29 Matthews Dr · Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11972

$1,100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,544 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2020 0.45 ac lot Est $804k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 29 Mathews Drive, Remsenburg — where the ease of one-level living meets modern comfort and style. This beautifully renovated home features an open-concept floor plan with soaring cathedral ceilings and wood floors throughout, creating a bright and inviting living space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a private bath, while two additional guest bedrooms share a full bath. A full basement provides endless possibilities for additional living space, recreation, storage, or a home gym. Outside, a legal detached office or private retreat offers the flexibility today's lifestyle demands. Situated on approximately half an acre, the pro

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Cathedral ceilings
• Full basement

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• WOOD FLOORS
• FULL BASEMENT
• DETACHED OFFICE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; No carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected (provided by PSEG); Water connected; Sewer connected (cesspool); Trash collection (private); Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Actual property condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Full unfinished basement; Partial attic
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Open kitchen; Electric oven; Oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Open kitchen; Primary bathroom; Master suite on main level; Washer/dryer hookups
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer included; Dryer hookup (electric); Dryer included; Laundry located in basement; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.10M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($150k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $1.10M).
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 7.2% in Remsenburg-Speonk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Remsenburg-Speonk Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 122 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 10% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $308k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$88k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $835k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,100,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.81%
• DSCR: 3.17
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $804,424
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4 Elia Dr	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-7%)	8mo	$750,000	$521	63
22 Nidzyn Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+11%)	12mo	$805,000	$470	62
15 Crest Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+4%)	7mo	$613,500	$383	62
17 Heather Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,650 (+7%)	1mo	$1,350,000	$818	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $900,250
• Equity at exit: $462,899

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.90×
• Total profit: $2,124,212
• Equity at exit: $689,646

Cash invested: $308,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11972

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $24,069 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,769
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,124/yr
• Insurance: −$458
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,054
• Net cashflow: $12,527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,212

Max offer price $1,100,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $275,000
• Closing costs: $33,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
152 Old Country Rd Westhampton, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	25d	1	0.98mi
70 Jagger Ln Westhampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1850	$22,500	$12.16	1d	1	1.05mi
25 N Quarter Rd Westhampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2000	$30,000	$15.00	17d	1	1.40mi
70 Tanners Neck Ln Westhampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2100	$20,000	$9.52	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,100,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,100,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,100,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,100,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,100,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,100,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $1,100,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,124 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,857 · $905/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,733/yr (+$644/mo · 247.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $288,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$61,617
• − Property taxes: −$3,124
• − Insurance: −$5,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$23,106
• − Management: −$23,106
• − Depreciation: −$32,000
• Taxable income: $140,373
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$33,690
• After-tax cash flow: $116,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624420
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,972
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #389 of 755 in NY

Livability — Remsenburg-Speonk

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Remsenburg-Speonk, NY
• City population: 1,346
• Population (ZIP): 309

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• Current HPI: 231.8516
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $835,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,124 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.