single-family home features a split floor plan, modern finishes, and a good condition score. It is ready for a new owner or tenant with minor touch-ups and maintenance items.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans — Modernizes the space and improves energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Travis Science Academy F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temple ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842330
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,120
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7123
• State rank: #590 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Temple

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #122
• US rank: #3814

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Temple, TX
• County: Bell County · 371,114 people
• City population: 96,587
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,669
• Household income: $82,088
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.80%
• Current HPI: 166.927
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of the Prairie Ridge homeowners associationHOA fee $240 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-storyFaces northSlab foundation
• Construction: Built by Jerry Wright (year built per assessor)Fiber cement and masonry exteriorComposition / shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patioPorchCovered patio and porchBack yard privacy fenceAutomatic sprinklers with rain sensorOutside city limitsCity street frontageAsphalt road surfaceHeated spa

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveDisposalKitchen islandGranite countersPantryBreakfast barEat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Living room on main level
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: AtticCeiling fansCrown moldingEat-in kitchenGarden tub / Roman tubPantryPull-down attic stairsRecessed lightingSeparate showerWalk-in closetsWindow treatmentsBreakfast barGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen / dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry roomElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-14.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $222,250 CTXMLS
• 2023-05-13 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2023-05-09 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2023-04-01 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2023-03-28 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2023-03-28 Price Changed $261,000 CTXMLS
• 2022-08-27 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2022-08-26 Listed $260,000 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+93.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,852 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.