4 Polo Grounds Ln · East Quogue, NY 11942

$2,500,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,082 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2001 0.92 ac lot $811/sqft · 26% above area Est $1978k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked mid-block on a quiet cul-de-sacstreet, this beautifully appointed 4-bedroom, 4.5-bathroom home delivers the lifestyle you've been looking for. On the first floor, rooms flow seamlessly from one to the next. The eat-in kitchen is outfitted with stainless steel appliances and opens to a large dining room with sliders to the yard. The den features vaulted ceilings, a fireplace, and sliders leading to a light-filled sunroom. An en suite bedroom doubles as a home office, and a half bath rounds out this level. Upstairs, three bedrooms each enjoy access to spa-caliber bathrooms — thoughtfully updated with the finishes you'd expect in a luxury hotel. The primary suite impresses with generous closets and a private balcony overlooking the lush yard below. The finished basement is currently configured as a home theater and separate recreation room, complete with a full bath. Out back, your private retreat awaits with a heated pool, jacuzzi, tennis court, and built-in BBQ you and your guests will never be bored. Minutes to beaches, dining, and everything East Quogue has to offer

Key facts

• Light-filled sunroom
• En suite bedroom
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LIGHT-FILLED SUNROOM
• EN SUITE BEDROOM
• SPA-CALIBER BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($69k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $2.50M).
• Recommended offer: $2.35M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $75k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.35M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1.36M; list at $2.50M implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,350,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.83%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,978,151
• List price: $2,500,000
• Delta: 26.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Fox Hollow Dr	0.21mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,800 (-9%)	10mo	$1,899,900	$679	60
10 Fox Hollow Dr	0.12mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,800 (-9%)	17mo	$1,720,000	$614	58
100 Whippoorwill Ln	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,800 (-9%)	18mo	$1,500,000	$536	39
145 Damascus Rd	0.40mi	4/5.5 (+1)	3,500 (+14%)	17mo	$1,500,000	$429	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-40,747
• Equity at exit: $372,758

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $431,640
• Equity at exit: $216,154

Cash invested: $700,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $26,771 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,110
• Tax from tax record: −$1,265 /mo · $15,181/yr
• Insurance: −$1,042
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,622
• Net cashflow: $5,732

Break-even live

Break-even rent $19,515

Max offer price $2,500,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $625,000
• Closing costs: $75,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Fox Hollow Dr East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.5	2750	$30,000	$10.91	44d	1	0.12mi
114 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.0	2201	$18,000	$8.18	19d	1	0.57mi
69 Whippoorwill Ln Patchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2945	$20,000	$6.79	1d	1	0.62mi
73 Spinney Rd East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.5	2400	$25,000	$10.42	19d	1	0.64mi
1 Whippoorwill Ln East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2483	$29,000	$11.68	5d	1	0.67mi
9 The Registry East Quogue, NY	4.0	4.5	2734	$30,000	$10.97	44d	1	1.03mi
10 Pennant Ln East Quogue, NY	4.0	3.5	2800	$80,000	$28.57	22d	1	1.18mi
32A Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	4.0	5.0	4442	$23,000	$5.18	11d	1	1.20mi
11 Post Xing East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	2926	$20,000	$6.84	19d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,500,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,500,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    listed $2,500,000 Active 1100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1100 chars)

    Tucked mid-block on a quiet cul-de-sacstreet, this beautifully appointed 4-bedroom, 4.5-bathroom home delivers the lifestyle you've been looking for. On the first floor, rooms flow seamlessly from one to the next. The eat-in kitchen is outfitted with stainless steel appliances and opens to a large dining room with sliders to the yard. The den features vaulted ceilings, a fireplace, and sliders leading to a light-filled sunroom. An en suite bedroom doubles as a home office, and a half bath rounds out this level. Upstairs, three bedrooms each enjoy access to spa-caliber bathrooms — thoughtfully updated with the finishes you'd expect in a luxury hotel. The primary suite impresses with generous closets and a private balcony overlooking the lush yard below. The finished basement is currently configured as a home theater and separate recreation room, complete with a full bath. Out back, your private retreat awaits with a heated pool, jacuzzi, tennis court, and built-in BBQ you and your guests will never be bored. Minutes to beaches, dining, and everything East Quogue has to offer

16. 2007-05-30
    soldstatus $1,365,000
17. 2001-05-17
    soldstatus $659,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,181 · $1,265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $28,715 · $2,393/mo
• Expected delta: +$13,535/yr (+$1,128/mo · 89.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $321,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$140,039
• − Property taxes: −$15,181
• − Insurance: −$12,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$25,701
• − Management: −$25,701
• − Depreciation: −$72,727
• Taxable income: $29,409
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,058
• After-tax cash flow: $61,731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+279.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $2,500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $1,365,000 Public Records
• 2001-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $659,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $15,181 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.