413 Fourth St · Magnolia, DE 19946

$139,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 91 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition $89/sqft · 25% above area Est $112k · 25% over ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 413 Fourth Street in the community of High Point Park. This home features a open floor plan with a modern look and feel. Only five years old, this home needs nothing and is ready to go for the new owners. With a large kitchen with abundant cabinet and counter space, the gourmet in the family will love this space. The dining area has plenty of space for family and friends on those special occasions. With four bedrooms and two full baths, this is one of the largest homes in the community. There is plenty of space for everyone here. Come see it today!

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2020

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 2.3% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#51 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, employment A-, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lake Forest School District (rural): math 26% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #13 of 26 in DE (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,201 units permitted in Kent County in 2024 (116 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kent County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.27%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,669
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: 25.28%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Barefoot Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,574 (+0%)	1mo	$260,000	$165	73
395 Barefoot Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-4%)	1mo	$259,000	$171	72
307 Jean Bradley Cir #314	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (-13%)	4mo	$137,500	$101	64
357 Barefoot Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (+12%)	1mo	$257,000	$147	59
105 Jury Dr #5	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+14%)	3mo	$125,000	$70	58
74 Wanchese Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (+4%)	2mo	$409,990	$252	57
155 E Poplar St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (+8%)	2mo	$275,000	$162	57
117 Wanchese Dr	0.62mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,627 (+4%)	1mo	$399,990	$246	55
30 Wanchese Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,627 (+4%)	8mo	$429,900	$264	52
30 Manteo Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (+13%)	8mo	$439,900	$247	36
273 Buxton Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (+13%)	9mo	$444,900	$250	32
245 Buxton Cir	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (+13%)	10mo	$489,900	$276	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $48,621
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $134,248
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19946

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $1,119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Willow Dr Frederica, DE	3.0–4.0	2.0	1312	$1,849	$1.41	43d	1	0.05mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-03-20
    listed $139,900 Active 565-char remark

    Show marketing remark (565 chars)

    Welcome to 413 Fourth Street in the community of High Point Park. This home features a open floor plan with a modern look and feel. Only five years old, this home needs nothing and is ready to go for the new owners. With a large kitchen with abundant cabinet and counter space, the gourmet in the family will love this space. The dining area has plenty of space for family and friends on those special occasions. With four bedrooms and two full baths, this is one of the largest homes in the community. There is plenty of space for everyone here. Come see it today!

19. 2025-12-15
    historical
20. 2025-11-18
    price $139,900
21. 2025-09-29
    listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,534
• − Management: −$2,534
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $11,906
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,857
• After-tax cash flow: $10,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and ample space. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior and interior updates to enhance its curb appeal and add value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both paint interior walls — enhances interior appearance and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint exterior — improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — enhances interior appearance and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Forest School District
• NCES district ID: 1000790
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $52,034
• Composite: 30.47/100
• National rank: #6225
• State rank: #13 of 26 in DE

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #13984

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kent County · 82,184 people
• Metro: Dover, DE
• Population (ZIP): 5,603
• Household income: $80,459
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 128.0

Population outlook (Kent County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,477 people
• By 2030: 204,351 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 222,135 · +14.2%
• By 2050: 236,483 · +21.6%
• By 2075: 266,327 · +36.9%
• By 2100: 275,335 · +41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 19% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Kent

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 48.2% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 9.8pp · 2024: 2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.0 2020: D+4.1 2016: R+4.9 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.16%
• Current HPI: 189.0713
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dover, DE
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS