118 Happy Trail Ct · New Fairview, TX 76078

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured public records · 126 Days on market

Built 2000 1.00 ac lot $74/sqft · 58% below area ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the freedom of true country living on this 1-acre property, offering wide-open space, privacy, and the opportunity to make it your own. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features an open-concept floor plan, creating a comfortable and functional layout for everyday living, family gatherings, or relaxed country evenings. The expansive acreage provides plenty of room for animals, gardening, outdoor projects, or future improvements, all while enjoying peaceful rural surroundings with no close neighbors. Motivated seller — all offers welcome. Property is being sold as-is, presenting an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking flexibility, value, and potential. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, a homestead-style setup, or an investment opportunity, this property offers space, simplicity, and country charm.

Key facts

• Expansive acreage
• No close neighbors
• 1 acre property

Tags

• 1 ACRE PROPERTY
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• EXPANSIVE ACREAGE
• PEACEFUL RURAL SURROUNDINGS
• NO CLOSE NEIGHBORS
• HOMESTEAD STYLE SETUP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $875 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Decatur ISD (town): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #323 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 263 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (44%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.51%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $238,755
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -58.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
627 Coyote Trl	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	19mo	$230,000	$158	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $110,249
• Equity at exit: $90,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.03×
• Total profit: $280,912
• Equity at exit: $194,278

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76078

• Home prices YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,008 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,736/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $875

Break-even live

Break-even rent $900

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $932	-5% $904	+0% $875	+5% $847	+10% $819
Rent	-10% $717	-5% $796	+0% $875	+5% $955	+10% $1,034
Rate	-1.0pp $926	-0.5pp $901	base $875	+0.5pp $849	+1.0pp $823

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-16
   historical Active Option Contract 848-char remark

   Show marketing remark (848 chars)

   Experience the freedom of true country living on this 1-acre property, offering wide-open space, privacy, and the opportunity to make it your own. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features an open-concept floor plan, creating a comfortable and functional layout for everyday living, family gatherings, or relaxed country evenings. The expansive acreage provides plenty of room for animals, gardening, outdoor projects, or future improvements, all while enjoying peaceful rural surroundings with no close neighbors. Motivated seller — all offers welcome. Property is being sold as-is, presenting an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking flexibility, value, and potential. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, a homestead-style setup, or an investment opportunity, this property offers space, simplicity, and country charm.

2. 2026-05-16
   status Active 848-char remark

   Show marketing remark (848 chars)

   Experience the freedom of true country living on this 1-acre property, offering wide-open space, privacy, and the opportunity to make it your own. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features an open-concept floor plan, creating a comfortable and functional layout for everyday living, family gatherings, or relaxed country evenings. The expansive acreage provides plenty of room for animals, gardening, outdoor projects, or future improvements, all while enjoying peaceful rural surroundings with no close neighbors. Motivated seller — all offers welcome. Property is being sold as-is, presenting an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking flexibility, value, and potential. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, a homestead-style setup, or an investment opportunity, this property offers space, simplicity, and country charm.

3. 2026-04-28
   price $100,000 848-char remark

   Show marketing remark (848 chars)

   Experience the freedom of true country living on this 1-acre property, offering wide-open space, privacy, and the opportunity to make it your own. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features an open-concept floor plan, creating a comfortable and functional layout for everyday living, family gatherings, or relaxed country evenings. The expansive acreage provides plenty of room for animals, gardening, outdoor projects, or future improvements, all while enjoying peaceful rural surroundings with no close neighbors. Motivated seller — all offers welcome. Property is being sold as-is, presenting an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking flexibility, value, and potential. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, a homestead-style setup, or an investment opportunity, this property offers space, simplicity, and country charm.

4. 2026-04-01
   price $140,000 848-char remark

   Show marketing remark (848 chars)

   Experience the freedom of true country living on this 1-acre property, offering wide-open space, privacy, and the opportunity to make it your own. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features an open-concept floor plan, creating a comfortable and functional layout for everyday living, family gatherings, or relaxed country evenings. The expansive acreage provides plenty of room for animals, gardening, outdoor projects, or future improvements, all while enjoying peaceful rural surroundings with no close neighbors. Motivated seller — all offers welcome. Property is being sold as-is, presenting an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking flexibility, value, and potential. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, a homestead-style setup, or an investment opportunity, this property offers space, simplicity, and country charm.

5. 2026-01-12
   listed $180,000 Active 848-char remark

   Show marketing remark (848 chars)

   Experience the freedom of true country living on this 1-acre property, offering wide-open space, privacy, and the opportunity to make it your own. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features an open-concept floor plan, creating a comfortable and functional layout for everyday living, family gatherings, or relaxed country evenings. The expansive acreage provides plenty of room for animals, gardening, outdoor projects, or future improvements, all while enjoying peaceful rural surroundings with no close neighbors. Motivated seller — all offers welcome. Property is being sold as-is, presenting an excellent opportunity for buyers seeking flexibility, value, and potential. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, a homestead-style setup, or an investment opportunity, this property offers space, simplicity, and country charm.

6. 2017-01-09
   soldstatus
7. 1999-07-14
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,736 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,736
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,927
• − Management: −$1,927
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $9,490
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,277
• After-tax cash flow: $8,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816500
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,504
• Composite: 36.33/100
• National rank: #4691
• State rank: #323 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,828
• Household income: $99,866
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.94%
• Current HPI: 325.22
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-44.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-16 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $140,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2017-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,736 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.