1220 Ellis Rd · Griffin, GA 30223

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1930 8,712 sqft lot Est $116k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2Bedroom/1Bath, New Carpet and Fresh Paint, Cash or Conventional Loan, Come Out To See This One. No Disclosure Seller Never Lived In Property, SOLD AS-IS, AGENT IS RELATED TO SELLER.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1930
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.3% in Griffin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#529 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Griffin-Spalding County (suburban): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #151 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Orrs Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #936 of 1,228 statewide, top 79%, 534 students, 98% FRL); Carver Road Middle School (math 16% / reading 25%, grade F, #345 of 470 statewide, top 74%, 471 students, 98% FRL); Griffin High School (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #331 of 424 statewide, top 78%, 1,498 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 68% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 342 units permitted in Spalding County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spalding County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 38% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.22%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,584
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1220 Ellis Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	896 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$112	99
1223 Herndon St	0.03mi	2/1.0	840 (-6%)	4mo	$149,900	$178	85
1117 Lake Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0	891 (-1%)	9mo	$165,000	$185	78
635 Garrett St	0.24mi	2/1.0	864 (-4%)	20mo	$95,500	$111	66
602 Melrose Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	950 (+6%)	6mo	$70,000	$74	66
626 Garrett St	0.23mi	2/1.0	930 (+4%)	22mo	$154,000	$166	64
1213 Drewry Ave	0.08mi	3/1.5 (+1)	962 (+7%)	17mo	$139,000	$144	63
1110 Lyndon Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+12%)	13mo	$130,000	$129	58
22 Chestnut St	0.37mi	2/1.0	988 (+10%)	14mo	$70,000	$71	54
41 Bleachery St	0.75mi	2/1.0	900 (+0%)	16mo	$134,900	$150	51
135 Peachtree St	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,025 (+14%)	9mo	$125,000	$122	47
348 N 17th St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,013 (+13%)	23mo	$125,000	$123	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-5,964
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $12,057
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30223

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 427
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,108 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $367/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $863

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 N 18th St Unit 417 D Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	865	$1,050	$1.21	44d	1	0.34mi
419 N 18th St Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	865	$1,050	$1.21	18d	1	0.37mi
419 N 18th St Unit F Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	865	$1,050	$1.21	24d	1	0.37mi
356 N 19th St Griffin, GA	2.0	1.5	896	$995	$1.11	1d	1	0.41mi
358 N 19th St Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	936	$1,025	$1.10	2d	1	0.43mi
405 N 15th St Unit A Griffin, GA	1.0	1.0	586	$650	$1.11	3d	1	0.50mi
813 W Quilly St Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	838	$1,200	$1.43	4d	1	0.51mi
731 Williams St Unit A Griffin, GA	1.0	1.0	770	$800	$1.04	44d	1	0.56mi
708 Ellis St Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,000	$1.30	3d	1	0.61mi
716 Ray St Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	788	$1,300	$1.65	44d	1	0.61mi
215 Hillside Cir Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	1002	$975	$0.97	24d	1	0.64mi
207 Hillside Cir Griffin, GA	3.0	1.0	1054	$1,100	$1.04	22d	1	0.67mi
353 N 13th St Unit 353 Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	1059	$950	$0.90	24d	1	0.68mi
113 Shandon Ln Griffin, GA	3.0	2.0	1075	$1,495	$1.39	44d	1	0.77mi
503 Wheeler St Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	1028	$1,250	$1.22	44d	1	0.81mi
502 W Broadway St Griffin, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1133	$1,745	$1.54	1d	17	0.85mi
212 Alabama St Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	728	$995	$1.37	44d	1	0.95mi
127 Tuscany Ln Griffin, GA	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,495	$1.34	5d	1	0.95mi
816 Lane St Griffin, GA	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,300	$1.16	44d	1	0.95mi
315 W Chappell St Unit 317 Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	980	$900	$0.92	24d	1	0.98mi
205 W Cherry St Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	972	$950	$0.98	3d	1	0.98mi
804 N 8th St Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	600	$750	$1.25	1d	30	0.99mi
724 W Taylor St Griffin, GA	1.0	1.0	650	$900	$1.38	44d	1	1.00mi
738 W Poplar St Unit 4 Griffin, GA	1.0	1.0	755	$600	$0.79	10d	1	1.06mi
217 W Central Ave Unit B Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	5d	1	1.08mi
1313 Ridgeview Dr Griffin, GA	3.0	1.0	840	$1,050	$1.25	24d	1	1.10mi
413 N Hill St Unit B Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	792	$875	$1.10	4d	1	1.10mi
614 W Poplar St Griffin, GA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	22d	1	1.11mi
616 W Poplar St Unit 1 Griffin, GA	1.0	1.0	900	$595	$0.66	22d	1	1.12mi
1048 W College Street Ext Griffin, GA	1.0	1.0	606	$750	$1.24	24d	1	1.15mi
617 Meriwether St Griffin, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0	745	$1,481	$1.99	1d	4	1.20mi
521 Meriwether St Unit A Triplex Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	44d	1	1.21mi
521 Meriwether St Unit C Triplex Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	1.21mi
521 Meriwether St Apt C Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,150	$1.44	44d	1	1.21mi
416 W Poplar St Griffin, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0	925	$1,436	$1.55	1d	4	1.22mi
117 Blanton Ave Unit A Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	718	$975	$1.36	24d	1	1.22mi
1344 D F Fuller Dr Griffin, GA	3.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	24d	1	1.25mi
422 Meriwether St Unit 2 Griffin, GA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	13d	1	1.26mi
1128 W College St Unit A-1 Model Unit Griffin, GA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	44d	1	1.29mi
1597 W McIntosh Rd Griffin, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	884	$1,376	$1.56	1d	17	1.30mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-02-10
   listed $115,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $367 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$691/yr (+$58/mo · 188.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 38% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$367
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,064
• − Management: −$1,064
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$106
• After-tax cash flow: $2,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Griffin-Spalding County
• NCES district ID: 1302520
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,895
• Composite: 13.71/100
• National rank: #9496
• State rank: #151 of 174 in GA

Livability — Griffin

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #23746

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Griffin, GA
• County: Spalding County · 66,676 people
• City population: 28,414
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 38,262
• Household income: $59,054
• Rent vs Own: 39.5% rent · 60.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Spalding County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,015 people
• By 2030: 61,689 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 57,932 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 53,474 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 43,228 · -31.4%
• By 2100: 32,290 · -48.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 38% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spalding

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.4% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+24.2 2012: R+20.0 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.92%
• Current HPI: 225.7933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.34%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $115,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $367 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.