809 W Grand Ave · Artesia, NM 88210

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 1950 7,000 sqft lot $119/sqft · 90% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute house with a large lot! This house was recently updated adding so many features including but not limited to huge windows for natural light, formal dining area between kitchen and living room. The kitchen has long granite counter tops, the closets are oversized. There was a big garden in the back with corn, watermelon, cucumbers, lettuce and spinach growing. There are so many possibilities with this house ready for someone to make it a home. Call your favorite realtor today!

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story / one level
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built with traditional wood construction
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Free‑standing range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#75 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Artesia Public Schools (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #17 of 95 in NM (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.00%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $76,241
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 90.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $21,742
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $77,128
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88210

• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,062 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,172/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,163

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $793	-5% $752	+0% $711	+5% $670	+10% $629
Rent	-10% $548	-5% $629	+0% $711	+5% $792	+10% $874
Rate	-1.0pp $784	-0.5pp $747	base $711	+0.5pp $673	+1.0pp $635

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 N 7th St Artesia, NM	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	45d	1	0.66mi
2106 W Bullock Ave Artesia, NM	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,800	$1.36	45d	1	1.02mi
101 N 25th St Artesia, NM	1.0	1.0	775	$1,088	$1.40	45d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $145,000 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $145,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $145,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $145,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $145,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-04-29
    listed $145,000 Active 346-char remark
11. 2025-01-02
    price $160,000
12. 2024-12-16
    price $165,000
13. 2023-05-15
    soldstatus
14. 2023-05-12
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Cute house with a large lot! This house was recently updated adding so many features including but not limited to huge windows for natural light, formal dining area between kitchen and living room. The kitchen has long granite counter tops, the closets are oversized. There was a big garden in the back with corn, watermelon, cucumbers, lettuce and spinach growing. There are so many possibilities with this house ready for someone to make it a home. Call your favorite realtor today!

15. 2023-02-25
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Cute house with a large lot! This house was recently updated adding so many features including but not limited to huge windows for natural light, formal dining area between kitchen and living room. The kitchen has long granite counter tops, the closets are oversized. There was a big garden in the back with corn, watermelon, cucumbers, lettuce and spinach growing. There are so many possibilities with this house ready for someone to make it a home. Call your favorite realtor today!

16. 2023-01-30
    listed $160,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Cute house with a large lot! This house was recently updated adding so many features including but not limited to huge windows for natural light, formal dining area between kitchen and living room. The kitchen has long granite counter tops, the closets are oversized. There was a big garden in the back with corn, watermelon, cucumbers, lettuce and spinach growing. There are so many possibilities with this house ready for someone to make it a home. Call your favorite realtor today!

17. 2015-03-26
    soldstatus
18. 2015-02-21
    listed $73,000
19. 2008-10-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,172 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,172 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,172
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,980
• − Management: −$1,980
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $6,549
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,572
• After-tax cash flow: $6,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Artesia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500120
• Math proficiency: 29% —
• Reading proficiency: 42% —
• Median HH income: $51,397
• Composite: 33.48/100
• National rank: #10522
• State rank: #17 of 95 in NM

Livability — Artesia

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #15300

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Artesia, NM
• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 18,542
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 18,542
• Household income: $79,632
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 159.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 40% Two or more races 19% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -238.85%
• Current HPI: 115.6107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+98.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — NMMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $145,000 NMMLS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $160,000 NMMLS
• 2024-12-16 Price Changed $165,000 NMMLS
• 2023-05-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-12 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2023-02-25 Pending — NMMLS
• 2023-01-30 Listed $160,000 NMMLS
• 2015-03-26 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2015-02-21 Listed $73,000 NMMLS
• 2008-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,172 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.