10070 S Arabian Ave · Floral City, FL 34436

$164,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2002 1.00 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LOADS OF POTENTIAL WITH THIS 3 BED/2 BATH MOBILE ON AN ACRE IN DERBY OAKS OF FLORAL CITY! This one is ready for your personal touch! Newer roof and Newer HVAC, so you can spend your time and resources on the cosmetics and make this 1152 sqft living area (approx. ) your own! Even the lot is a blank slate for your vision. .. cleared with plenty of room to roam, put in a pool, sheds, landscaping or your garden! Popular split floor plan, with Primary Suite on one side of the home and the guest rooms on the other, to ensure maximum privacy. Large Great Room with a beautiful stone wood burning fireplace as the heart of the home. Large kitchen with combined dining space. Breakfast bar and pantry,

Key facts

• Cleared lot
• Newer roof
• Split floor plan

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER HVAC
• CLEARED LOT
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• STONE WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking; Driveway parking; Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Mobile home dimensions approximately 24' x 48'
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Rolling slope; Rectangular lot; Paved road frontage on a county road; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: Master on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate countertops; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Primary bedroom on main level; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $164,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $147,456.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $547 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.6% in Floral City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#573 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Floral City Elementary School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 389 students, 71% FRL); Inverness Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 1,017 students, 60% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,240 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.90%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,456
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9436 S Starfish Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,090 (-5%)	6mo	$140,000	$128	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $10,882
• Equity at exit: $21,986

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $54,086
• Equity at exit: $12,749

Cash invested: $41,288 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34436

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$773
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $484/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,108

Max offer price $147,456

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,864
• Closing costs: $4,424
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9789 S Clearsprings Dr Floral City, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,800	$1.35	4d	1	0.58mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $164,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $164,000
17. 2026-03-18
    listed $198,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,361 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$878/yr (+$73/mo · 181.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,260
• − Property taxes: −$484
• − Insurance: −$737
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,290
• Taxable income: $4,374
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,050
• After-tax cash flow: $5,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Floral City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #573
• US rank: #10898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Floral City, FL
• City population: 8,170
• Population (ZIP): 8,170

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.20%
• Current HPI: 374.4353
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-17.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $164,000 RACC
• 2026-03-18 Listed $198,000 RACC

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $484 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.