12375 SW Cascade View Ln · Crooked River Ranch, OR 97734

$239,950

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,728 sqft · Other public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1995 9.79 ac lot $139/sqft · 49% below area Est $473k · 49% under $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come unplug on this almost 10-acre recreational escape with potential for true off-grid living. This cozy cabin could be your private hideaway. Designed for self-sufficiency, it features a wood-burning fireplace and opportunity for an LP fireplace. There is a spacious kitchen with a live-edge bar top for group gatherings after enjoying time in the outdoors. Upstairs, an open primary bedroom is bathed in natural light and opens to a large wrap-around deck with territorial views. Whether you're riding, exploring, or simply unplugging, this property supports a fully independent lifestyle. Located inside the gated Three Rivers community, you'll enjoy unmatched amenities: private marina and boat launch, sand beach and swim area, rec hall, paved airstrip, ATV and motorcycle riding, and more. This property has great potential, but will require some structural work.

Key facts

• Private marina
• Boat launch
• Live edge bar top

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• LIVE EDGE BAR TOP
• LARGE WRAP AROUND DECK
• TERRITORIAL VIEWS
• PRIVATE MARINA
• BOAT LAUNCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.4% in Crooked River Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Culver SD 4 (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #33 of 58 in OR (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 108 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,295 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $472,549
• List price: $239,950
• Delta: -49.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $122,606
• Equity at exit: $216,166

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.47×
• Total profit: $367,537
• Equity at exit: $466,170

Cash invested: $67,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97734

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,973 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$283 /mo · $3,395/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,134

Max offer price $217,418

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,988
• Closing costs: $7,198
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $239,950 Pending 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,950 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,950 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,950 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $239,950 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,950 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,950 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,950 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $239,950 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,950 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,950 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,950 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,950 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,950 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $249,950 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    Come unplug on this almost 10-acre recreational escape with potential for true off-grid living. This cozy cabin could be your private hideaway. Designed for self-sufficiency, it features a wood-burning fireplace and opportunity for an LP fireplace. There is a spacious kitchen with a live-edge bar top for group gatherings after enjoying time in the outdoors. Upstairs, an open primary bedroom is bathed in natural light and opens to a large wrap-around deck with territorial views. Whether you're riding, exploring, or simply unplugging, this property supports a fully independent lifestyle. Located inside the gated Three Rivers community, you'll enjoy unmatched amenities: private marina and boat launch, sand beach and swim area, rec hall, paved airstrip, ATV and motorcycle riding, and more. This property has great potential, but will require some structural work.

16. 2026-03-28
    price $284,950 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    Come unplug on this almost 10-acre recreational escape with potential for true off-grid living. This cozy cabin could be your private hideaway. Designed for self-sufficiency, it features a wood-burning fireplace and opportunity for an LP fireplace. There is a spacious kitchen with a live-edge bar top for group gatherings after enjoying time in the outdoors. Upstairs, an open primary bedroom is bathed in natural light and opens to a large wrap-around deck with territorial views. Whether you're riding, exploring, or simply unplugging, this property supports a fully independent lifestyle. Located inside the gated Three Rivers community, you'll enjoy unmatched amenities: private marina and boat launch, sand beach and swim area, rec hall, paved airstrip, ATV and motorcycle riding, and more. This property has great potential, but will require some structural work.

17. 2026-03-26
    listed $284 Active 870-char remark

    Show marketing remark (870 chars)

    Come unplug on this almost 10-acre recreational escape with potential for true off-grid living. This cozy cabin could be your private hideaway. Designed for self-sufficiency, it features a wood-burning fireplace and opportunity for an LP fireplace. There is a spacious kitchen with a live-edge bar top for group gatherings after enjoying time in the outdoors. Upstairs, an open primary bedroom is bathed in natural light and opens to a large wrap-around deck with territorial views. Whether you're riding, exploring, or simply unplugging, this property supports a fully independent lifestyle. Located inside the gated Three Rivers community, you'll enjoy unmatched amenities: private marina and boat launch, sand beach and swim area, rec hall, paved airstrip, ATV and motorcycle riding, and more. This property has great potential, but will require some structural work.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,395 · $283/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,395 · $283/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,441
• − Property taxes: −$3,395
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,894
• − Management: −$1,894
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$6,980
• Taxable loss: −$5,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,360
• After-tax cash flow: $-170/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Culver SD 4
• NCES district ID: 4103840
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $44,943
• Composite: 28.14/100
• National rank: #6816
• State rank: #33 of 58 in OR

Livability — Crooked River Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 8,185
• Population (ZIP): 3,647

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,040 people
• By 2030: 24,631 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 25,499 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 25,801 · +7.3%
• By 2075: 25,682 · +6.8%
• By 2100: 22,222 · -7.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Slovak 3% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 33.6% · R 63.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+16.8 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 84.23%
• Current HPI: 562.3014
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-12.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $249,950 MLSCO
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $284,950 MLSCO
• 2026-03-26 Listed $284 MLSCO

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,395 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.